Posted on 04/20/2011 11:48:58 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Marist released more data from its poll this week, the same survey that found a significant slide in Barack Obama’s approval ratings — the survey with a +8 advantage for Democrats in the sample. In fact, Democrats comprised 35% of the sample, while Republicans only accounted for 27%. And yet, according to Marist, Obama only has 37% of their respondents committed to a second term for the President (via Newsalert):
President Barack Obama has officially announced that he will seek re-election next year, but he faces an electorate that still needs convincing. According to this McClatchy-Marist Poll, a plurality of registered voters nationwide — 44% — say they definitely plan to vote against Mr. Obama in 2012. 37% report they definitely plan to vote for him, and 18% are unsure.
Despite the president’s transition into campaign mode, little has changed on this question since McClatchy-Marist last asked it in November. At that time, 48% of voters said they will not support the president in his re-election bid while 36% thought they would. 16%, at the time, were unsure.
Even among Democrats, Obama isn’t a slam-dunk. He gets 70% of that 35% to commit to his re-election bid, but 12% “definitely” plan to vote against him. Obama-cons are in short supply as well, as only 3% of Republicans in the survey will vote for the incumbent. Nearly a majority of independents have made up their mind to oppose Obama, 47%, with only 32% planning on casting a vote for him and 21% undecided.
On other demographics, Obama doesn’t fare much better. He only holds 66% of self-described liberals, with 19% planning on opposing him. Moderates split 44/34 in his favor, a weak result, but not nearly as weak as the income demographics. Obama loses both the under-$50K and over-$50K demos by almost identical splits, 37/45 and 39/45 respectively. Among age demos, Obama only leads among the youngest bloc (18-30YOs), and that just barely a majority, 51/29. Perhaps most alarmingly, he’s losing among both men and wome, 37/43 and 38/45 respectively.
Do Republicans benefit from Obama’s woes? Mitt Romney gets into a statistical dead heat with Obama at 45/46, but so far he’s the only one who does. Mike Huckabee comes close at 43/48, and both improved significantly since January. Sarah Palin, on the other hand, not only doesn’t put a dent in Obama’s numbers at 34/56, it’s almost identical to her January result of 30/56. Donald Trump loses by a similar margin, 38/54. Bear in mind, though, that the eight-point sample skew towards Democrats plays a big role in the head-to-head numbers, and the movement in this series is what actually matters. Romney closed twelve points in the gap, and Huckabee closed ten points, since January.
The Republican nominee matters, but the incumbent has big problems no matter who he ends up facing. Unless Obama can make the economy move in the next year, he is on his way to a single term in office.
My God...convinced of WHAT!!!
Head to head polling is stupid at this early date however ROmney and Huckabee both poll pretty good for being this far out from election day. If the primary were going to be between these two men, I’d support Huckabee.
I would vote for either man over Comrade O.
As if he ever left campaign mode. Of course he had to announce he's running again or he'd be a lame duck for the next two years. Soros can't have that, not with the destruction of the US uncompleted. He'll hit the campaign trail and laugh at birthers but right before the election he'll come up with some lame excuse to suddenly drop out of the race. There's no way he'll get around the NBC issue no matter how many talking heads are willing to pimp for him.
His base needs to be convinced that his STASH is not about to run dry!
This could be the reason why the GOP and the GOP Media is working so hard to help Obama
Attacking Obama Eligibility issue has been a great help for Obama, and his friends on the GOP side will make sure Obama wins.
You notice how the Liberal Media and GOP Talk Radio have teamed up to attack Birthers, Trump, and anyone who brings up Obama’s Birth Cert
The GOP have an easy win, if they want it. Judging by the way the GOP and The GOP Media have acted...they are helping OBama
I think this sampling difference means less than Mr. Morrisey is trying to make out. It's fairly standard practice to attempt to normalize results to some presumed "standard population." Various pollsters use different ways (which they keep close to the vest) to normalize against their version of a "standard population" -- Zogby's famous "special sauce" is one example.
For example, if we assume party breakdown (Rep-Ind-Dem) goes as 30-40-30, then the 38% and 27% values would be normalized (i.e., scaled) on that basis.
FLASHBACK APRIL 3 2007
http://news-releases.uiowa.edu/2007/april/040307poll-data.pdf
DEMS
Clinton 25.5
Edwards 23.2
Obama 16.3
REPS
Guliani 17.5
McCain 14.4
Romney 9.6
There is a lesson to learn in early polling data. It will change.
Marist sees no future for Marxist!
Does anyone remember what the disparity was in 2008 - did the Dems enjoy an 8-point advantage? I believe that the 2010 national turnout was evenly split 35/35 with 29% going Independent. It would be unlikely that the GOP could do as well with Obama on the ticket, but I don't think he'll get the kind of turnout he got 4-years earlier - could be wrong.
It's surprising Romney is doing so well. Huckabee I can understand because he's had several non-FNC media appearances the last several weeks. But, Romney has been almost invisible. I can't remember the last time I have seen Romney on television.
Hillery alert!!!! Hillery alert!!!!
This should make that old witch dust off her broomstick and take a ride to the DNC primaries.
Looking back on the recent election and projecting forward, (.) could lose Florida, definite, North Carolina, definite, Ohio, probably, Pa, possibly, Indiana, Probably and Wisconsin. If so, he cannot win the election no matter if he carries the entire left coast and China.
Obama is in trouble, but can still win re-election.
Obama beat McCain by 365 to 173 in the electoral vote.
Obama has virtually no chance of carrying any of the McCain states, so the Republican nominee starts with a base of the 173. Add about 6 due to gains of electoral votes in these states due to reapportionment, and we’re up to 179 as a base for the Republican.
Add to the Republican column North Carolina, Virginia, and Indiana, which Obama carried but likely won’t this time. Add back Ohio, which Obama is in trouble in. Add all these, and the Republican is in striking distance of the 270 electoral votes needed. Florida could well go Republican in 2012 also. If all of these happen, Obama can’t win re-election, just due to these states alone.
I don’t underestimate Obama and the Dems. and the MSM, but, he’s clearly vulnerable in 2012.
Also, no one without a birth certificate has ever been reelected either.
“I would vote for either man over Comrade O.”
Agreed though neither one is my first choice i would support either one if they emerged the GOP nominee
If the rate does not drop - AND REMAIN - below 36%, the stain will win re-election in 2012.
The fix is in—Obama will be the next president—and president for life. Hillary is done, Palin finished, In a race between Mitt and Obama I will vote Obama and finish the work of bringing the USA into the worker’s paradise. See you in the Labor camps Comrade. i will be digging salt next to Glen Beck.
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