Skip to comments.Real Clear Politics: 112th House - 222 GOP, 36 Toss Ups, 177 Democrats
Posted on 10/24/2010 7:28:06 PM PDT by topher
Current House: 255 Democrats | 178 Republicans | 2 Vacancies
Projections October 24, 2010:
222 GOP, 36 Toss Ups, 177 Democrat
Battle for the House
Governor Races update (10/24/2010):
27 GOP, 8 Toss Ups, 15 Democrat
Link to Governor Races:
2010 Governor Races: Current Governors: 26 Democrats | 24 Republicans
Finally, the US Senate:
44 GOP, 8 Toss Ups, 48 Democrat
Link for US Senate Races:
Battle for the Senate: Current Senate: 59* Democrats | 41 Republicans
(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...
The trend tends to give the GOP more and more seats in the House, and according to these numbers, the GOP has the majority by 4 seats without any of the Toss Ups or Leans Democrat.
Some claim that Real Clear Politics uses very liberal polls that favor the Democrats. If that is true, then the Democrats are in very serious trouble in the House, and Republicans might get the 100 seat swing in this election.
That is amazing.
I hope it gets even better!
They need to know that the country is p*ssed off and sick of their crap!
Also makes you question a lot of the recent polls that supposedly show senate and governors races moving in the Dems favor..it’s counterintuitive..like in Ohio, wherethe GOP will pick up FIVE Dems House seats, yet they say that Strickland is even with Kasich..so way...Every time the House has changed hands, the Senate also goes, and it’s gonna happen again thisa year..
I appreciate these kinds of postings....
Looking at the changes by Rassmussen over the last 2 weeks you can see momentum building for the Republican / Tea Party
I was part of a boots on the ground house to house literature drop in Bangor yesterday. Internal polls show LaPage should win handily as the RCP governors map indicates. The moonbat Demorat nominee Libby Mitchell may actually come in third. Republicans may take back the state senate and will pick up seats in the house.
This is important because Maine does not elect state-wide government officers except for governor. The state does not have a lt. governor and the other state offices such as attorney general, secretary of state etc. are appointed by the legislature which has pretty much been controlled by the Demorats since about 1975. The Republicans last won the governor’s office in 1990 (Snowe’s husband, McKernan.
Even if we get someone like Sarah Palin in 2012 as President, and have a solid majority in the House, we still need 56 or more Senate Seats to make up for the RINO's in the Senate such as the two women from Maine as well as other liberal GOP Senators.
I thought Juan Williams just said today on Fox News Sunday that the Democrats were making a comeback.
Good and honest people are hurting and they don't seem to give a damn! Disgusting!
Thanks for posting this great asset to FReeRepublic!!
If the toss ups go 50-50, were looking at a GOP House with 240 GOP seats, 31 GOP Governorships, and 48 GOP Senators.
Just about what I have been expecting for a while as far as congress goes, but thats over +60 in the House while I expect +50 to 55.
We will see.
Hope the final result is better than 255 Republicans to 178 rats.
Toss ups will break 70-30 gop
If it’s truly a toss up, then I’ll predict 50-50 and see what happens.
OK, I’m going to make a prediction.
The GOP takes back the House and the Senate.
If I win, what do I get? :-)
In a wave election, the party with the momentum historically takes 70% of the Toss Ups. You are correct.
You win peace of mind for a couple of years!
Hey Victoria, long time no see, I hope all is well Where have you been?
Been busy. Sold my townhouse and bought a nice house with a great backyard, so I've been busy decorating it and getting furniture to fill it up. Lots of work though, but I think it's a good investment.
I trust you're doing well. I'm looking forward to Nov 3! Can't wait.
Hey, congrats! Good luck with the new place!
Which means that a huge percentage of Obama supporters are concentrated into just a handful of districts nationwide.
Obama’s approval right now is only about 36% when the black racist vote is not included, which explains why the house numbers look so bad compared to the senate presently.
coming soon, the foreign policy president
We need to remember that this is just the beginning of the battle to take back America.
After the election, we need to hold all elected servants accountable, and work to find able conservatives for the next round of elections in 2 years.
We have just begun to fight!
absolutely.....I want us to win a good number this time but the work begins immediately after the election...
What you are seeing is a common ploy by pollsters that happens every election. As the election draws near, they have the polls close up, hopefully to within the "margin of error" (3-4%) so that if the outcome/winner is different than their polling numbers, they can preserve their credibility by claiming it was too close to call.
Remember, polling is their paycheck, and they won't get hired if their track record is lousy. So there is a premium to get the final results within that margin of error band so that their reputations are preserved.
United States Senate-pickups needed for takeover = 10
AR CO IL IN NV ND PA WI- W.VA = 9
(chances for pickup of all of these states = 8 in 10 West Virginia being the least likely for the Republicans but Reese has just been given a lead by Rasmussen-the best pollster)
Republicans must pickup 1 out of the following 4 states:
CA -WA = 2
(chances for a pickup in California = 1 in 3 chances for a pickup in Washington = 1 in 4 these are conservative odds the Republican is moving up in Washington and Boxer cannot get above 45% the death knell for incumbents)
sub total = 11
DEL - CON = 2
(chances for pickup in Connecticut = 1 in 6
(chances for pickup in Delaware = 1 in 10
total = 13
My guess for a takeover: 50-50
(admittedly these odds are set down without the slightest concern for arithmetic but recent reports show Republicans doing well in the early voting and that leaves the independents to weigh in who are nearly 2 to 1 polling against the rats. I think it is normal to see a tightening in the run-up but that tightening to cease and the wave to break at the last minute for the wave party. The early voting indications support that theory.)
My guess as to pickups in the House = 65
puppies will win WAY more than 50% of the toss ups
75% is a better guess
Yeah, but note the PA poll today that showed Toomey gaining eight points SINCE THE POLL STARTED and now with a solid, but not overwhelming, lead.
Muhlenberg just released another poll (10/21-24) showing Toomey ahead 47-42. Their poll last week showing Sestak gaining ground caused a huge tizzy. Now we’re back where we should be.
Seems to me a toss up means it is as likely to go GOP as it is to go dem. So I’ll stick with a conservative estimate for now.
toss ups go to the anti incumbent 75%
this is going to be an election for the ages
Two safe Democrat Seats were changed to Likely Democrat seats. And, some other races (GOP) were changed from Leans GOP to Toss Ups.
The races are getting tighter and tighter.
Fair weather appears to be headed for most of the country on Tuesday, with the exception of Washington state (front may be moving through).
I saw this over at NRO just now, looking at some analysis by Cook and Rothenberg predicting a 57 House seat pickup for the GOP:
What about the toss-ups? They break only slightly toward the winning party. In 2008, Cook rated 35 races as toss-ups; Democrats won 19 of them, or 54 percent. In 2006, he rated 39 races as toss-ups; Democrats won 22 of them, or 56 percent.
Rothenbergs ratings are more complicated, but obtain nearly similar results. In 2008, he said 14 races were pure toss-ups; Democrats won seven of them. Democrats won nine of the 13 races labeled as tilting Democratic, and Republicans won all of toss-ups tilting their way. All together, Democrats won exactly half of the 32 toss-ups. In 2006, Democrats won ten of the 19 pure toss-ups, all of the races that were tilting Democratic, and one of the ten tilting Republican. Combine all the toss-ups and Democrats won 21 of 40, or 52.5 percent.
This makes sense to me, and is closer to the 50-50 tossup split that I figured. I don't know why you think to-ups go 75% for the anti-incumbent. It's just not true.