Posted on 05/01/2011 9:30:09 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
The folks at Rasmussen are either geniuses or they have way too much time on their hands. I can never make up my mind which. In any event they continue to occupy themselves with a dizzying array of scenarios to question Americans on, generally just when they are sitting down to dinner. This week’s offering is a rather odd question where they want to know who will win the GOP nomination… if none of the people we think might win the nomination decide to run.
What if they held a Republican Primary contest and the front-runners didn’t show up? Or what if voters look for anybody but the front-runner? How do primary voters view the dark horses who are possible contenders for the party’s 2012 presidential nomination?
A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely GOP Primary Voters finds that Minnesota Congresswoman Michelle Bachmann earns 27% support when pitted against eight other possible second-tier candidates. Former Senator Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania earns 12% of the vote, while Georgia businessman Herman Cain picks up nine percent (9%).
Texas Governor Rick Perry gets seven percent (7%) of the likely primary vote, followed by Jon Huntsman, former Utah governor and ex-ambassador to China, with three percent (3%) backing. Former Louisiana Governor Buddy Roemer, retired New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson and Michigan Congressman Thaddeus McCotter each pick up one percent (1%) of the vote.
You can fairly poll on a wide variety of topics and come up with some statistically meaningful results, make no mistake. But the question at least needs to begin with a basic assumption which is fairly incontrovertible. This one seems to be built on a foundation which involves far more speculation and creative judgment than could be judged as scientific.
First of all, how does one arrive at definitive groupings of who is a “dark horse” and who is a front-runner? Looking at nothing but the most recent math, The Donald is the presumptive GOP nominee, but particularly after his one night stand-up routine in Sin City, does anyone really think he can win? (Assuming he even has any real intention of running?) Is he still a “front-runner?”
Palin and Huckabee, sure. But… are they definitely running? We all know Mittens wants to run more than life itself, but he’s been rather busy shooting himself in the foot lately. And where is Pawlenty? He isn’t put in with the “dark horses.” Look, I love me some T-Paw, but is he one of the front-runners now? But he’s clearly at least as much in the running – if not more so – than quite a few on their “second tier” list. The polls are constantly shifting, so it’s tough to say where Rasmussen came up with the break point to determine where they began listing people with the rather pejorative “second tier” moniker.
But assuming it’s somewhere in the ballpark, how does the list look to you? Just for fun, I matched up this poll’s results with the answers supplied by Hot Air’s readers to a question posed by Patrick Ishmael not too long ago. He asked who you would support if Palin was taken out of the race. (A good benchmark since the HA readership doesn’t come up with many other answers if you leave her in.) If we then remove the rest of the Rasmussen designated front-runners the order you lined them up in was: (Provided in raw vote count for comparison, not percentage)
Rasmussen had:
Interestingly enough, Hot Air’s readers really don’t come out all that differently from the rest of the country in terms of the finishing order, with one notable exception: Santorum and Cain are pretty much reversed. Cain is wildly popular with Hot Air readers, but barely rises above the background noise level nationally. And Santorum is down in the grass at Hot Air, but shows some surprising potential according to Rasmussen.
Just something else to chew on for Sunday. Have at it.
Palin has slipped another 10 points below the front runners in the last 2 weeks.
Her chances are not looking good.
I’m not worried about a thing. It’s 19 months before the election and it has just barely started for a few.
If Sarah does not run, I vote for whomever she endorses (working on the assumption she does not endorse Mittens - NEVER will I vote for that ass-hat).
Wish Santorum was doing better :(
Watch Marco Rubio on MTP today....there’s MY dark horse..
An old rule of thumb when evaluating research: the absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.
If one wants to understand Sarah Palin, conventional wisdom doesn't help much. I suspect she is comfortable with where she is, and with what the future holds.
Only if Cain is a liberal/Communist/Marxist.
I think Sarah doesn’t really want to run - she and her family are in danger - who would willingly submit the ones they love to more of what the “tolerant” ones have dished out?
Someone here commented that her continued presence on FOX is another indication that she isn’t running.
I’m resigned to accepting that for the time being she will be nothing more than a big influence on politics - which in itself is a big deal.
you are right, and it matters not a whit what folks “nationally” think since the primaries are very state specific. The only polls that matter (until election day) are the polls in the weeks right before a given state holds it primaries.
Folks like Cain have small national numbers, but much higher numbers among tea party folks and acitivists who WILL vote in primaries for sure.
WHAT IF: Pollsters didn't ask supid "WHAT IF" questions?
WHAT IF: The Germans had won WWII?
WHAT IF: Young Bill Clinton had been convicted of raping a coed?
WHAT IF: Barack Obama had stayed in Kenya?
The list of candidates shows one why the (R)s had no chance in 08. I can not imagine the people electing Romney, the Hukster, Timmy, old fossil Newtie, Mitch. In fact, I guarantee these 5 will lose in the general. All of the following I like. Bachman - somewhat there but not quit however close. Palin - Have the feeling she's so vilified that the press will destroy her. Would be a great one in 16. Trump - something tells me that this guy can win it all & I'm willing to bet that conservatives would be satisfied with him. West, Paul & Cain just don't have the pizazz. So Trump or Palin are the 2 & Palin's whole future will be costly if she fails. Again I say The Donald will be the headlines & force Big Ears to a mental breakdown. If he would lose or win it is then 4 yrs later & I see Palin as the prez for 8 yrs.
You’re making a whole slew of assumptions based on sheer ignorance of what’s going on in her growing grassroots organization.
Ooops...forgot your "personal interest" disclaimer!
Well, I guess she went to Madison and delivered that big speech in below-freezing weather in the face of a howling union mob just for kicks?
You’re making a whole slew of assumptions based on sheer ignorance of what’s going on in her growing grassroots organization.
Since you seem to be very knowledgeable about her grassroots organization, maybe you can share with us ( the ignorant ones ) as to what’s happening there that shows us an inkling of where her personal interests lie in terms of running for the presidency because people like me sure as heck don’t know what she’s up to in this area.
And I take it that you don't even live in Iowa?
RE: And I take it that you don’t even live in Iowa?
Nope, I’m from the Empire State. A state that’s SURE to vote for a Democrat.
RE: An old rule of thumb when evaluating research: the absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.
Remember the other rule of thumb : Absence of Evidence does NOT necessarily imply EXISTENCE of evidence.
RE: If one wants to understand Sarah Palin, conventional wisdom doesn’t help much. I suspect she is comfortable with where she is, and with what the future holds.
Based on what I see, individually, she’s in a good place at this time — being a pundit, a gadfly and a money maker. If she had the presidency on her sights, she would not have quit the governorship at all.
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