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Charting the Course to $7 Gas (Fruits of Keynesian/Obama economics)
Mises Institute ^ | April 25, 2011 | J. Kevin Meaders

Posted on 04/26/2011 7:31:29 PM PDT by sickoflibs

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To: metmom

“Where’s the outrage at obama at gas prices?

Seems to me that when Bush was in office that when gas made a little blip up, the MSM was screaming bloody murder.

Gas is now higher than ever and still going up and what do we hear?

crickets........”

Democrats have previously established that the price of gasoline is the responsibility of the sitting president - so I have “a right” to complain about it. Loudly.


21 posted on 04/26/2011 10:25:04 PM PDT by The Antiyuppie ("When small men cast long shadows, then it is very late in the day.")
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To: Uncle Ike
I bet Berry would be happy with $7 gas if it wouldn't ruin his chance for a second term. Maybe he should have got down on his knees and serviced the Saudi king instead of just doing a curtsy. It's sickening that we have to beg Arabs to produce more oil because our corrupt government won't allow us to drill our own.
22 posted on 04/26/2011 10:25:54 PM PDT by peeps36 (America is being destroyed by filthy traitors in the political establishment)
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To: The Magical Mischief Tour
Good Samaritan robbed in Glendale Heights

This is in the heart of Dupage County, IL, among the most affluent in the country. The headline was a front page banner in the print edition this morning ... well yesterday morning, 4/26.

23 posted on 04/26/2011 11:44:32 PM PDT by dr_lew
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To: peeps36
I bet Berry would be happy with $7 gas if it wouldn't ruin his chance for a second term.

It won't have to get to $7/gal to kill his re-election. $6/gal would do it. At that price, trucking would come to a screeching halt, literally. Then, the crap would truly hit the fan...

the infowarrior

24 posted on 04/27/2011 12:42:42 AM PDT by infowarrior
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To: sickoflibs; All

$3.50 gas becomes $10.50 gas.
______________________________________________________________
I’d be willing to see that happen if it would get Barack Hussein Obama out of the White House.


25 posted on 04/27/2011 5:24:49 AM PDT by no dems (At least Trump has a pair. If the GOP has no fire in the belly in 2012, we're going down.)
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To: no dems
I’d be willing to see that happen if it would get Barack Hussein Obama out of the White House.

I'd be willing to see it happen if it puts Obama on trial for the crimes he's commmitted as President, and puts a supermajority of Conservative Republicans in all 3 branches of government.

26 posted on 04/27/2011 5:27:03 AM PDT by meyer (We will not sit down and shut up.)
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To: no dems; Scanian; ding_dong_daddy_from_dumas; stephenjohnbanker; Impy; Marine_Uncle; ...
RE :”$3.50 gas becomes $10.50 gas.....I’d be willing to see that happen if it would get Barack Hussein Obama out of the White House

On the Stimulus and economy Boehner did exactly the right thing, he went on show after show for two years 2009-2010 and repeated :”The American people want to know, Where are the jobs?” over and over. It was simple and obvious and to the point. Republicans are not doing as good a job at that this year. They havent come up with something similarly simple and to the point to repeat for gas prices(How hard can that be???). .

On the other side Democrats have a series of poll tested talking points they repeat over and over on the talk shows and congressional Republicans sound unprepared to respond to them when asked on camera. I saw this again at another Ryan WI town hall meeting yesterday , audience members one by one hit him with pre-scripted poll tested Democrat political positions like :"Pay for my medicare by taking away big oil tax cuts".

I have come to the opinion that in politics the caving(compromising) is just the formality, the actual loss is not being able to keep control of the message. To win requires anticipating the other sides talking points and responding with specific poll tested responses.

There are radio talk show host that will tell you that we win if congressional Republicans do what they say is right(ram something through) , even if public opinion is 3 to 1 against it. But that is equivelent to Pelosi-Reid-Obama ramming through Obama-care Spring 2010. Public opinion is still sour on that and they lost the House. (a shame we cant tie that to gas prices.)

