By the time it comes for me to vote out Di-Fi, I will be a Texas resident and it won’t matter.
Mind you, I will miss my California — home of Prop 13; blue skies; and her geography: beaches, mountains and desert all within an hour and a half.
But I can see when there are more people in the cart than pulling it. And, about one year from now (I am waiting to fully pay off my house) I ain’t gonna be under the lash of insanity.
Nice analysis, and from this distance, not too bad at all.
Let’s see what the cumulative effect of a couple of years of sunshine do to enhance your predictions. I’m betting a bunch of incumbent Democrats are going to have one hell of a time raising funds, and every one should have an opponent who is strongly backed by the Tea Party. I think a lot of those Democrats will choose a safe retirement as opposed to a hopeless reelection fight.
It’s a marathon, not a sprint folks...
Ben Nelson is roundly despised in Nebraska, and is down 15 points on the day he announced he will run again.
#10 - it’s long past time for the Wisconsin Dairy Queen to be retired, if for no other reason than he’s utterly stupid. Without Russ Feingold he’ll have a hard time finding the men’s room...oops, no that one he can figure out - but you get the idea.
I was hoping we would get 51 this year and then be in a good position to pick up enough for a filibuster proof majority in 2012. Picking up 13 in 2012 now looks like more of a stretch.
This will only hold true if newly-elected conservatives hold the line. If they go squishy to get along, all of them are toast.
How many time have we said that over the years?
With the Fed just giving everyone a 20% pay cut, one wishes that Nov. 2012 would be next week.
So many things can happen before the next election.
You are off on two of your predictions.
Casey is really in shabby shape in PA and a TON of union and Lib cash was spent to drag Sestak into a competitive race. ‘12 will even have less money available with Obummer running. If a decent candidate like Toomey is found, he is toast.
Webb is already distancing himself from the party. I really think he will jump ship and become a Repub. Especially if Manchin does. The writing is on the wall for Webbs loss, he will do what he can to stay Senator.
Great work , thanks.
2 years is a LONG WAY OFF to be predicting this. Just 2 years ago the death of the GOP was predicted. Some fools even wrote books and articles about it.
Before anybody puts forth Powell’s name as a candidate - black or otherwise - remember these facts:
1. He openly supported and voted for 0bambi;
2. He sat silent knowing that Scooter Libby was innocent;
3. He never once defended President Bush after the U speech; and
4. At best, just another RINO. At worst, an likely vote against Conservative principles. No thank you.
You might want to add your two cents...
Good, well reasoned analysis. Thanks.
If a strong GOP challenger emerges right away, some of those Dem incumbents in GOP leaning states may decide to hang up their hats rather than face a bruising election where the outcome may place them in the minority anyhow. I’m thinking Nelson-NE, Kohl, Conrad.
Some Dems incumbents in red states may actually face bruising primary battles from left wing candidates.
If Obama is at the top of the ticket, I don’t think he’ll have coattails this time around and having Obama on the ticket would energize conservatives to come out and vote against him.
A lot can happen in two years as we’ve witnessed from the past two years.
Retirements will scramble this picture a bit, as will an economic recovery that will be generating significant new jobs by the end of 2011. Obama on the ballot will also help most Democrats.
You’re correct that Virginia will be a pickup seat in 2012. Not so correct that Bill Bolling will go for it. He wants to be Governor. Look at it this way.
Bill Bolling will run for Governor in 2013 - he stepped aside in 2009 it’s “his turn”
Ken Cuccinelli will run for a second term as AG in 2013
Possiblities for the Senate
Delegate Bob Marshall (ran against Gilmore in the 2008 primary)
Prince William County Chairman Corey Stewart
Congressman Randy Forbes
There may be others in the mix. But I don’t see anyway it’s either Bolling or Cuccinelli. Not yet.