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Gay Marriage Opponents Now in ZOT
FiveThirtyEight ^ | 4-20-11 | Nate Silver

Posted on 04/21/2011 4:42:01 AM PDT by technonerd

A poll from CNN this week is the latest to show a majority of Americans in favor of same-sex marriage, with 51 percent saying that marriages between gay and lesbian couples “should be recognized by the law as valid” and 47 percent opposed.

This is the fourth credible poll in the past eight months to show an outright majority of Americans in favor of gay marriage....

As we noted last August, support for gay marriage seems to have been increasing at an accelerated pace over the past couple of years. Below is an update to the graph from last year’s article, which charts the trend from all available public polls on same-sex marriage going back to 1988.

...Both the California and Maine results were close, and because opinion is shifting so quickly on the issue, the outcomes would probably be different if they were voted on again today....

But Republican candidates, who have placed less emphasis on gay marriage in recent years, probably cannot expect their opposition to it to be a net electoral positive for them except in select circumstances. If support for gay marriage were to continue accelerating as fast as it has in the past two years, supporters would outnumber opponents roughly 56-40 in the general population by November 2012....

One way to read the trends of the past few years is that we have passed an inflection point wherein it is no longer politically advantageous for candidates to oppose same-sex marriage, which in turn softens opposition to it among the general public, creating a sort of feedback loop and accelerating the trend.

(Excerpt) Read more at fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com ...


TOPICS: Constitution/Conservatism; Culture/Society; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: gaystapo; homosexualagenda; lies; marriage; moralabsolutes; peoplearestupid; perverts; poopypolls; propaganda; publicopinion; sheeple; sodomhusseinobama; trends; zot
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This is a rather ominious analysis from the social-conservative viewpoint. It's even more ominous when one considers the source -- Nate Silver correctly predicted 49 out of 50 states in the 2008 election. It would be easy to fall back on denial if this were just some blowhard pundit, but coming from a number-cruncher with a solid track record it has to be taken seriously.

The question is: where to go from here? Ignoring the problem won't make it go away, and simply butting heads against the trend is unlikely to do any good. The best obtainable solution is probably to sidestep the problem by separating marriage and state.

1 posted on 04/21/2011 4:42:04 AM PDT by technonerd
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To: technonerd

( Gay Marriage Opponents Now in Minority ) .... OHH HOGWASH !!


2 posted on 04/21/2011 4:43:23 AM PDT by American Constitutionalist (The fool has said in his heart, " there is no GOD " ..)
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To: American Constitutionalist

It would be nice to think so, but (as I noted) we’re talking about an analysis from somebody with a very impressive track record.


3 posted on 04/21/2011 4:44:31 AM PDT by technonerd
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To: technonerd

Polls of “Yes” or “No” on gay “marriage” always show gays winning. Actual votes always show them losing. Nevertheless, your point is well made. The answer would seem be: keep winning elections.


4 posted on 04/21/2011 4:45:50 AM PDT by jmaroneps37 (Conservatism is truth. Liberalism is lies.)
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To: technonerd

It doesn’t surprise me.. When an empire/country is ready to fall, it usually starts with the culture.. We will be viewed like the Greeks and Romans. So Sad as it didn’t have to be this way.


5 posted on 04/21/2011 4:49:49 AM PDT by scbison
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To: technonerd

I don’t believe it. Polls have become a brain washing tool.


6 posted on 04/21/2011 4:50:53 AM PDT by Sacajaweau
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To: technonerd
Gay Marriage Opponents Now in Minority

Is that right?

Then, why is the measure always defeated when We The People are allowed to vote on it? And, overwhelmingly so at that.

7 posted on 04/21/2011 4:58:49 AM PDT by Puppage (You may disagree with what I have to say, but I shall defend to your death my right to say it)
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To: Puppage

Defeated, yes. Overwhelmingly, no. And the margins keep shrinking — that’s the statistics Silver is tracking.


8 posted on 04/21/2011 5:02:00 AM PDT by technonerd
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To: technonerd

BULLSHIT.
I do not believe this poll for one second.
A majority of Americans still recognize homosexual acts as perversions,crimes and sin.


9 posted on 04/21/2011 5:02:09 AM PDT by SECURE AMERICA
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To: technonerd

I wonder how scientific this poll really is. Article doesn’t say.

Looks like a continuation of the “use” of polling to propagandize the population towards the goals of the Progressives, to me.


10 posted on 04/21/2011 5:03:36 AM PDT by Bluebird Singing
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To: technonerd

When does CNN do it’s poll on the 10 Commandments?


11 posted on 04/21/2011 5:06:12 AM PDT by ardara
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To: technonerd

4 polls in 8 months on this subject. Hmmm, they (the Progressives) are workin’ it!


12 posted on 04/21/2011 5:07:53 AM PDT by Bluebird Singing
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To: technonerd

Welcome to FR, by the way.

I would expect this to only get worse. It’s a strong delusion...and it’s worldwide.


13 posted on 04/21/2011 5:11:10 AM PDT by anniegetyourgun
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To: technonerd
Bwahahahahahaha. Who would be stupid enough to claim this now? Anybody remember Prop 8 in California, AKA the gay capitol of the USA? I believe it passed, making gay marriage illegal. The homos had to go to "their" judge to get it blocked because the pro-gay people couldn't even get a majority here. Hey, you homos, guess what, blacks and Mexicans don't like homo marriage either, and the Mexicans are taking over. You lose.
14 posted on 04/21/2011 5:15:34 AM PDT by fr_freak
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To: technonerd
Overwhelmingly, no.

Take a look at the outcome in MI, GA, and tell me they weren't overwhelmingly won. I do agree with you that the margins keep shrinking.

15 posted on 04/21/2011 5:35:34 AM PDT by Puppage (You may disagree with what I have to say, but I shall defend to your death my right to say it)
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To: technonerd

The progressives always have to have someone to champion. First it was labor unions, then civil rights, then women’s rights, now homosexuals. Once they’ve forced gay marriage down our throats, what next? Polygamists? Pedophiles? They will have to champion someone. It’s their nature.


16 posted on 04/21/2011 5:43:32 AM PDT by klgator
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To: American Constitutionalist

I don’t care if I am the last one standing on this issue. I will continue to oppose gay marriage to my last breath because I believe IT IS WRONG.


17 posted on 04/21/2011 5:53:26 AM PDT by Ronin ("A society of sheep must in time beget a government of wolves" -- Bertrand de Jouve)
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To: technonerd

The goal is to fight the obmination that is gay marriage no matter what. Shall we step aside because some number crunchy nerd runs a poll that makes it look like a bare majority in this country is all for sodomite marriage. Hell no! This is just another attempt in a long train of abuses brought upon this country. One day, the left in this country will get payback. All it takes is leadership.


18 posted on 04/21/2011 5:59:26 AM PDT by ohioman
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To: Ronin

“I don’t care if I am the last one standing on this issue. I will continue to oppose gay marriage to my last breath because I believe IT IS WRONG.”

Amen to that!!!!!


19 posted on 04/21/2011 6:07:20 AM PDT by Tomato lover (Prov 29:2 - look it up)
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To: ohioman

In Massachusetts our Govenor appointed a homosexual to the Superior court not because she is qualified but because she’s a lesbian.


20 posted on 04/21/2011 6:09:55 AM PDT by Colonial35
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