27 posted on 04/27/2011 5:48:36 AM PDT by sickoflibs ("It's not the taxes, the redistribution is the federal spending=tax delayed")
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To: peeps36; betty boop; sickoflibs; Arthur Wildfire! March
I bet Berry would be happy with $7 gas if it wouldn't ruin his chance for a second term. Maybe he should have got down on his knees and serviced the Saudi king instead of just doing a curtsy. It's sickening that we have to beg Arabs to produce more oil because our corrupt government won't allow us to drill our own.

What I think is going to happen is that gas will get extortionately high, and then obama will work some *miracle* to drop gas prices significantly in time for the election and get the credit for it somehow. That will convince a whole bunch of idiots who forget that he made this mess to begin with, to vote for him.

I think that's the strategy.

28 posted on 04/27/2011 6:56:15 AM PDT by metmom (Welfare was never meant to be a career choice.)
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To: metmom; peeps36; betty boop; sickoflibs; Arthur Wildfire! March
RE :”What I think is going to happen is that gas will get extortionately high, and then obama will work some *miracle* to drop gas prices significantly in time for the election and get the credit for it somehow. That will convince a whole bunch of idiots who forget that he made this mess to begin with, to vote for him. I think that's the strategy.

Ironically two Democrats have told me that gas prices will go down before the presidential election claiming they always do. I cant remember why they went down in fall 2004 temporarily but in late 2008 they went down because of world economic collapse, and it didnt help Republicans (until now.)

I find hard to imagine, short another world economic dive like the EU crisis, how oil prices will go down by next year.

29 posted on 04/27/2011 7:09:10 AM PDT by sickoflibs ("It's not the taxes, the redistribution is the federal spending=tax delayed")
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To: sickoflibs

The evil one(s) will figure out some way to do it.

I’m convinced that this is all fixed anyway. Oil is not at it’s record high, and yet gas prices are way higher than ever.

If gas followed oil prices, oil should either be through the roof, or gas should be much cheaper.


30 posted on 04/27/2011 7:32:06 AM PDT by metmom (Welfare was never meant to be a career choice.)
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To: sickoflibs; metmom

I wouldn’t put it past Soros to stockpile oil now, jack up the price, and then dump it during the election. Pump-and-dump. Make some money and support the left. That’s Soros.


31 posted on 04/27/2011 7:43:26 AM PDT by Arthur Wildfire! March (George Washington: [Government] is a dangerous servant and a terrible master.)
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To: Arthur Wildfire! March; metmom
RE :”I wouldn’t put it past Soros to stockpile oil now, jack up the price, and then dump it during the election. Pump-and-dump. Make some money and support the left. That’s Soros.

Interesting thought. That would be a good time to buy if true

32 posted on 04/27/2011 7:59:23 AM PDT by sickoflibs ("It's not the taxes, the redistribution is the federal spending=tax delayed")
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To: sickoflibs

I don’t really know. There is a fee for storing oil [even for speculators], but if Soros purchased or leased storage capacity, you would have a good lead. He’d wwant to buy quickly before the price goes up and then sell quickly before the price drops.


33 posted on 04/27/2011 8:26:16 AM PDT by Arthur Wildfire! March (George Washington: [Government] is a dangerous servant and a terrible master.)
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To: metmom; Arthur Wildfire! March
RE :” I’m convinced that this is all fixed anyway. Oil is not at it’s record high, and yet gas prices are way higher than ever. If gas followed oil prices, oil should either be through the roof, or gas should be much cheaper.

That was a very popular argument in 2008 when gas prices went through the roof and consumers were in a tizzy about it. Another one I used to hear was :”I know the station is price gouging because I saw them change the price sign and there was no delivery truck there.” In fact once again Democrats are investigating those prices.

There are a number of things to consider before you accept a simple model like that:

1) Gasoline is not oil, it has to be refined and mixed lots of expensive additives like wasteful ethanol. A worst case example is Iran, they have a flood of oil but gasoline shortages, or 'not a drop to drink'.
2) Gasoline refinement and distribution is completely independent of oil prices. Before ethanol you could pipe gasoline, now it must be trucked long distances.
3) The gas stations will raise their prices to make the most money. That may or may not track their current cost of gasoline and it can include anticipation of future price increases if they are doing good enough business.
4) because of 1-3 any local shortages of gasoline can cause price jumps as happened when ethanol first was mandated, and happens typically before summer.

