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Poll: Trump’s entry into the race would hurt Palin the most
Hotair ^ | March 23,2011 | Allahpundit

Posted on 03/23/2011 8:01:22 PM PDT by Hojczyk

It’s weird to think of him pulling votes from anyone, but … Palin? The candidate with the single most devoted base in the entire field?

Draw me a Venn diagram of their respective constituencies, please.

Ten percent of Republicans and independents who lean Republican say they would most likely support Trump for the GOP’s 2012 presidential nomination.

That would place him fifth on the list behind former Arkansas Gov. and 2008 Republican presidential candidate Mike Huckabee at 19 percent, former Massachusetts Gov. and 2008 White House hopeful Mitt Romney at 18 percent, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich at 14 percent, and 2008 GOP vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin at 12 percent…

“Removing Trump’s name from the list and allocating his voters to their second choice gives Huckabee 21 percent and Romney 19 percent – essentially unchanged from January. In a Trump-less field, Gingrich gets 15 percent, up from 10 percent in January, and Paul goes from 7 percent to 11 percent. Palin is the big loser, dropping from 19 percent in a no-Trump round in January to just 13 percent now,” adds Holland.

That’s the fun part of the poll. The less fun part is that Democratic enthusiasm has jumped to 56 percent, trimming a 22-point Republican advantage to … just six. I’m trying hard not to attribute that to a backlash on the left against Wisconsin, but it’s the most compelling explanation I can think of.

As for the Trump/Palin overlap, maybe there’s a portion of disengaged Republican voters who tilt towards the candidate with the highest name recognition. Normally that’s Sarah, but That Guy From “The Apprentice” out-celebrities even her. Similarly, could be that some righties are looking to liven up the debates for fear of a Romney/Pawlenty/Gingrich/Daniels soporific nightmare. Palin and Trump would both achieve that. Or maybe some of Palin’s support right now is as a protest vote by people disaffected with the establishment GOP. I’m skeptical of that, though, since protest votes don’t normally go to candidates like her who can actually win.

If the Trump vote is coming from people who are simply looking to spoil a ballot as a kiss-off to the top contenders in the field, I would think he’d be pulling more from someone like Ron Paul (who actually finished two points behind Trump) than from her.

All theories welcome. Via JWF, here he is


TOPICS: Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: birthertrump
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To: BuckeyeTexan
Surprisingly, unlike a lot of posters here, many people, especially in the N.Y. tri-state area and Florida know all about "THE DONALD" and aren't buying his ego driven blowheart, toe dipping act.

If my instincts have failed me and he actually does get into the primaries, everything about him WILL be tossed out into the open and he will fail and fail badly!

And the LAST thing our side needs, this time around, is a bloviating clown on our team.

121 posted on 03/23/2011 10:12:27 PM PDT by nopardons
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To: Springfield Reformer; HiTech RedNeck

Take this for what it is worth.

http://politicallyillustrated.com/index.php?/news_page/features/2352/


122 posted on 03/23/2011 10:15:42 PM PDT by Lazlo in PA (Now living in a newly minted Red State.)
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To: nopardons
Actually, for the primaries I have already researched Palin and have supported her but now I'm starting to look elsewhere because of her support for getting involved in Libya when Iran is indirectly hammering Israel using Hamas.

I think we need a President who has their list of enemies prioritized. I am not looking at Donald Trump as a candidate I would vote for. It all depends on who else is out there and what they all stand for. It's very unlikely I would vote for Trump in the Primaries.

My prior comments were directed at the ones who vowed to stay home and let Obama win if their particular candidate did not win the primaries. If the choice were Obama or Trump, I sure am not voting for Obama so Trump or even Nixon would get my vote Obama.

123 posted on 03/23/2011 10:17:30 PM PDT by tsowellfan (http://www.cafenetamerica.com)
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To: RockinRight
Palin’s unelectable.

Heh... Don't break your neck doing a double-take when she wins the White House next year.

124 posted on 03/23/2011 10:18:53 PM PDT by Windflier (To anger a conservative, tell him a lie. To anger a liberal, tell him the truth.)
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To: Lazlo in PA

Evolving position maybe? I think Trump rightly fears a US demographic suicide, and for abortion to be viewed as acceptable feeds into that suicide mentality.


