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Real Clear Politics: 112th House - 222 GOP, 36 Toss Ups, 177 Democrats
Real Clear Politics ^ | October 24, 2010

Posted on 10/24/2010 7:28:06 PM PDT by topher

Battle for the House

Current House: 255 Democrats | 178 Republicans | 2 Vacancies

Projections October 24, 2010:

222 GOP, 36 Toss Ups, 177 Democrat

Link:

Battle for the House

Governor Races update (10/24/2010):

27 GOP, 8 Toss Ups, 15 Democrat

Link to Governor Races:

2010 Governor Races: Current Governors: 26 Democrats | 24 Republicans

Finally, the US Senate:

44 GOP, 8 Toss Ups, 48 Democrat

Link for US Senate Races:

Battle for the Senate: Current Senate: 59* Democrats | 41 Republicans

(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...


TOPICS: Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: rcp; realclearpolitics
I initially posted info on this on October 15, 2010. That thread on FreeRepublic is below. The only real movement is in the House. At that time, the GOP was 7 seats short of the majority. Now they are forecast at majority + 4...

RealClearPolitics Gov: 27 GOP, 7 Toss, 16 Dem; House 211 GOP, 39 Toss, 185 Dem

The trend tends to give the GOP more and more seats in the House, and according to these numbers, the GOP has the majority by 4 seats without any of the Toss Ups or Leans Democrat.

Some claim that Real Clear Politics uses very liberal polls that favor the Democrats. If that is true, then the Democrats are in very serious trouble in the House, and Republicans might get the 100 seat swing in this election.

1 posted on 10/24/2010 7:28:11 PM PDT by topher
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To: topher

That is amazing.

I hope it gets even better!

They need to know that the country is p*ssed off and sick of their crap!


2 posted on 10/24/2010 7:33:13 PM PDT by kcvl
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To: topher

Also makes you question a lot of the recent polls that supposedly show senate and governors races moving in the Dems favor..it’s counterintuitive..like in Ohio, wherethe GOP will pick up FIVE Dems House seats, yet they say that Strickland is even with Kasich..so way...Every time the House has changed hands, the Senate also goes, and it’s gonna happen again thisa year..


3 posted on 10/24/2010 7:38:32 PM PDT by ken5050 (I don't need sex.....the government screws me every day..)
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To: kcvl

I appreciate these kinds of postings....


4 posted on 10/24/2010 7:38:53 PM PDT by cherry
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To: cherry

Looking at the changes by Rassmussen over the last 2 weeks you can see momentum building for the Republican / Tea Party


5 posted on 10/24/2010 7:41:26 PM PDT by stocksthatgoup
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To: topher

I was part of a boots on the ground house to house literature drop in Bangor yesterday. Internal polls show LaPage should win handily as the RCP governors map indicates. The moonbat Demorat nominee Libby Mitchell may actually come in third. Republicans may take back the state senate and will pick up seats in the house.
This is important because Maine does not elect state-wide government officers except for governor. The state does not have a lt. governor and the other state offices such as attorney general, secretary of state etc. are appointed by the legislature which has pretty much been controlled by the Demorats since about 1975. The Republicans last won the governor’s office in 1990 (Snowe’s husband, McKernan.


6 posted on 10/24/2010 7:41:42 PM PDT by Maine Mariner
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To: ken5050
As soon as this election is over, then people have to start working on 2012 and 2014. The Democrats are in real trouble in those two elections in the Senate.

Even if we get someone like Sarah Palin in 2012 as President, and have a solid majority in the House, we still need 56 or more Senate Seats to make up for the RINO's in the Senate such as the two women from Maine as well as other liberal GOP Senators.

7 posted on 10/24/2010 7:43:43 PM PDT by topher (For handmade rosaries -- http://www.louisiana.edu/~cmh5722/rosaries4u)
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To: topher

I thought Juan Williams just said today on Fox News Sunday that the Democrats were making a comeback.


8 posted on 10/24/2010 7:44:30 PM PDT by Ol' Sparky (Liberal Republicans are the greater of two evils)
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To: cherry
Hopefully there is a Tsunami headed their way! They are so arrogant and condescending and it makes me sick!

Good and honest people are hurting and they don't seem to give a damn! Disgusting!

