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Poll: Trump’s entry into the race would hurt Palin the most
Hotair ^ | March 23,2011 | Allahpundit

Posted on 03/23/2011 8:01:22 PM PDT by Hojczyk

It’s weird to think of him pulling votes from anyone, but … Palin? The candidate with the single most devoted base in the entire field?

Draw me a Venn diagram of their respective constituencies, please.

Ten percent of Republicans and independents who lean Republican say they would most likely support Trump for the GOP’s 2012 presidential nomination.

That would place him fifth on the list behind former Arkansas Gov. and 2008 Republican presidential candidate Mike Huckabee at 19 percent, former Massachusetts Gov. and 2008 White House hopeful Mitt Romney at 18 percent, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich at 14 percent, and 2008 GOP vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin at 12 percent…

“Removing Trump’s name from the list and allocating his voters to their second choice gives Huckabee 21 percent and Romney 19 percent – essentially unchanged from January. In a Trump-less field, Gingrich gets 15 percent, up from 10 percent in January, and Paul goes from 7 percent to 11 percent. Palin is the big loser, dropping from 19 percent in a no-Trump round in January to just 13 percent now,” adds Holland.

That’s the fun part of the poll. The less fun part is that Democratic enthusiasm has jumped to 56 percent, trimming a 22-point Republican advantage to … just six. I’m trying hard not to attribute that to a backlash on the left against Wisconsin, but it’s the most compelling explanation I can think of.

As for the Trump/Palin overlap, maybe there’s a portion of disengaged Republican voters who tilt towards the candidate with the highest name recognition. Normally that’s Sarah, but That Guy From “The Apprentice” out-celebrities even her. Similarly, could be that some righties are looking to liven up the debates for fear of a Romney/Pawlenty/Gingrich/Daniels soporific nightmare. Palin and Trump would both achieve that. Or maybe some of Palin’s support right now is as a protest vote by people disaffected with the establishment GOP. I’m skeptical of that, though, since protest votes don’t normally go to candidates like her who can actually win.

If the Trump vote is coming from people who are simply looking to spoil a ballot as a kiss-off to the top contenders in the field, I would think he’d be pulling more from someone like Ron Paul (who actually finished two points behind Trump) than from her.

All theories welcome. Via JWF, here he is


TOPICS: Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: birthertrump
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To: nopardons
You're looking at him, because you don't like/agree with ONE THING Palin said, that I doubt you really understand the meaning of, without knowing anything at all about Trump.

I'm not looking at Trump as someone to vote for.

I also consider our credibility and the failure to prioritize the list of our enemies during this time when we're fighting the War On Terror to be big issues. Iran is one of those terror nations and number one enemy. Coincidentally the Iranians (who we know are legit freedom lovers) were ignored. Today is a sad day for them. I'm sure for them our credibility means nothing.

But politically, it will be a negative for Obama and a positive for whoever did not support it and pin Obama on that blunder.

141 posted on 03/23/2011 10:51:15 PM PDT by tsowellfan (http://www.cafenetamerica.com)
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To: familyop
He'll NEVER win the primaries.

He's just the newest "flavor of the week", to try to throw a monkey wrench in the Palin run.

Sure, he makes noises that you like, but he is "fool's gold".

142 posted on 03/23/2011 10:51:34 PM PDT by nopardons
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To: Hojczyk
Trump ready to spend $600 Million on Presidential Run
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2692575/posts


143 posted on 03/23/2011 10:52:50 PM PDT by familyop ("Dry land is not just our destination, it is our destiny!" --"Deacon," "Waterworld")
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To: HiTech RedNeck
Trump for pres, Palin for veep, I like the ticket. I LOVE Sarah, but I just watched her live on Gretta and she hasn't changed one bit. Platitudes and cliches and political rhetoric. ZERO substance. Her real knowledge of world affairs is surface only, no real depth. She is so busy with appearances that she apparently hasn't had time to crack open a book. I'd rather she gets her OJT in the veep spot. She's a great campaigner and crowd pleaser. Energy can be her focus. Trump meanwhile can kick ass & take names.
144 posted on 03/23/2011 10:53:42 PM PDT by faucetman (Just the facts ma'am, just the facts)
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To: tsowellfan
The people of Iran don't mean a damn to Dem Pols, nor the great unwashed voters.

Now, Darfur? Oh boy...........those people just LOVE to wring their collective hands over that.

FYI.......Sarah talked a lot about Iran tonight. You would have enjoyed hearing her.

145 posted on 03/23/2011 10:54:43 PM PDT by nopardons
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To: ilgipper

“He voted for Bush both times...but he did sour on him big time in the second term.”

Gee, sounds like me.


146 posted on 03/23/2011 10:55:23 PM PDT by faucetman (Just the facts ma'am, just the facts)
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To: familyop
You want someone to buy the presidency, with their own money?

You want someone like that, who has donated BIG BUCKS to the likes of Rahm Emmanuel, Hillary Clinton, Chuckles Schumer, Harry Reid, and Charlie Rangle ?

147 posted on 03/23/2011 10:57:00 PM PDT by nopardons
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To: RockinRight

Hell, I’ll vote for Obama before I ever vote for Trump. I can’t believe people are taking his threats to run seriously. He is Perot 2012 version.


148 posted on 03/23/2011 10:57:13 PM PDT by upsdriver (to undo the damage the "intellectual elites" have done. . . . . Sarah Palin for President!)
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To: faucetman
You and I saw two different programs, even though we both watched the same show.

