Posted on 10/14/2010 12:58:39 PM PDT by InterceptPoint
I really don’t think we have to worry about October surprises as they are almost always aimed at socon transgressions, and this cycle is solely about fiscon.
I heard O’Donnell on Hannity today, and she said RNC is supporting her, it’s the Senatorial Committee (NRSC) that isn’t.
PJ: Is this a practical thing to do? If so, you should run it with both the Poll/Expert and Expert only models.
I’ll have what you’re having, please!
HELP OUST STEVE COHEN (D) & SEND 1st BLACK REPUBLICAN WOMAN TO CONGRESS IN HIS PLACE.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/2607719/posts
So did the Dems pull the plug on the IL-11 race? I didn’t see Debbie Halvorson’s awful commercial during the 10 o’clock news last night...Go Adam Kinzinger!
The problem with Monte Carlo trials, and statistical models in general, is that they are highly dependent on static assumptions. Small variations from the assumptions can produce results that differ wildly from predictions. (Think Global Warming models).
Lesson: Forget about the predictions. Get out the vote!
outstanding work
“Political Junkie Too, the resident statistical wiz at Freerepublic.com”
Hardly. I’m still waiting on a response to using the Logistics Regression Function. He does not know what the variance of his distributions are. They are not the margin of error. He does not know if the central limit theorem applies. He does not know how to forecast based on a sampling of past data. He has not developed a model to do any sort of Kalman filter.
Anybody can do a Monti Carlo simulation. All one needs is a decent excel add-in. The fact that he’s done a Monti Carlo simulation tells me that he doesn’t know statistics.
A Monti Carlo simulation will assume, by default, that the races are statistically independent random events. It will assume that there are no covariances, that there is no systematic relationship between one race and another. There is no physics in it.
This is one BIG reason why this thread is utter and complete crap. Crap.
Monti Carlo simulations are why Wall Street badly invested so much money in mortgages. They never properly figured out the systematic way the price of one house could vary in the same way as the price of another house 100 miles away.
KHR should be banned from FreeRepublic for senselessly pimping its blog.
“Yes, I heard they are taking the money from other races they have deemed they cannot win and sending it to Nevada to help Reid. I need to make another donation to Sharron Angle. Also one to O’Donnell as the RNC is not supporting her.”
Thank you. I’m scattering money to various Conservatives around the fruited plain, as well as doorbelling and calling. We can all do something these last 18 days!
BTW: WA State is almost all mail in ballots - and the ballots are about to drop. I think that race will be decided in the next 10 days. We’ll have an agressive ‘vote chase’ (calling) effort going on in WA 1.
Pray for fair counts - good representation for the GOP in the counting facilities.
“Lesson: Forget about the predictions. Get out the vote!”
Step back for a minute. If the GOP were down in the Generic Congressional polls, it would be discouraging. Such is most definitely the case for the RATs and even the registered RATS are discouraged. Now they’ll have to produce twice as many (or 10 times as many or whatever multiple) dead, convicted, illegal, fake voters. And let’s face it, it aint easy being a dead voter and it sure aint easy being the precinct captain for a bunch of dead voters.
The fact that the GOP is up in the Generic Congressional polling gives us all spring in our steps, a song in our hearts...you know...helps us GOTV.
So polling and predicitions are not completely worthless or unimportant, even if modeling and sample constitution are imperfect.
I did have a look at the 70% rule system. It’s not bad but I think the methods that assess the election based on polls at the district level yield the best results. We’ll know soon.
Oooo, I pray it holds true!! Thanks for pinging.
Dem death panels.......I like that concept.
Thanks for the ping!
you saved me a lot of trouble ... now I don’t hafta pull out the stats books that I haven’t touched since I flunked an actuarial exam. Which was before I flunked a CFA exam.
Now that I am useless at stats, i am useless at everything. The only thing I know how to do is take the candidate flyer and attach it to the door knob and get away before the dog gets out.
A good leaflet drop on a lower ballot race ... I figure is worth 2% or more on election day. And if you stand out at the polls palmcarding people with no competitor ... can be as high as 3% in a state house race.
thanks for the updates!
I’ll guess 92 seats. I think any Republican now polling with 10 points of a dem incumbent still has a chance. Any Republican within 7 points is 50/50 and anyone within 3 points will win. (assuming the polls are likely voters)
In states with the Sarah Palin effect, where a
Republican woman has been demeaned with terms like stupid, crazy, nuts, right wing nutjob, whore, or witch, the polls are totally unreliable. Voters including many women may be “embarrassed” to admit to pollsters they are voting for a woman who has been branded by the MSM as unfit. For this reason I believe that Christine O’Donnell still has a good chance of winning and also that Sharron Angle will win decisively.
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