9 posted on 10/24/2010 7:45:39 PM PDT by kcvl
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To: Ol' Sparky
Just like the Phillies and Yankees.
10 posted on 10/24/2010 7:53:02 PM PDT by JPG (Sarah Palin says: "Buck-up or get out of the truck.")
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To: topher

Thanks for posting this great asset to FReeRepublic!!


11 posted on 10/24/2010 7:55:28 PM PDT by mojo114 (On to November 2!)
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To: topher

If the toss ups go 50-50, were looking at a GOP House with 240 GOP seats, 31 GOP Governorships, and 48 GOP Senators.

Just about what I have been expecting for a while as far as congress goes, but thats over +60 in the House while I expect +50 to 55.

We will see.


12 posted on 10/24/2010 8:01:59 PM PDT by Ted Grant
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To: topher

Hope the final result is better than 255 Republicans to 178 rats.


13 posted on 10/24/2010 8:19:01 PM PDT by dr_who
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To: Ted Grant

Toss ups will break 70-30 gop


14 posted on 10/24/2010 8:25:06 PM PDT by Tennessean4Bush (An optimist believes we live in the best of all possible worlds. A pessimist fears this is true.)
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To: Tennessean4Bush

If it’s truly a toss up, then I’ll predict 50-50 and see what happens.


15 posted on 10/24/2010 8:32:35 PM PDT by Ted Grant
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To: Ted Grant

OK, I’m going to make a prediction.

The GOP takes back the House and the Senate.

If I win, what do I get? :-)


16 posted on 10/24/2010 8:34:20 PM PDT by Victoria Delsoul
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To: Tennessean4Bush
Toss ups will break 70-30 gop

In a wave election, the party with the momentum historically takes 70% of the Toss Ups. You are correct.

17 posted on 10/24/2010 8:35:22 PM PDT by randita (Visit keyhouseraces.com to find GOP House candidates who need your support to knock off a DEM.)
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To: Victoria Delsoul

You win peace of mind for a couple of years!

Hey Victoria, long time no see, I hope all is well Where have you been?


18 posted on 10/24/2010 8:41:25 PM PDT by Ted Grant
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To: Ted Grant
Hey Teddy, how are ya?

Been busy. Sold my townhouse and bought a nice house with a great backyard, so I've been busy decorating it and getting furniture to fill it up. Lots of work though, but I think it's a good investment.

I trust you're doing well. I'm looking forward to Nov 3! Can't wait.

19 posted on 10/24/2010 8:48:46 PM PDT by Victoria Delsoul
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To: Victoria Delsoul

Hey, congrats! Good luck with the new place!


20 posted on 10/24/2010 8:56:10 PM PDT by Ted Grant
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To: ken5050
senate and governors races are state wide... while house seats are heavily gerrymandered (by federal law) to ensure that at least a few blacks are elected to congress.

Which means that a huge percentage of Obama supporters are concentrated into just a handful of districts nationwide.

Obama’s approval right now is only about 36% when the black racist vote is not included, which explains why the house numbers look so bad compared to the senate presently.

21 posted on 10/24/2010 9:59:44 PM PDT by TexasFreeper2009 (Obama = Epic Fail)
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To: topher

coming soon, the foreign policy president


22 posted on 10/24/2010 10:02:29 PM PDT by Talf
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To: kcvl

We need to remember that this is just the beginning of the battle to take back America.

After the election, we need to hold all elected servants accountable, and work to find able conservatives for the next round of elections in 2 years.

We have just begun to fight!


23 posted on 10/24/2010 10:05:13 PM PDT by airborne (Why is it we won't allow the Bible in school, but we will in prison? Think about it.)
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To: topher

absolutely.....I want us to win a good number this time but the work begins immediately after the election...


24 posted on 10/24/2010 10:11:56 PM PDT by cherry
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To: ken5050
Also makes you question a lot of the recent polls that supposedly show senate and governors races moving in the Dems favor

What you are seeing is a common ploy by pollsters that happens every election. As the election draws near, they have the polls close up, hopefully to within the "margin of error" (3-4%) so that if the outcome/winner is different than their polling numbers, they can preserve their credibility by claiming it was too close to call.

Remember, polling is their paycheck, and they won't get hired if their track record is lousy. So there is a premium to get the final results within that margin of error band so that their reputations are preserved.

