Skip to comments.It Will Take 131 Years To Replace Oil, And We've Only Got 10
Posted on 11/14/2010 4:20:08 PM PST by WebFocus
It seems the panic time for both green enthusiasts and peak oil pundits.
According to a new paper by two researchers at the University of California Davis, it would take 131 years for replacement of gasoline and diesel given the current pace of research and development; however, world's oil could run dry almost a century before that.
The research was published on Nov. 8 at Environmental Science & Technology, which is based on the theory that market expectations are good predictors reflected in prices of publicly traded securities.
By incorporating market expectations into the model, the authors, Nataliya Malyshkina and Deb Niemeier, indicated that based on their calculation, the peak of oil production could occur between 2010 and 2030, before renewable replacement technologies become viable at around 2140.
The estimates not only delayed the alternative energy timeline, but also pushed up the peak oil deadline. The researchers suggest some previous estimates that pegged year 2040 as the time frame when alternatives would start to replace oil, could be overly optimistic".
As I pointed out before, despite the excitement and hype surrounding a future of clean energy, a majority of the current technology simply does not make economic sense for regular consumers and lack the infrastructure for a mass deployment .even with government subsidies, tax breaks, and outright mandates.
In addition, the supply chain of renewable technologies is not as green as people might think. Most alternative technologies rely on rare earths for efficiency. However, the radioactive waste produced by rare earths mining process makes oil sands look like a green energy. This overlooked (or ignored) fact just now received some attention due to the sudden shortage caused by Chinas embargo and export quotas on rare earths.
(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...
If we actually ran out of oil, which we won't, everything would work out just fine.
What won't work out just fine is jackbooted thugs deciding what we deserve and seeing to it that we get it.
Well, I guess it’s time to get a dictator. All that crap about liberty and free markets don’t work. Just tell us what to do, oh great one! </sarc>
It’s OK. The sky is scheduled to fall on our heads a week beofre the oil and gas runs out. We’ll be good.
This article strikes me as intellectual masturbation is the extreme.
Pure exaggeration! I would bet that we have at least another 50 years or more! Better methods and better exploration will provide continuing expansion of the oil industry. It is the “world is coming to an end” folks that keep this kind of farce alive...
It’s time we start drilling. Working on oil shale and synthetic fuels like the Germans used in WW2.
We have tons of coal that can be turned into fuel.
Not to worry. World COULD end on 12/21/2012. Also we COULD be struck by a meteorite. Barack and Michelle COULD have another child, and he COULD release his Birth Certificate, proving he COULD be the Lost Dauphin. As COULD Elton John.
What unmitigated hosshiite.
Yeah, we're always going to run out of oil in the next 20 years. The "experts" have been telling us this since the 1950's.
DRILL, BABY , DRILL!!!!!
More crap from the wackos.
I have colleagues who work in the oil exploration business. This is 100% pure bovine excrement.
New Oil Patches Sprout Across Nation
The Wall Street Journal ^ | NOVEMBER 13, 2010 | DANIEL GILBERT
Don’t be Silly Dian L. Chu, global warming will freeze us all to death long before that! ;f
I recall very similar studies and articles 40 years ago.
Still waiting for the overpopulation predicted for the 80's in The Population Bomb. These idiots just keep moving the marker, when their predicts are proved wrong.
WE ARE ALL GOING TO DIE!