Posted on 11/23/2010 7:29:21 PM PST by sukhoi-30mki
Deliberate or Accidental, a New Korean War Would be Devastating
The soaring modern glass towers of downtown Seoul are magnificent -- and to a North Korean artillery officer squinting through his sights from just 32 miles away, a delicious set of targets. The glistening South Korean capital is a city of glass, almost literally in the shadow of some 500 long-range heavy artillery guns from which North Korea can fire half a million artillery shells an hour, for several hours.
A war on the Korean peninsula could explode almost without warning, senior U.S. military officers say. North Korea's immediate, if suicidal, intent in such a conflict: to demolish Seoul in a blizzard of glass shards and cause tens of thousands of casualties, before U.S. and South Korea forces could react.
That is why millions of people living in Seoul regularly practice scrambling into bomb shelters in subway stations -- and why any disruption in "normal'' relations with the reclusive and unpredictable regime to the north quickly gets the world's attention: a surprise attack from the North, whether deliberate or a miscalculation, would be bloody and costly, and likely would trigger all-out war.
Within hours of North Korea's apparently unprovoked artillery attack on South Korean territory and the South's retaliatory artillery barrage, U.S. officials, diplomats and policy analysts were assuring each other that this was only a "provocation'' by the North. The Obama administration took a rhetorical firm but low-key line on Tuesday, with Pentagon Press Secretary Geoff Morrell saying that the North Korean attack was "not, frankly, out of pattern for the North lately."
(Excerpt) Read more at politicsdaily.com ...
There is no easy way out of this mess without taking casualties and a lot of damage to civilian property in South Korea. It is unavoidable, and the best we can hope for is to minimize as many civilian casualties as possible.
But to solve this once and for all, the US is going to have to go back into North Korea and finish the job we started in the 50’s. If we flooded their airspace with cruise missiles and stealth bombers, they won’t be shooting at civilians for long, but there is no way to clean that rat’s nest out without taking some hits.
“The North has more artillery, ballistic missiles and special forces.”
On paper. All of those require maintenance. Sure, they can muster enough artillery to shell an island. Looks good, kills people. But large scale ops? No way they can logistically support those, although I’m sure they believe they can and are willing to try.
Spec ops? Sure they are some tough SOBs. Spec ops are essential to modern war, but not sufficient. When the ground pounders are spending time trying to find food, you can’t sustain military ops. Sure, it will be bloody for a while. That’s why “de-fang” is critical. But the Norks simply cannot engage long term without China stepping in. Hit hard and fast enough, then China can step in - and take over, which is sadly the best end game possible now.
“The South by itself doesn’t have the resources to take out all of those without risking significant economic and military damage.”
Agreed. There will be blood. The only question in my humble opinion is how much: Lots now, or a WHOLE lot more not that much later.
“Why do you think they have maintained their alliance with the US if they had parity of forces?”
Um, cause we’ve spent an estimated $1,000,000,000,000+ since the armistice providing defense for them, allowing them to build a functional society that (as thanks /spit) is taking jobs from us left and right? IOW, because we were stupid enough to give that to them for free? (See also Europe.)
The world would have been a far better place if governments didn’t use inaction as their primary form of action.
America's government, state department, and international politics and "strategies" in their own right have been INSANE.
You guys are all talking strategy. What about the homes and people who were bombed? Any news on them? I haven’t heard a thing - anyone hurt or killed? I couldn’t believe what I was seeing on Fox News - homes were actually blown up - and no one has said ANYTHING about the people. Unbelievable!
The tubes are hardened and hidden.
Much like a sniper shooting from the back of the room away from the window.
Radar will have a hard time finding them fast.
The sheer number of artillery pieces will level Soeul before the batterys are destroyed.
Every thing within 40 miles will be leveled in 24 hours.
No...but ostensibly the UN may as well have been up and running by 1944 considering the deal-making and preconceived re-alignment of European borders between FDR, Roosevelt, and Stalin.
My point - the last "war" the US fought to win was WWII.
“IMO we ought to pull out our military by 75% across the globe. We’ve been un-compensated and un-appreciated for our trouble.”
Absolutely agree 100%. Ironically, by electing zero, we’ve effectively done just that, if not more. Of course, because it’s unplanned, every nut in the world is going to try to take advantage. Blood and suffering are the inevitable results. Just hope it stays local blood and suffering, not WWIII type blood and suffering. Sadly, throughout history, when the dominant power precipitously falls, the blood and suffering is universal.
Again, what a world...
By your reaction, I guess the only "strategy" for South Korea left to consider is further appeasement and surrendering to NK's blackmail.
If they don't care, why should I?
“We do not have the will or the way. And if you read any military strategy, you know when you go to war with neither the will or the way, you lose.”
Excellent post.
And now, the REALLY hard question:
What does your statement above say about The West’s ability to resist the Islamic onslaught?
journalists sneak into North Korea via China. This is a must see video if you want to know what is going on North of the DMZ.
http://www.vbs.tv/watch/the-vice-guide-to-travel/vice-guide-to-north-korea-1-of-3
“The world would have been a far better place if governments didn?t use inaction as their primary form of action.”
VERY well said, IMHO!
0bama has obviously signaled the world that they can f%$#! with us with impunity. He's rung the dinner bell for ALL the world's lunatics and dictators.
Yes, in doing so, the Kenyan has endangered ALL of us. Of that he's quite proud I'm sure.
“I see it as we go to war with North Korea, we are going to war with China.”
Nope. Time to start thinking outside the box.
China’s “price” for abstaining from a new Korean war (with the expected outcome that South Korea will defeat the North and re-unite the peninsula) will be.... Taiwan. Re-unification.
The ultimate quid-pro-quo.
As I’ve seen happen a lot, the original article conflated the artillery pieces in range of Seoul, with the total rate all NK artillery could fire over the ENTIRE DMZ.
Only a fraction of NK artillery has enough range to reach Seoul and is close enough to do so.
Cities and their citizens are a lot tougher than people imagine, as was found out in WWII.
IOW, "That crazy little brother of mine! I never know WTH he's doing down the basement!"
That IS good. Very good.
Been following this off and on here all day. Two S Korea marines killed. Unknown number (dozen or so? accounts vary) injured, some severely. Scores of homes and buildings - and livelihoods - ruined.
My starting point in this thread: Unless the South wants to get used to this as a way of life, they must act effectively.
Agree, though: Many people who think “they can’t respond militarily” apparently think these people’s lives just don’t matter. It’s all about avoiding conflict, after all. Of course, any student of history knows that acting in that matter GUARANTEES more conflict! After all, that’s pretty much all that has happened, expect the Norks are about to have (more) nukes!
Actually it is not a war at all. Congress has been shirking its duty to debate the issue seriously and declare war since WWII. It is so easy for politicians to send other people’s children to die.
“matter” should be “manner” PIMF
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