Posted on 11/23/2010 7:29:21 PM PST by sukhoi-30mki
Deliberate or Accidental, a New Korean War Would be Devastating
The soaring modern glass towers of downtown Seoul are magnificent -- and to a North Korean artillery officer squinting through his sights from just 32 miles away, a delicious set of targets. The glistening South Korean capital is a city of glass, almost literally in the shadow of some 500 long-range heavy artillery guns from which North Korea can fire half a million artillery shells an hour, for several hours.
A war on the Korean peninsula could explode almost without warning, senior U.S. military officers say. North Korea's immediate, if suicidal, intent in such a conflict: to demolish Seoul in a blizzard of glass shards and cause tens of thousands of casualties, before U.S. and South Korea forces could react.
That is why millions of people living in Seoul regularly practice scrambling into bomb shelters in subway stations -- and why any disruption in "normal'' relations with the reclusive and unpredictable regime to the north quickly gets the world's attention: a surprise attack from the North, whether deliberate or a miscalculation, would be bloody and costly, and likely would trigger all-out war.
Within hours of North Korea's apparently unprovoked artillery attack on South Korean territory and the South's retaliatory artillery barrage, U.S. officials, diplomats and policy analysts were assuring each other that this was only a "provocation'' by the North. The Obama administration took a rhetorical firm but low-key line on Tuesday, with Pentagon Press Secretary Geoff Morrell saying that the North Korean attack was "not, frankly, out of pattern for the North lately."
(Excerpt) Read more at politicsdaily.com ...
I get the impression Obama has little interest in foreign relations. An international "crisis" is no more than a distraction to him. He'd rather be playing golf...
If he ever comes to the conclusion that he would politically profit from starting a war, he may well do it. But he doesn't know how to act like a war-time president...and he knows it.
And..., how could you blame "them"...?
These are 130 mm guns and the like. Six minutes at six rounds per minute and then two rounds per minute sustained rate of fire. Otherwise you will kill the crews and burn out the gun tubes. There is also the matter of ammunition supply. In order to keep up the sustained rate of fire for a long time you must have quite a pile of ammo stored very nearby. Sure hope counterbattery doesn’t hit any of the 1000 rounds of 130 or 152mm that you are ensconced in. BOOM!!
Well, that's BS on it's face.
Show me a gun that can fire 1000 rounds per hour, for several hours.
They don't make 'em. Never have.
The tubes would melt at 100/hr if one kept shooting.
The ROK’s are also commiting demographic suicide - a lower birth rate than Italy’s. We can’t help those who don’t believe in themselves, and the Republic of Korea is way up on that list.
According to "Mao: The Unknown Story" the Soviet absence from the Security Council when the vote was taken was intentional and Chicom intervention in Korea was a given from the start. Stalin wanted a meat grinder war in Korea that would hopefully draw in reinforcements from the Western forces in Europe and weaken them to the point that the Red Army could come in. Unfortunately for him the U.S. didn't cooperate and kept the war fairly limited.
" A West Point armor officer who was born while his father was fighting in Korea, Sharp is charged with executing Op Plan 5027, the war-fighting blueprint that focuses immediately on destroying North Korean artillery. Those targets are already stored in U.S. and Republic of Korea (ROK) computers for instant destruction by artillery, missiles or air strikes. Radar which back-traces the trajectory of enemy artillery shells would precisely locate mobile artillery.
It does go on too. Just click the link.
Well, cut off the snakes head and all of it’s minions will be leaderless and not so motivated as they will see their empire in shambles.
thanks for the snarky reply. it actually amplifies my point: that the NK arty will not fire on for hours and hours but will be “immediately destroyed.”
Sorry for being irritable but I tire of people who post replies to articles without reading them. It makes for long drawn out simple responses that clutter this board. I’m not singling you out I’m just to the point to where I don’t even want to read the replies as most just reply to the snippet posted.
A few background links on our relationship with South Korea for those interested:
Shock Poll - South Koreans Prefer North Korea To The United States (Feb 2006)
http://blogcritics.org/politics/article/shock-poll-south-koreans-prefer-north/
Survey: Americans question role in Korean peninsula
http://www.cnn.com/2010/US/11/23/americans.south.korea/
One of America’s Strongest Allies, and Why it Gets Overlooked
http://www.buzzle.com/articles/one-of-americas-strongest-allies-and-why-it-gets-overlooked.html
South Korean Anti-Americanism (2003)
http://www.jpri.org/publications/workingpapers/wp93.html
Also assuming of course that none are taken out by missles within minutes. Its doubtful that the locations of those guns are unknown after all.
It's my understanding that much of the Nork artillery is emplaced in caves carved into rock, with steel doors that only open when ready to actually fire. "MOAB" would be absolutely useless. I certainly hope the SK counter-battery artillery has precision-guidance capabilities.
The buildings can be rebuilt. Hopefully, the people will be safe in the bomb shelters.
As for the North Korean artillery, I would think that few cannons will get off more than 5 rounds due to counter-battery fire. It is relatively easy for a modern army to identify the position of the cannon from the trajectory of the round. The question is how fast is the response time. With drones in the sky, response could be very fast. But, even with conventional artillery, response would quickly suppress if not destroy the enemy’s artillery.
Attacking South Korea’s civilian population would probably make all-out war inevitable, and North Korea would certainly be crippled if not outright conquered by South Korea in an all-out war.
The north’s military is equipped with a mix of late 1950s / 1960s weapon systems. We’re talking T-62 and T-54 tanks, and MiG 21 fighters. In contrast, the South Korean weapon systems are modern. Their K1 tank is a somewhat down-sized knock-off of our M-1. With regard to air assets, they not only have a qualitative advantage, they also have considerably more. The prospect would be of qualitatively superior ground forces operating with air superiority.
The first echelon of the North Korean army - about a million strong - is dug in just north of the DMZ. They would be hard to displace. But, any attempt on their part to maneuver would be fatal. They could be by-passed and the loyalty of the starving masses in the area to the north could be tested.
The masses have been heavily indoctrinated from birth, and are supposedly organized into a reserve force of 7 million. But, the regime cannot be confident of the choice they would make if they were given a choice.
The real fear of the U.S. is that South Korea, which is entirely capable of defending itself, makes a decision that we wouldn’t want them to make. Hence, the President, in saying that we will defend South Korea, was really saying he doesn’t want South Korea to defend itself.
With regard to China,.South Korea is China’s #1 trading partner. China has a lot more to gain, economically, from a reunified Korea; then a whack North Korea offers. As China emerges as an economic powerhouse, with extensive global trade and investments, its interests in peace and stability in the world increase; and, its need for rogue client states diminishes. North Korea cannot be confident that China will support it.
China reunification for Korea reunification. Gadzooks, man, I think you’re right. Hong Kong shows that China can have a democratic, free and prosperous entity. Could we have “One China, Three Systems”? I wouldn’t mind offering every resident of Taiwan a U.S. green card, so that those who really feared the Mainland would have an escape hatch. They wouldn’t have to come here right away. Just have that option if they felt they needed to. Also, I think China could understand that our agreement to China reunification means that we will work on a path for that to come about within a reasonable time period.
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