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The culture of building confidence in climate models
Climate Etc. ^
| October 10, 2010
| Judith Curry
Posted on 10/27/2010 12:08:24 PM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach
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To: steelyourfaith; Tolerance Sucks Rocks; SunkenCiv; Paul Pierett; neverdem; I got the rope; ...
To: Ernest_at_the_Beach
If they want their science to have any credibility, they need to get the politics out. And building a consensus by intimidation and academic terrorism is not how to go about it.
3
posted on
10/27/2010 12:21:27 PM PDT
by
Spok
(Free Range Republican)
To: Ernest_at_the_Beach
“As the climate models become increasingly policy relevant, it is critically important to address the public need for high-quality models for decision making and to establish public confidence in these models.”
Translation: We need to do a better job of brainwashing!!
4
posted on
10/27/2010 12:25:31 PM PDT
by
aquila48
To: Ernest_at_the_Beach
lf an airplane or financial model is flawed, it soon becomes apperent; the plane doesn’t fly or the company loses money. Climate models cannot be. In fact if their proponents get their way, the failure to happen only proves that their prescriptins worked.
5
posted on
10/27/2010 12:31:00 PM PDT
by
Hugin
(Remember the first rule of gunfighting...have a gun..-- Col. Jeff Cooper)
To: Ernest_at_the_Beach
With climate models being increasingly used to provide policy-relevant information, how should we proceed in building public confidence in them?”
How about if climate propagandists were to quit omitting, falsefying, and destroying data that doesn’t support their predetermined conclusions.
6
posted on
10/27/2010 12:31:00 PM PDT
by
bereanway
To: Spok
The whole “climate change” spectacle is the fulfillment of a century of intellectual rot in academia and science. The insanity that was tolerated in the polysci and other mush disciplines has finally spread over to the hard sciences.
Science + (Religion, Politics, or $$$$) does NOT = Science. Its a simple equation really.
7
posted on
10/27/2010 12:39:17 PM PDT
by
Mad_as_heck
(The MSM - America's (domestic) public enemy #1.)
To: aquila48
“it is critically important to address the public need for high-quality models for decision making and to establish public confidence in these models.
This is the BS... we do not need “high quality models for decision making”, mainly because we couldn’t change the climate if we wanted to. We should develop the means to deal with what we have to deal with as climate changes, not try to change the climate.
8
posted on
10/27/2010 12:54:07 PM PDT
by
CIDKauf
(No man has a good enough memory to be a successful liar.)
To: Ernest_at_the_Beach
Heck the Farmer’s Almanac has been doing a good job of long term weather prediction for years. Interestingly enough, they use SUNSPOT information in forming their predictions.
9
posted on
10/27/2010 12:59:15 PM PDT
by
SuziQ
To: Ernest_at_the_Beach; WL-law; bamahead; carolinablonde; SolitaryMan; rdl6989; livius; DollyCali; ...
10
posted on
10/27/2010 1:10:26 PM PDT
by
steelyourfaith
(ObamaCare Death Panels: a Final Solution to the looming Social Security crisis ?)
To: SuziQ
I just got the 2011 edition...guess I should open it up.
To: Ernest_at_the_Beach
“claims are being made that climate models have been falsified by failing to predict specific future events”
For example, where are all those devastating hurricanes that Al Gore warned about?
Katrina and Rita were in 2005. According to Al and the “climate science” jokers, we should have had a dozen Katrina-scale events since then. Heck, some of the alarmist “experts” predicted five hurricanes would wreck substantial damage on US coasts in 2006 alone.
Of course, there will be hurricanes in the future, but “climate science” has been a dismal failure in its predictions.
To: Ernest_at_the_Beach
Verification and Validation for [Earth System Models] is hard because running the models is an expensive proposition (a fully coupled simulation run can take weeks to complete), and because there is rarely a correct result expert
Translation: Transform an entire global economy based upon lousy science and Climate Change advocates' "gut feeling"
13
posted on
10/27/2010 1:33:22 PM PDT
by
RedMonqey
(What we obtain too cheap, we esteem too lightly)
To: Ernest_at_the_Beach
Verification and Validation for [Earth System Models] is hard because running the models is an expensive proposition (a fully coupled simulation run can take weeks to complete), and because there is rarely a correct result expert
Translation: Transform an entire global economy based upon lousy science and Climate Change advocates' "gut feeling"
14
posted on
10/27/2010 1:35:47 PM PDT
by
RedMonqey
(What we obtain too cheap, we esteem too lightly)
To: Ernest_at_the_Beach
The winter is supposed to be less snowy, but about the same amount of cold in the Northeast. The Northeast, however, is a LARGE area, meteorologically speaking, so it could be snowing like crazy up in the White Mountains of NH, and still be not too unpleasant in Central MA.
15
posted on
10/27/2010 1:51:23 PM PDT
by
SuziQ
To: SuziQ
We have a very unique situation this winter. We were getting colder due to less solar activity, then the El Nino occurred last winter. That gave us a short term break from the cold that manifested itself in some areas of the US this summer. The increased water vapor last winter also helped to create the historic snow falls. But an El Nino gives you short term warming due to increases in water vapor and long term cooling due to decreasing the heat content within the deep Pacific Ocean. So the short term atmospheric heat from EL Nino is disappearing and being replaced by the underlying solar cooling trend. Add to this a strong La Nina and Moderately Strong PDO and we have a very unique situation. This first winter storm of the season might be an indicator for what is to come. Perhaps it was just the changing of the guard where Old Man Winter replaces Young Lady Summer.
To: Ernest_at_the_Beach; AdmSmith; Arthur Wildfire! March; Berosus; bigheadfred; ColdOne; ...
17
posted on
10/27/2010 6:41:47 PM PDT
by
SunkenCiv
(The 2nd Amendment follows right behind the 1st because some people are hard of hearing.)
To: justa-hairyape; Ernest_at_the_Beach
JAHA. I second your post to SuziQ. La Nina and the strong PDO taking place plus changes in earth's orbit relative to the sun and a number of other factors that are brought into play by the external sources are going to give us a twenty year plus cooling cycle. And it is going to get brutal at times some years. Hell. Europe, Scotland Eurasia are already seeing snows and plummeting temperatures. Believe they had quite a drop in Norway a few days back. We add in the ADO and changes to the gulf stream etc., and things are going to cool down mostly everywhere. This past winter in South America should be a wake up call to everyone as well as the second week in Australia's summer the past where they had a few inches of snow falling in the low mountain ranges not to far north of Melborne .
The list can go on, but just mentioning a few things that support your statement.
18
posted on
10/27/2010 7:42:32 PM PDT
by
Marine_Uncle
(Honor must be earned....)
To: Marine_Uncle
To: Ernest_at_the_Beach
So, where do we go from here? Expecting internal V&V from the climate modeling centers would require convincing resource managers that this is needed. Not easy, but in the U.S., the EPA could become a driver for this. Well, that's not going to happen. At Obama's EPA, "the debate is over." Any expense to Americans is justified to avoid the impending disaster that Al Gore and his fellow believers have predicted. No need to verify and validate. It's time to spend trillions of dollars that we don't have, and put us all back in the stone age.
20
posted on
10/27/2010 9:13:45 PM PDT
by
Rocky
(REPEAL IT!)
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