Posted on 11/23/2010 7:29:21 PM PST by sukhoi-30mki
Whatever you said about need for rogue states would be true for a representative democracy, but not for the PRC. North Korea, Pakistan and Iran have kept potential Chinese rivals bleeding for decades and will continue to do so. The last thing China wants is for them to be taken out of the scene. ‘Peace and Stability’ are relative terms. If stability means a weakened India or Japan, that is why China continues to support Pakistan and North Korea.
You are right-China doesn’t want to destroy trade with South Korea. Which is why the North fires off a few rounds and then steps back. Do you seriously think anyone-including the US, China and South Korea want reunification?? Even a completely peaceful reunification will hit the South Korean economy hard given North Korea’s current shape. Would any sane country want to add 23+ million dirt poor people to their population. So who will foot the bill??? Reunification in the current term is a fantasy.
About the military factor. Again as you pointed out, North Korea’s conventional forces are obsolete. The only problem is that they know it better than anyone else. If they tried to invest in rearming themselves conventional, they would have spent themselves into oblivion. Which is why they have invested in asymmetric capabilites. Artillery, heavy anti-aircraft capability, special forces (the world’s largest number), cyber warfare, NBC weapons. So again, do you think the South Koreans would want to risk even a limited war which could potentially undermine years of economic development. As I’ve said before, the only way South Korea can come out with relatively little damage is if the US nukes North Korea, which probably wont happen. Or if there is a coup in Pyongyang.
There is a difference...those N Korean sleeper cells are motivated by their countries ambtions and corrupt leadership. If that is liquidated, so is the motivation, or most of it.
Hong Kong shows that China knows how to play for time. Hong Kong is probably a little more democratic than Iran or maybe Venezuela. That’s about it.
http://gohongkong.about.com/od/historyandcultureofhk/f/hongkongdemoc.htm
At the risk of sounding like an Isolationist... that is the difference between the US in 1940 and post-1945... we went from being a Constitutional-Republic to an imperial power (a commercial-imperial power). Empires must fight small brushfire wars as the price of maintaining their position.
Look it how many wars Britain fought around the Globe between 1776 and 1914. Many times their troops got their clocks cleaned in Round One, before they got their act together for Payback. Sounds familiar, right?
If Congress debated every Banana-War the Public would quickly learn the scam. Mostly the everyday voter likes the lifestyle that comes from being top-dog. Those days are coming to an end, so we need to decide if we are returning to the Constitutional-Repblic or something else...
At this time we have neither the will nor the way for that. We are focused not on eliminating the threat, but on trying to impose our way of life on other cultures.
Part of the problem is that the US is isolated from a lot of other cultures in the world, and we expect them to react like us. They won’t.
The way to deal with the culture of Islamic fundamentalism is to be forceful and strong.
We assume they give a hoot about dying—because we do. They don’t. They have a much different concept of “winning.” They win if they live until tomorrow. They win by outlasting and survival.
Again, the “then what” exercise does not end well. If I were an investing guy, all of the “then what” equations end up with Russia running the world’s oil.
That cannot be good for us. Those folks can carry a grudge.
bttt
If South Korea could stomp over the North, they would’nt have called for UNSC sessions after their warship was sunk and after repeated provocations over the past 15 years.
A country which has an arsenal of ballistic missiles, NBC weapons, cyber warfare and supposed EMP capabilities is not 1950 style. If Saddam thought them something, it is that there is no point in trying to match the US or its allies in conventional capabilities. Sure the South and US will win any war eventually, but are they willing to pay the price??? They have shown little inclination towards that.
I’ve come to realize that the South is incapable of mounting an actual harsh retaliation, mostly due to their aversion to killing their own distant kin who are now brainwashed and waving little red books, but kin nonetheless. This is also why when we’re on the cusp of being able to starve the Norks into submission, the ROK howls and relents or even ships food “under the table” to the Norks.
That’s not entirely true. The South has responded decisively to naval violations in the past and would probably lash out if it is pushed. Mushy sentiments aside, South Korea fears the impact of conflict on its economy. It’s the same reason nobody wants to do anything about Iran or Pakistan.
Response to naval engagements is one thing. They’re responding to point targets, who are entirely military.
If we’re talking counter-battery fire, there will certainly be civilian deaths and destruction. That’s where the ROK would hesitate.
The Norks, if they started a real “shock and awe” bombardment of Seoul would need a serious curb-stomp and that’s going to mean serious civilian deaths north of the DMZ. The ROK obviously fears the effects on their economy - that’s absolutely true. But when they could have starved the Norks to the table, they refused to do so. When they could have let the Norks freeze to death (or make it China’s problem), the ROK flinched.
Moral of the story: When your enemy is starving and freezing to death, you should *let* them starve and freeze.
The South realizes that in an all out war they have far more to lose then the retarded Norks. They can win, it will just set them back a decade or so. Winning would be it’s own punishment, as they would have an East German problem on steroids. Doesn’t mean they can’t win which was my point.
There is no way the North sweeps down and conquers the South. Ain’t happening.
Which is precisely why all the North Koreans keep doing is lob a few shells. The ‘North Korean’ invasion theory exists only in internet forums-the regime knows that would be suicide.
Yeah, it’s “give me a dollar or I might break a few windows”...
On the other hand it wouldn’t be the first time a war was started based on a miscalculation....
Yes, absolutely. Empires also rot from within by allowing the “riff-raff” in the countries they occupy to come into the home country. This also sounds familiar.
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