Posted on 02/23/2011 3:29:18 PM PST by SeekAndFind
That’s not quite what Gallup explicitly says in its analysis, but it’s a rather inevitable conclusion when one sees the graphic presentation of the results. Barack Obama lost eleven points in his approval ratings on a state-by-state basis in 2010, and now the floor has Obama in danger of losing the next election. Bear in mind when looking at the legend that the “average” approval rating for Obama was 47% — and that Obama had a 50% or better rating only in the dark-green states:
Obama’s overall average approval rating in 2010 was 47%, down 11 percentage points from the 58% he recorded in his first calendar year in office. For purposes of this state-by-state analysis, Obama’s average is calculated for the calendar year, and is therefore slightly different than the yearly average calculated beginning with his inauguration on January 20, 2009.
Broadly speaking, residents of 20 states gave Obama an approval rating within three percentage points of his national average (between 43.8% and 49.8%). Twelve states plus the District of Columbia had average approval ratings above that range, and in 18 states, approval fell below it.
The graphic is striking. Obama only gets majority approval for his performance on the West Coast and the Northeast — and not even all of those areas. He holds his home state of Illinois and his birth state of Hawaii, both unsurprisingly, but between the coasts there exists a vast land of either indifference or outright disapproval. Traditional Democratic states like Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania are wavering. The entire interior West has become outright hostile. More than half of the states have shown a double-digit decline in approval for Obama.
Presidents can win re-election with overall approval ratings below 50%, but that usually requires either a credible third-party challenge or an extraordinarily poor challenger. The economy would have to significantly improve to move these numbers in the direction where Obama can feel safe, and that seems unlikely to happen while Obama continues to press for regulatory adventurism.
Obama has a year at best to turn this around. He won the 2008 election at the peak of Bush fatigue by seven points nationwide. Continuing erosion in his standing puts the White House within the grasp of the GOP, especially if they nominate a credible candidate who can attract a “big tent” of those discontented with Obama.
May he suffer a defeat of Mondale proportions.
“If she wins FL, MI, MN, OH, WI, IN and PA then it is over.”
Palin winning PA?
And MN? And MI?
Does she poll well in those states? I thought she wasn’t well-liked in those.
LLS
The unemployment will sink him; he will not be the Dem candidate in 2012.
Best damn lobstah is further up the coast - in ‘native Mainiac’ territory.
the best lobstah place ain't fancy - it's a four generation lobstah pound out over the bay - overlooking the islands.
Thousands of the red bugs just off the boats to pick from, boiled in old brick ‘ovens’ and eaten out over the water...where the Passagassawaukeag meets the Penobscot.
You come as is or bring the fixin’s: tablecloth, spirits, salads, fruit, cheese ‘n crackers, deserts - then add the lobstah, steamers ‘n mussels - and corn on the cob.
Don't get no bettah.
2012 bump for later........
Even Jimmy Carter got his party's nomination. You can't beat somebody with nobody and it doesn't look like there's any Democrat who will challenge him.
If Hillary does, it may change things, but politicians like the patronage: so long as Obama has jobs for them and money to pass around they aren't going to turn on him.
It would be interesting if Russ Feingold challenges Obama from the left, but I don't see him losing the nomination. Democrats invested too much in him to back away easily.
-——The unemployment will sink him-——
The coming war will likely, but not guaranteed, save him
“Clinton’s personal scandals hadn’t surfaced in 96, the economy was rolling pretty good, and Clinton STILL didn’t win a majority of the popular vote. It was his SECOND plurality win aided by HRP.”
IIRC Clinton never won more than 43% of the popular vote. I am not sure about ‘96 but if Perot hadn’t been around in ‘92 he most likely would not have won.
LLS
Anyone watching the globe set afire recently...and wondering how quick that happened?
How the hell could this Country killing unknown foreigner ever get on another ballot let alone win anything in the states. He belongs back with his tribe.
The donors won’t back a loser; they’ll support a (very) white, probably Southern, Christian (at least in name) candidate with no track record. There will be a face-saving exit for Obama, who certainly doesn’t want to be the first Mulatto to lose a presidential election.
There won’t be a war; we can’t deal with the 2 we’re in now (and the world knows it).
That's what I suspected, but can they find one who won't hurt Obama more than the Republican?
There are a lot of anti-Palin independents out there who might vote for a Bloomberg-type candidate, but a lot of them would vote for Obama if it were a two-candidate race, so having the third candidate in there only hurts Obama.
If a third party candidate were to hurt the Republicans and help Obama it would have to be something conservatives inflict on themselves.
Of course that doesn't exclude the possibility of some nutty billionaire gumming up the works with a self-financed campaign, but will people fall for it this time?
I think NJ lost an electoral vote as well, though I seriously doubt NJ has a “favorable” rating for the Kenyan Pirate. While we have urban toilets, they don’t have enough people to offset the tax revolt that put Chris Christie in office and is suspicious of Muslims after 9/11 (since probably 90% of the non-urban population here now believes he IS a Muslim).
LLS
In this story on telling the NAACP to “kiss my butt” = is not entirely accurate. He said “kiss my ass.”
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/postpartisan/2011/01/paul_lepages_offensive_rsvp_to.html
He says ‘no welfare to illegals
He's cutting the EPA off at the knees
He's opening up a lot of locked up land.
etc.
He came up the hard way - on the street at age 11 - got college, rose to manager of one of our biggest discount chains, elected mayor in a deep red city (Waterville) - and got RE-elected.
He doesn't mince words and doesn't suffer fools gladly.
the Tea Party got this one right.
Here's his bio - I think you'll like it!
In other words, the actual results of bammy's communist Presidency.
But the eeevile conservative “haters” were ALL racist when this EXACT scenario was put forth at the time of The Øne's Coronation.
Now that is reality, the eeevile conservative haters will be at fault because they MADE the $5/gallon gas and 8 - 10% inflation come true due to some nebulous indefinable form of "greed." (eyes rolling)
It's like babysitting four year olds. Non-stop loud crying, name calling and finger pointing.
.
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