CoD surging on Intrade (Vanity)

intrade.com ^ | 11/02/2010 | ,

[library user]

A few hours ago Christine was trading @ $7 / share on intrade. Now she's up to $15 / share. Biggest jump (more than 100%) on any political race/outcome on intrade today, thus far.

[P-Marlowe]

Remember this — Christine was WAY BEHIND Mike Castle just the day before the primaries. She thumped him the next day.

I think most independents and reasonable democrats would be embarrassed to tell a pollster that they are voting for Christine O'Donnell. To admit that you voted for or supported Christina O'Donnell is the functional equivalent of committing social suicide in a place like Delaware. So they tell the pollsters they are voting for the bearded Marxist and then when they are secured in the booth, they pull the lever for O'Donnell.

I predicted that Delaware would be the Democrats' Waterloo. If a pro-life conservative can win in Delaware, they can win Any-ware.

[Theo]

A 30-minute ad, or 30 seconds? Regardless, it would be wonderful to see her elected to office.

[Persevero]

“But she’s a Witch. /s”

Yes, I know. All the conservative women running this year are either witches, whores, or adulteresses.

But let’s all remember, the conservatives are the misogynists, right?

When Hilary ran; when Pelosi, and Boxer run; when Geraldine Ferraro was a VP candidate way back when -

what was the Republican argument? Did we or do we accuse these women of witchcraft, harlotry, adultery?

The Left’s insults tell a lot about their real mindset.

[JPG]

You are incorrect about FL...only 3 will be seated right away, WV, DE, IL.

[smoothsailing]

Delaware state Election Commission rep. Elaine Manlove reports 11,650 absentee ballots submitted as of yesterday. This is more than the state normally receives for a midterm election, she said.

5,175 - 44% - from Democrats.

4,458 - 38% - from Republicans.

2,017 - 18% - from independents.

Can any number crunchers out there make anything out of this info?

[Clump]

Yea that is kind of strange. I don’t like it either.

[ScottinVA]

Delaware state Election Commission rep. Elaine Manlove reports 11,650 absentee ballots submitted as of yesterday. This is more than the state normally receives for a midterm election, she said. 5,175 - 44% - from Democrats. 4,458 - 38% - from Republicans. 2,017 - 18% - from independents.

This is actually pretty encouraging, if national trends of Indies switching to the GOP hold in DE.

[truthfreedom]

The optimistic scenario I had was 40D / 37R
for a +3 D. That was based on the generic +15.

Delaware is 47D/29R

So, this is -3 for the Dems, +9 for the Republicans, for a total of +12. I believe that the poll that had Christine down by 10 was very close to this. I think that was 43 / 37.

[Pete]

Rush asking right now, “Why are they [Dems] spending so much time in DE”?

[rarestia]

I stand corrected.

Wishful thinking, I suppose.

[2nd Amendment]

I think we will zot them good (40-60 seats) . . but sporkweasel proportions require a net gain of 70 seats or more!

[NavVet]

If you live in Deleware and you want to Send a package to Washington, send it COD, otherwise you’ll have to pay for it later.

[ScottinVA]

C’mon, Delaware... don’t put that bald-headed weasel in the Senate. Do the right thing and elect Christine O’Donnell.

[P-Marlowe]

When Hilary ran; when Pelosi, and Boxer run; when Geraldine Ferraro was a VP candidate way back when - what was the Republican argument? Did we or do we accuse these women of witchcraft, harlotry, adultery?

No we would NEVER do that!

[mpackard]

hahahahaha I love the old timers around here

[wardaddy]

I have donated to O’Donnel...twice now. I hope she wins and if she does it will defy the polls. However some of the examples here are not accurate:

Scott Brown led by double digits the day before election and had been ahead for nearly two weeks before.

http://www.myfoxboston.com/dpp/news/politics/local_politics/poll-scott-brown-surges-to-double-digit-lead-over-martha-coakley

Bush led Kerry by nearly 2 points in final poll tally from Real Clear Politics:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry.html

Lazio and Paladino were about even in final polls in their race...some had lazio up a point or so and some had Paladino up a bit. Paladino had surged from way behind over a week earlier.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/maggiehaberman/0910/Siena_poll_has_Lazio_Paladino_tied_.html

Christine O'Donnell was in fact slightly ahead of Castle right before the election and had surged late as well but the final polls

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2010/09/13/odonnell_surges_to_lead_over_castle_in_new_poll_107124.html

I sure hope Christine actually does beat the polls and they are way off this time, nothing would make me happier. I have studied polls over and over since Harry met Dewey and very few have been off by large measures and in recent history they have been reasonably reflective. This idea that polls are always way off is a myth. FReepers...myself included...lol...never believed polls that don't got their way but consider gospel those that do. And yep..like I said...I've done it too but 95% of the time the polls..especially if many have been done on a big race...will be close to the vote.

Hope tonight is an exception, it could be...given the swell.

[truthfreedom]

I wouldn’t say that. I think Christine is the better candidate. All that weird stuff that the left likes to talk about has nothing to do at all with what Christine would do as Senator. Christine said over and over about how Chris Coons would make your life worse if he was a Senator, and they just insulted her. Because they can’t believe that anyone could ever believe that the “wall of separation” isn’t in the constitution, or whatever else. Everyone on tv thinks that’s so funny. But normal people really don’t, and talking about it is not a good replacement for making a case why you’d be a better Senator, or why Christine would be worse.

[smoothsailing]

If I’m following you correctly, this translates to a final tally of 55% Coons 45% O’Donnell ?

[perfect_rovian_storm]

Really? Is there some Florida law that prevents the popularly elected senator from replacing the appointed senator?

Of course, those other three are the ones that really matter, since they are held by Dems and Rubio’s seat is held by a Republican.

[wagglebee]

I think most independents and reasonable democrats would be embarrassed to tell a pollster that they are voting for Christine O'Donnell. To admit that you voted for or supported Christina O'Donnell is the functional equivalent of committing social suicide in a place like Delaware. So they tell the pollsters they are voting for the bearded Marxist and then when they are secured in the booth, they pull the lever for O'Donnell.

Yep. People will never admit to voting for someone that they weren't "supposed" to vote for.

In 1972 there were news anchors who were surprised that Nixon won because everyone they knew was voting for McGovern. The reality was that Nixon got over 58% of the vote in New York state and even though McGovern won Manhatten it wasn't by much.

Last week's attempted smear of O'Donnell really backfired and there are probably a lot of upper-middle class suburban women who are going to vote accordingly. I'm also betting that there were a bunch of pseudo-intellectual liberals up there who went online last week and discovered that the phrase "separation of church and state" really isn't in the Constitution or Bill of Rights.