Trump knows far less than Sarah does, about that stuff.............except for the "deals" he's made in Dubai and all over the world. He's only angry at China, right now, because they charge him more than he wanted to pay.

149 posted on 03/23/2011 10:59:21 PM PDT by nopardons
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To: editor-surveyor
“Obama is ineligible regardless of his time or place of birth because his father was not a citizen”

How do you know for sure who his father is? Have you seen his real birth certificate? I have no idea whose name is on the original. I don't know his true birth date. First the birth certificate, then if he has a legit one, on to NBC.

150 posted on 03/23/2011 11:00:18 PM PDT by faucetman (Just the facts ma'am, just the facts)
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To: nopardons
I'll check out Sarah on Iran tonight.

She's very good on her energy stance and other issues.

Who would you like to see as her VP?

151 posted on 03/23/2011 11:00:37 PM PDT by tsowellfan (http://www.cafenetamerica.com)
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To: upsdriver
I'm with ya!

I'm trying to figure out why those, HERE, of all places, would be turned by sleazy Donald Trump and none of them appear to know a damned thing about him.

152 posted on 03/23/2011 11:01:33 PM PDT by nopardons
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To: Hojczyk

Donald Trump blames Arab [Muslim] Oil for the world crisis
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/2179672/posts

Donald Trump Generates Presidential Buzz, Says He’s Pro-Life
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2671743/posts

President Trump? Billionaire considering 2012 run (Wants obama to release BC)
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2691316/posts

NBC reboots ‘Apprentice’; Trump would hire Palin
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/2473421/posts

Trump: Obama ‘Isn’t Doing Anything in Middle East’
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/2666006/posts

Trump: Mideast Explosion Could Destroy OPEC, Lower Oil Prices
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/2666127/posts


153 posted on 03/23/2011 11:02:38 PM PDT by familyop ("Dry land is not just our destination, it is our destiny!" --"Deacon," "Waterworld")
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To: upsdriver

You said: “Hell, I’ll vote for Obama before I ever vote for Trump...”

Really? You would actually cast a vote for a Kenyan muzzy that hates America and has avowed terrorists as friends, before voting for Trump? Really??

Retarded post of the day award goes to you dude.


154 posted on 03/23/2011 11:05:00 PM PDT by tatown (Obama is a turd)
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To: Hojczyk

I could vote for Trump in the primaries because he will owe no political debt to any donors. And he is not a wishy washy mild mannered aww shucks republican like the rest of them except Palin.


155 posted on 03/23/2011 11:06:14 PM PDT by Bridge_toofar (Islam grows silently like cancer and when large enough it kills the host)
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To: All
Re: the Birthers...

The best way to get back at these race baiting anti-birthers is NOT to mention what info is that's in question.

HOW DO WE KNOW OBAMA IS OLD ENOUGH WITHOUT A BIRTH CERTIFICATE?

Remember, tell them it's NOT as much Obama we are worried about it's the precedence he is setting for all future candidates who run without the proper documents.

156 posted on 03/23/2011 11:07:16 PM PDT by tsowellfan (http://www.cafenetamerica.com)
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To: tsowellfan
Re her VEEP..........I haven't thought that far; though I know who I hope she would NOT choose.

I would hope that she wouldn't pick one of her opponents in the primary, but that has a rather long history of who many do choose, for several different reasons. And I do NOT want her to pick a person of color ( West, Jindal, etc. ), because that just looks like trying too hard to beat Obama and blacks won't give a damn about a black GOPer! And a BIG hell no to Christi !

157 posted on 03/23/2011 11:08:27 PM PDT by nopardons
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To: editor-surveyor
Obama is inelligible regardless of his time or place of birth because his father was not a citizen. Its just as simple as that

Fact known before the 2008 election and acknowledged by the candidate. Candidate nevertheless elected and sworn in. Fact irrelevant. Fact is, citizen by birth == natural born citizen. The Court has not ruled otherwise, and they are highly unlikely to so rule now.

Sorry, but he'll have to be ousted at the ballot box, the GOP not having two thirds of the Senate.

158 posted on 03/23/2011 11:09:12 PM PDT by cynwoody
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To: nopardons
"Perot fed off the government teat his whole business life, so he had some ( well, little ) knowledge; just not enough. "

Sorry, Perot was in the computer services business, and while he did have gov't contracts, he was not exclusively on the gov't tit his whole business life. After serving his country in the Navy, he worked for IBM until he was 32, then he founded EDS.

And if you think that getting his employees out of Iran dosen't count for much, remind me to never work for you.

159 posted on 03/23/2011 11:11:21 PM PDT by matthew fuller ( A feast is made for laughter, and wine maketh glad the life; and money answereth all things.)
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To: nopardons
“Did you see Sarah with Greta tonight? SHE WAS AMAZING; TALKED POLICY, WORLD EVENTS, AND BURIED OBAMA ! “

I watched it and I was frankly embarrassed for Sarah. She appeared clueless. She looked great though. Just a bunch of one liners, no substance. Her lack of real knowledge is evident. I love her instincts, her values, her spunk, but she just isn't well informed on details. After all this time, she hasn't brushed up on knowledge. Sorry.

160 posted on 03/23/2011 11:12:49 PM PDT by faucetman (Just the facts ma'am, just the facts)
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