125 posted on 03/23/2011 10:21:56 PM PDT by HiTech RedNeck (Hawk)
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To: Lazlo in PA
I share your feelings on Obama. Yet, while I also will not vote for Romney, there are others I also will not vote for.

I keep looking at all the people hurting in this economy due to this current administrations continued policies, and I can't help but also blame the Republican establishment for promoting such a weak candidate like McCain.

If they're successful once again in promoting another establishment Faux Conservative, not only will I vote Third Party, but I will give up time to work for a Third Party.

The Tea Party is either going to end up with a major voice in the Republican Party or will become a Major Party by itself.

126 posted on 03/23/2011 10:28:12 PM PDT by Rational Thought
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To: nopardons
"He also had NO idea how to be president, or get anything done"

That's BS. He managed to get his employees out of Iran, which an American dimmacrat president couldn't do even with all the might of the US military. He is a true American patriot. In 1969, while John McCain was a POW, Ross Perot paid for McCain's first wife's medical treatment after a devastating auto accident:

While visiting her family in Philadelphia on Christmas Eve 1969,[15] Carol McCain was driving alone in snowy, icy conditions. Approaching an intersection on an isolated country road, she skidded and collided with a telephone pole, was thrown from the car into the snow, and went into shock. Some time later she was found and taken to Bryn Mawr Hospital;[10] she had two smashed legs, a broken pelvis, broken arm, and ruptured spleen. She spent six months in the hospital, and over the course of the next two years had 23 operations,[10] which rebuilt her legs with rods and pins,[11] as well as extensive physical therapy.[17] She did not tell her husband about the accident in her letters to him, believing he already had enough to worry about,[10] and the U.S. State Department told a surgeon who operated upon her not to mention anything to the press, lest it worsen the treatment for John McCain.[18] Businessman and POW advocate Ross Perot paid for her medical care[19] and she remained grateful to him, later saying: "The military families are in Ross's heart and in his soul ... There are millions of us who are extremely grateful to Ross Perot."

After that accident, McCain divorced her for his new heart-throb, Cindy.

127 posted on 03/23/2011 10:32:25 PM PDT by matthew fuller ( A feast is made for laughter, and wine maketh glad the life; and money answereth all things.)
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To: tsowellfan
Up until right now, I was a "hold your nose, if needs be" kinda person, but no longer.

WHY ?

Because there isn't anyone, not ANYONE, who is a maybe/perhaps/yes indeed I' running person in the GOP pack, except for Palin, who 1) can beat Obama 2)wouldn't be just as bad a president as Obama.

Trump is like Michael Bloomberg....a Dem, no a GOPer, no..anything I might think of in the next ten minutes, as long as I thought that I could buy an elected office. He's also a flip flopper and a blowhard.

Tonight, Sarah was on fire, was extremely pro-Israel, said that if she were president, she wouldn't ask Israel to make any more concessions, but would tell the Pallis that they would have to make a bunch of concessions to have peace and their own sort of country. She blasted Hammas and Hezbollah.

Trump gave $50,000 to Rahm Emmanuel for his mayoral campaign. He has also donated to Chris Dodd, Charlie Rangle, Chuckles Schumer, HILLARY CLINTOM, Harry Reid, John Kerry, Anthony Weiner, Bill Nelson, and on and on. FYI.....those contributions were made when he was a registered GOPer and Dem ( he switched registration in '09, but I don't know the date ). Of course, he also made a few donations to the likes of Arlen Specter, the DNC, and McCain,as a registered DEM.

You're looking at him, because you don't like/agree with ONE THING Palin said, that I doubt you really understand the meaning of, without knowing anything at all about Trump.

128 posted on 03/23/2011 10:38:25 PM PDT by nopardons
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To: Hojczyk
Donald Trump: Chinese 'Looking to Strip Us of Everything'
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2666755/posts

Palin Speaks to Investors in Hong Kong
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/2346270/posts

The Chinese Connection via the CLSA: Sarah Palin Enters the Lion’s Den
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/bloggers/2345119/posts


129 posted on 03/23/2011 10:43:31 PM PDT by familyop ("Dry land is not just our destination, it is our destiny!" --"Deacon," "Waterworld")
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To: Springfield Reformer
"Then you don’t mind that Trump favors the killing of unborn children? "

I WOULD mind that; however, I don't know where he stands on abortion (yet). I am sure that that will become obvious, as his campaign continues, and it might become a deal-breaker.