If a simple rule like the above was valid(gas price=oil price+), we could have a Soviet style centralized economy with Obama setting the prices of gas everyplace.

I appreciate you giving me the opening here :)

34 posted on 04/27/2011 1:04:20 PM PDT by sickoflibs ("It's not the taxes, the redistribution is the federal spending=tax delayed")
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To: sickoflibs
...in late 2008 they went down because of world economic collapse, ...

They started down a day or two after W started going through the motions of making it easier to produce oil in the Gulf.

35 posted on 04/27/2011 5:35:21 PM PDT by DuncanWaring (The Lord uses the good ones; the bad ones use the Lord.)
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To: sickoflibs
Eventually the banks will start lending again, and the velocity of money will increase.
With respect, No, they won't. The savings rate is so low because interest rates are low. This came about as a consequence of two things -- first, Greenspan basically blackmailed Congress into bringing the budget into balance; second, rates had been deregulated, ending the era of the 5% passbook rate.

Capital formation played a role alongside the business tax cuts (accelerated depreciation etc) in the Reagan recovery, but that capital wouldn't have formed in the first place had it not been for the economy-killing Carter years when money market rates peaked a little north of 20%. There was so much cash around that lending jumped bigtime, leading to lots of construction jobs as Boomers used their large savings (made possible in part by those Carter-era interest rates) and declining rates from lenders and innovations like ARMs to grab vacation property on the water (lakes, oceans) and build posh second homes.

The bull market for stocks started in the Reagan years, as money shifted out of cash vehicles due to declining returns.

Lower interest rates have been around since the mid- to late-1980s, and capital formation has cratered. One of the first big achievements for the Clinton admin was NAFTA and GATT (both were longterm goals of Republicans), which with other policies led to rapid erosion of domestic industrial employment, government takeover of mortgage lending, and the rise of the so-called service economy. That died in along with the Clinton stock bubble during the mid- to late-1990s.


36 posted on 04/27/2011 7:03:58 PM PDT by SunkenCiv (Thanks Cincinna for this link -- http://www.friendsofitamar.org)
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To: SunkenCiv
RE :”Eventually the banks will start lending again, and the velocity of money will increase.....With respect, No, they won't. The savings rate is so low because interest rates are low.

I believe what he is saying, consistent with posts I have done with Shiff, Faber, Rogers and Mises is that as soon as any economic activity or confidence rises inflation will take hold(I doubt houses will inflate soon). He is talking about inflation not a real recovery.

Now what is possible is that inflation, or Feds efforts to stop it, stalls the economy again which avoids hyperinflation but gives us stagflation kind of like now. That was always my theory.

Your comments seem consistent with Austrian theory wrt low savings and capital formation..

37 posted on 04/27/2011 7:18:53 PM PDT by sickoflibs ("It's not the taxes, the redistribution is the federal spending=tax delayed")
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To: Arthur Wildfire! March

” I wouldn’t put it past Soros to stockpile oil now, jack up the price, and then dump it during the election. Pump-and-dump. Make some money and support the left. That’s Soros. “

Very possible, as a matter of fact!


38 posted on 04/28/2011 12:33:03 PM PDT by stephenjohnbanker
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To: metmom

“What I think is going to happen is that gas will get extortionately high, and then obama will work some *miracle* to drop gas prices significantly in time for the election and get the credit for it somehow. That will convince a whole bunch of idiots who forget that he made this mess to begin with, to vote for him.”

I’m not concerned about this; he has been extremely light in the miracle department so far.


39 posted on 04/28/2011 9:34:21 PM PDT by The Antiyuppie ("When small men cast long shadows, then it is very late in the day.")
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To: sickoflibs

As was pointed out to me a couple of years ago, not only do gas stations need to make money on gasoline, they also have to pay for the next tank of gasoline.

It’s all well and good for a gas station to make $.50 per gallon on a tank that cost them $3.00/gal to fill. But, if the next tank costs $3.75/gal, it’s going to be a problem.


40 posted on 04/29/2011 1:10:18 PM PDT by stylin_geek (Never underestimate the power of government to distort markets)
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