Posted on 04/17/2011 12:32:25 PM PDT by library user
~ EXCERPT ~
Both short and long-term confidence in the U.S. housing market continue to fall, with homeowners now expressing the highest level of pessimism in two years.
A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that just 15% of homeowners expect the value of their home to go up in the next year while 33% expect the opposite and think the value of their home will decline.
The current figures reflect more pessimism than a month ago when 19% were optimistic and 30% pessimistic about the value of their home over the next year.
Looking longer term, only 39% of homeowners now think that the value of their home will go up over the next five years. That’s down five points from last month and the lowest level of confidence measured by Rasmussen Reports. In April 2009, 55% expected their house’s value to rise in five year’s time.
Currently, 18% say the value of their home will go down over the next five years and 37% expect little change.
**SNIP**
The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.
(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...
It is the mobility factor that is the problem; moreso than the price or the “investment”.
I have lived in this house for 12 years; and it is my 6th one.
There was a time that you could put a house on the market at a reasonable price
with a fair amount of confidence that it would sell in 3 months or so;
but that is not so any more.
Home ownership is becoming unattractive for many people.
Houses in Roseville CA that were going for 1.1 million four years ago can now be had for $550,000. A big loss for some, but a big win for others.
Boomers have great big homes that they must dispose of. New families today don't need these houses. The glut will continue.
Either our recollections differ, or the city/state you are in is different than my experience in Sacramento & San Francisco, California.
We had a housing downturn in 1990/91. For the next few years, it was definitely not easy to sell a house in 3 months. By 1998 or so, then yes, it was easy to sell a house within 3 years.
I was just getting out of college, but I recall the recession of 1981/82 with some very high interest rates caused by Volcker to end the recession. Definitely not a time to be able to sell a home in 3 months. By the time I bough my home in 1987, we were back in the start of a new housing boom and yes, it was easy to sell a house in a couple of months.
Cycles.
1980 - 1986, down.
1987 - 1991, up.
1991 - 1997, down.
1998 - 2006, up.
2007 - ?, down.
Cycles. Up and down. These keep repeating.
Right now we are in a down housing cycle with an economic depression and a credit crisis. Triple whammy. So yes, it is exceedingly difficult for many houses to sell in many places, and it doesn’t help that many owners trying to sell have not been able to keep the house up or bring it to perfect condition for the sale.
A neighbor across the way is selling and the paint is awful If I were him, I would beg, borrow, or steal a paint job or offer my realtor an 8% commission if he would pay for the paint up front and take the cost off the backside of the sale. In this market, he is not going to sell a dumpy looking home in an area where 99% of the homes are more or less immaculate - great paint/roofs, manicured lawns. Most people will look at his paint and assume he was as poor with the house maintenance as he was with the outside paint - which would not surprise me if true.
So yes, we are in a horrible cycle that will last a while and selling a house quickly is next to impossible. In your case, I guess it makes sense never to buy again. For most people, after houses become truly affordable again - as they will — many people will be anxious to buy.
I guarantee more housing up cycles. It is undeniable. In your case, you don’t want to be tied down. Well, that is always a strong consideration. There is nothing wrong with the freedom of renting.
from an earlier thread on april 17th ( link)
| year (jan) | note | my home $ | gold $/oz | my home in gold(oz) | silver $/oz | my home in silver(oz) |
| 2006 | 425k | 550 | 772 | 9.25 | 45,946 | |
| 2007 | dems move into congress | 380k | 625 | 608 | 12.75 | 29,804 |
| 2008 | dems have congress for one year | 290k | 885 | 327 | 16.00 | 18,125 |
| 2009 | dems take whitehouse, 0bama steps in | 270k | 860 | 314 | 12.00 | 22,500 |
| 2010 | dems in full swing | 250k | 1150 | 217 | 17.50 | 14,286 |
| 2011 | GOP takes back the house | 224k | 1360 | 164 | 29.00 | 7,724 |
| 12 APR 2011 | 222k | 1452 | 153 | 40.05 | 5,543 | |
| 14 JUL 2011 | 188k | 1586 | 118 | 38.46 | 4,888 |
although it may look like my home value dropped to 50% of what it was in 2006, in real world buying power, it is now 16-20% of what it was in 2006.
the dems and progressives have done a real job on the people of the US
do the math yourself. check out zillow.com for your home value over the passed 5 yrs. plug those values in, calculate the value in terms of ounces of gold and silver... and you'll see how much you've lost
update:
how much exactly? as of july 14th:
| denomination | # ounces | market value ($) |
| gold | 654 | 1,037,244 |
| silver | 41,058 | 1,579,501 |
SFH, 5,500 sq ft, every possible amenity, 2007 price was
2.2 mil, then 1.9, then 1.7, 1.5. down to 995K. Guy
walked into the bank and offered them 500k cash and was
accepted. A beautiful home on groomed grounds. Stole it.
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