130 posted on 03/23/2011 10:44:27 PM PDT by matthew fuller ( A feast is made for laughter, and wine maketh glad the life; and money answereth all things.)
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To: GoCards

Trump loves capitalism. Period. He’s perfect to call out the Won. He’s earned the BIG $ from capitalism. He ain’t gonna stand by idle and watch our quasi-capitalistic society swirl down the drain. He’s the wrench in the plan that will create the crack in the WON’S veneer. Donald loves the battle strategy.


131 posted on 03/23/2011 10:44:33 PM PDT by sjneuf
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To: GoCards

Trump loves capitalism. Period. He’s perfect to call out the Won. He’s earned the BIG $ from capitalism. He ain’t gonna stand by idle and watch our quasi-capitalistic society swirl down the drain. He’s the wrench in the plan that will create the crack in the WON’S veneer. Donald loves the battle strategy.


132 posted on 03/23/2011 10:44:33 PM PDT by sjneuf
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To: Hojczyk

Video: Donald Trump- China is laughing at us!
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/2489349/posts

Donald Trump: I’d love a trade war with China! [video]
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2624876/posts

Donald Trump Favors “25% Tax” on Chinese Goods; Considering a Run for President – Video
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/2622059/posts


133 posted on 03/23/2011 10:46:01 PM PDT by familyop ("Dry land is not just our destination, it is our destiny!" --"Deacon," "Waterworld")
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To: Lazlo in PA

100% agree with you. Thus far he’s the ONLY one with the balls to make the (lack of) bc an issue. That alone gives him credibility.


134 posted on 03/23/2011 10:46:01 PM PDT by tatown (Obama is a turd)
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To: matthew fuller
Nobody, NOBODY, who isn't affiliated with the two major parties, has some actual, personal knowledge of politics/how our government works from the inside, can be an effective president. That's why no third/fringe party candidate can or should win the presidency.

Perot fed off the government teat his whole business life, so he had some ( well, little ) knowledge; just not enough.

Ike had the backing of both parties, before he was elected. The GOP took care of him, once he was elected. The Dems would have done the same, for him, should he have succumbed to their importuning.

Getting his employees out of Iran doesn't count for much, when put up against getting a Bill through Congress. Obama got what he wanted, because he left the work up to Pelosi and Reid and didn't have to lift a finger. Perot and any third/fringe party person would never have that advantage.

135 posted on 03/23/2011 10:46:38 PM PDT by nopardons
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To: Hojczyk
Donald Trump Vs Sarah Palin -- Republican Presidential Candidates 2012
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/2673314/posts


136 posted on 03/23/2011 10:46:58 PM PDT by familyop ("Dry land is not just our destination, it is our destiny!" --"Deacon," "Waterworld")
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To: Hojczyk

Trump to Cavuto, “Obama will drop to his knees and kiss Chinese Hu’s Hand”
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/2660661/posts


137 posted on 03/23/2011 10:47:46 PM PDT by familyop ("Dry land is not just our destination, it is our destiny!" --"Deacon," "Waterworld")
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To: Hojczyk

Sarah Palin.. ROCKS.

I love how she makes liberals and other intellectual BOOBS froth at the mouth.

Seriously, when among some liberal or rino deektards. Just say... “hey man, what about....SARAH PALIN”?

HA ha, they just go nuts!!


138 posted on 03/23/2011 10:48:09 PM PDT by Professional
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To: matthew fuller

I am confused as to why she needed her medical treatment paid for to begin with. As a wife of active duty military her medical expenses should have been covered.


139 posted on 03/23/2011 10:48:27 PM PDT by Tammy8 (~Secure the border and deport all illegals- do it now! ~ Support our Troops!~)
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To: Hojczyk

Chris Matthews Accuses ‘Birther’ Donald Trump Of “Going Primate”
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/2690886/posts


140 posted on 03/23/2011 10:49:00 PM PDT by familyop ("Dry land is not just our destination, it is our destiny!" --"Deacon," "Waterworld")
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