Posted on 03/02/2011 4:15:00 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
Who will take on Barack Obama for the 2012 Presidential election? Betfair punters expect Mitt Romney to get the Republican nomination while some have even speculated that Donald Trump could have a crack at the White House. The Betfair Contrarian explains why everybody's favourite Alaskan is his choice...
The Contrarian has proven in the past that he's even more adept at making money out of politics than an expense-fiddling MP, his latest triumph coming when opposing David Miliband at 1.43 in last year's Labour leadership battle. He's spotted another big opportunity - backing Sarah Palin to be the Republican candidate for the 2012 election at the huge price of 10.0. Wondering why you should put your money on someone with as many critics as fans? Let the Contrarian explain...
"The Republican Party leadership vacuum"
This was a term coined by Washington Post journalist Dana Milbank in reaction to billionaire Donald Trump 46.0 tearing down the house at last month's Conservative Political Action Conference when he delivered a speech hinting at an unlikely push for the presidency. Milbank concluded that the positive reaction to a figure as politically uninvolved as Trump, whose views far from mirror those of the Republican party, demonstrates the lack of credible leaders. Such a situation lends itself to opting for a candidate that, while potentially divisive, has the strength of character and conviction in their beliefs to win voters round, boxes that even Palin's enemies would concede that she emphatically ticks.
There are lessons in the Democrats' 2008 success
Barack Obama's landslide victory illustrated that a relatively inexperienced, charismatic politician with a touch of celebrity status is sometimes more likely to capture the imagination of the public than uninspiring establishment veterans. The Republicans' 2008 choice John McCain was dubbed "McSame" and dismissed as a George W Bush clone, while the current 2012 favourite Mitt Romney 4.5 has fallen victim to nicknames like Mittbot in reference to his perceived robotic delivery.
Palin is the antithesis of Obama
Obama's landslide surge to the White House and subsequent rather flat performance has left the electorate underwhelmed, and opened the door for the Republicans' unprecedented mid-term gains, for which Palin earned much credit. Their 2012 campaign will focus on Obama's shortcomings and promote an alternative, and there's nobody better suited to that role than Palin, who has been on his case at every setback of his tenure. She also has the invaluable experience of having been a key player in the team that opposed him last time. That defeat will have been hugely educational, much as Richard Nixon benefitted from the lessons of his 1960 loss to JFK to see off George McGovern by record-breaking margins in 1972.
Allegations of widespread unpopularity are unproven
Palin constantly complains about biased reporting from what she labels the "lamestream media" and her supporters are adamant that the press portrayal of her as widely disliked is inaccurate. There could well be substance to that theory, with a national poll at the time of the last election showing that just 19.6 per cent of citizens trust most news media reporting. Evidence of this is her daughter Bristol's showing in the 2010 series of Dancing With the Stars, in which she exceeded expectations to finish third, surviving on five separate occasions despite registering the lowest score, progress that was credited to many Americans warming to Palin senior and therefore voting for the daughter.
Running mates often go on to be presidential candidates
If reality TV voting patterns aren't enough to convince you, there are a fair few examples of running mates, as Palin was for McCain in 2008, going on to stand for the presidency further down the line. Some, like Lyndon Johnson and George Bush I, succeeded victorious candidates, but it is not unheard of for running mates in unsuccessful campaigns to later earn a chance to stand for the big job, with Bob Dole a recent Republican example, battling with Bill Clinton in 1996 having previously been part of a failed Gerald Ford bid.
Palin / West ‘12
No one else will even come close for the Republican nomination.
I assume BetFair is a bookie in the UK? They are almost always the best at handicapping political races. It usually isn’t even close because when bookies get it wrong, they pay out money. They are VERY good at what they do.
sigh
I voted for her the last time and if my dad dosent run I will vote for her again
it’s premature.
When she arived on the scene, palin was a breath of fresh air, although McAmnesty was and is quite properly a deal breaker.
Now there are names popping into the scene with even better pedegrees.
Given a choice between Palin or Brewer for example, I am going Brewer all the way.
I don’t believe that Gov. Jan Brewer is considering running for president. As for the others with “better pedigrees” I hope you’re not referring to individuals like Gov. Chris Christie.
FDR is another example of the same thing and he won FOUR terms as president.
Comparing Bob Dole to Sarah Palin doesn't work. As a lifetime GOP insider, Dole got the nomination because it was his turn. Even though Sarah Palin was the vice presidential nominee, she remains a party outsider.
The fact that she has kept that outsider status appeals to many of us. We are sick and tired of putting our trust in people whose goal, once elected, is to serve themselves at the expense of our country, our dollars and our vanishing freedoms.
I don't know if FDR's a good example to hold up considering today's issues, society, and all that's come since then.
We have a pretty weak line-up for 2012, and it's the perfect opportunity for someone.
What I’m saying is that he was an unsuccessful vice presidential candidate when the 1920 Democratic National Convention chose Roosevelt as the candidate for Vice President of the United States on the ticket headed by Governor James M. Cox of Ohio, but he went on to win four presidential races.
Bookies, never pay out money, they work both sides of the bet, just like hedge funds, they only want the 20% drag.
Gotcha.
Thanks 2ndDivisionVet. Obama will be difficult to beat in 2012. He has his locked-in constituency of racists, and the racist kids who backed him before they could vote will have spent up to four years in school having his talking points and his personality cult pushed by members of the NEA. Meanwhile, older voters who might have voted against him (including those who voted for him the first time out) may not even be alive in 2012. Demwits have been rigging elections for a long, long time. And their partisan shills in the media aren’t going anywhere.
Furthermore, he’s strengthening his candidacy by bashing Jews and pushing for the world caliphate — he’s a wartime president, and that alone weakens any of his rivals.
for l8r view
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.