25 posted on 10/24/2010 10:23:43 PM PDT by oldbill
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To: randita
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/senate/2010_elections_senate_map_no_toss_ups.html

United States Senate-pickups needed for takeover = 10

AR • CO • IL • IN • NV • ND • PA • WI- W.VA = 9

(chances for pickup of all of these states = 8 in 10 West Virginia being the least likely for the Republicans but Reese has just been given a lead by Rasmussen-the best pollster)

Republicans must pickup 1 out of the following 4 states:

CA -WA = 2

(chances for a pickup in California = 1 in 3 chances for a pickup in Washington = 1 in 4 these are conservative odds the Republican is moving up in Washington and Boxer cannot get above 45% the death knell for incumbents)

sub total = 11

DEL - CON = 2

(chances for pickup in Connecticut = 1 in 6

(chances for pickup in Delaware = 1 in 10

total = 13

My guess for a takeover: 50-50

(admittedly these odds are set down without the slightest concern for arithmetic but recent reports show Republicans doing well in the early voting and that leaves the independents to weigh in who are nearly 2 to 1 polling against the rats. I think it is normal to see a tightening in the run-up but that tightening to cease and the wave to break at the last minute for the wave party. The early voting indications support that theory.)

My guess as to pickups in the House = 65


26 posted on 10/24/2010 11:43:32 PM PDT by nathanbedford ("Attack, repeat, attack!" Bull Halsey)
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To: Ted Grant

puppies will win WAY more than 50% of the toss ups
75% is a better guess


27 posted on 10/25/2010 1:25:54 AM PDT by genghis
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To: ken5050

Yeah, but note the PA poll today that showed Toomey gaining eight points SINCE THE POLL STARTED and now with a solid, but not overwhelming, lead.


28 posted on 10/25/2010 4:20:02 AM PDT by LS ("Castles made of sand, fall in the sea . . . eventually." (Hendrix))
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To: nathanbedford; Tribune7

Muhlenberg just released another poll (10/21-24) showing Toomey ahead 47-42. Their poll last week showing Sestak gaining ground caused a huge tizzy. Now we’re back where we should be.


29 posted on 10/25/2010 5:59:26 AM PDT by randita (Visit keyhouseraces.com to find GOP House candidates who need your support to knock off a DEM.)
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To: genghis

Seems to me a toss up means it is as likely to go GOP as it is to go dem. So I’ll stick with a conservative estimate for now.


30 posted on 10/25/2010 9:03:48 AM PDT by Ted Grant
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To: Ted Grant

historically
toss ups go to the anti incumbent 75%
this is going to be an election for the ages


31 posted on 10/25/2010 2:04:07 PM PDT by genghis
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To: topher
There has been movement today that is surprising.

Two safe Democrat Seats were changed to Likely Democrat seats. And, some other races (GOP) were changed from Leans GOP to Toss Ups.

The races are getting tighter and tighter.

Fair weather appears to be headed for most of the country on Tuesday, with the exception of Washington state (front may be moving through).

32 posted on 10/28/2010 12:56:35 PM PDT by topher (For handmade rosaries -- http://www.louisiana.edu/~cmh5722/rosaries4u)
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To: genghis
historically
toss ups go to the anti incumbent 75%

I saw this over at NRO just now, looking at some analysis by Cook and Rothenberg predicting a 57 House seat pickup for the GOP:

What about the toss-ups? They break only slightly toward the winning party. In 2008, Cook rated 35 races as toss-ups; Democrats won 19 of them, or 54 percent. In 2006, he rated 39 races as toss-ups; Democrats won 22 of them, or 56 percent.

Rothenberg’s ratings are more complicated, but obtain nearly similar results. In 2008, he said 14 races were pure toss-ups; Democrats won seven of them. Democrats won nine of the 13 races labeled as tilting Democratic, and Republicans won all of toss-ups tilting their way. All together, Democrats won exactly half of the 32 toss-ups. In 2006, Democrats won ten of the 19 pure toss-ups, all of the races that were tilting Democratic, and one of the ten tilting Republican. Combine all the toss-ups and Democrats won 21 of 40, or 52.5 percent.

This makes sense to me, and is closer to the 50-50 tossup split that I figured. I don't know why you think to-ups go 75% for the anti-incumbent. It's just not true.

33 posted on 10/29/2010 12:58:19 PM PDT by Ted Grant
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