Who Wins the GOP “Dark Horse” Primary? (Rasmussen's Poll Result Will Surprise You)

Hotair ^ | 05/01/2011 | Jazz Shaw

[Finatic]

But with Rubio wouldn’t there be the same natural born citizen issues?

Allen West 2012

[PSYCHO-FREEP]

I believe Palin will do just as you say. She will remain a speaker/Pundit and pick and choose her audience. Her book sales and her personal life is too important for her to go through what she went through in ‘08. It would be measurably worse this time around for her and her family.

Can't say I blame her one bit.

[CheezyD]

Palin/Bachmann 2012!

[Virginia Ridgerunner]

Nope, I’m from the Empire State.

Then how can you possibly know what is going on in Iowa at the grassroots level?

Here's a hint for you: Check the numerous Palin blogs.

[Virginia Ridgerunner]

Her book sales and her personal life is too important for her to go through what she went through in ‘08.

Really, you PDS'ers don't understand her or her motivations at all, and you sure as heck ain't listening to her, much less read her two books.

[diogenes ghost]

"..I guarantee these 5 will lose in the general."

Well, other than poor grammar, that is just about the most prescient statement I've seen around here lately./s

Boy, you gotta wonder why any of those 5 would waste any time or money in a campaign. You should contact them, I'm sure they would appreciate knowing they are doomed.

[Dr. Sivana]

If you’re serious about being POTUS, you cannot ignore Iowa.

It is May, 2011. Reagan announced his candidacies in November, in both 1975 and 1979.

Now, you might say that times and primary schedules, and the importance of the Iowa primary changed since then. Indeed it has.

What is just as sure is that new "rules" are being shaped for 2012. Changes in delegate allotment, primary schedule, McCain-Feingold repeal, the candidate field itself, all of that, change the texture of this upcoming race.

In 1976, Jerry Brown and Frank Church blew what could have been competitive challenges to Jimmy Carter. They were playing by 1968 and 1972 rules. Only Carter saw the emerging importance of Iowa in providing an opportunity to break from the pack. Carter came in second behind UNCOMMITTED. In those days, Favorite Sons like Byrd and Daley would run in their home states to control blocs of delegates. Dear gone days. It was foolish for Jerry Brown to run in '76 as if it were '68. It would be just as foolish for Mitt Romney to run in 2012 as if it were 2004.

Iowa is the make-it state for the Mike Huckabee who wants to be seen as the alternative to an undesirable front-runner. The candidate who does not yet have the star power or financial resources to make it through a long primary run without some early notoriety.

Is it important for Sarah Palin to do well in Iowa. Yes. Should she be criss-crossing the state right now? Not necessarily.

Right now, the chatter is that Huck and Romney, or maybe Trump, are front-runners. This would be bad for Palin if she didn't have the confidence to hold fire until she sees the white of the enemies' eyes. Make them move first. MOST candidates do not have the luxury of holding their fire. She does.

We all know that Iowa is not about the handful of delegates one leaves the state with after pulling a 27% plurality in a caucus. It is all about perception. Romney finished ahead of McCain in Iowa, but the then-moribund McCain campaign performed "above expectations." (To his credit, McCain was the only serious candidate against Ethanol subsidies.) His third place finish propelled him to a win in New Hampshire. Romney's second place position sealed his defeat in the same, despite a vastly superior war chest and staff, and comparatively friendly treatment on conservative radio. By not pushing Iowa too hard, Palin may be allowing lowered expectations, where a place or show equals a win.

The same people who say now that Palin should be barnstorming Iowa are the same ones who thought she should take some time off to bone up on foreign policy and details of other national issues.

Palin is playing for 2012, not 2008. She has already established the ability to raise funds and fill arenas. Like Reagan, she can announce closer to the primary dates. Pawlenty and those guys cannot.

As far as criss-cossing the state, she can wait to see who the field will be. Ifd Huckabee is in, she plays it differently than if he isn't. Like anybody else, Iowans are more impressed with someone who comes in December than in June.

Rush Limbaugh stated the other day that consultants are paid to remold a candidate into something that can win an election. Sarah Palin's need for consultants may not be the same as that of a Daniels or a Pawlenty ... and certainly not of a Romney.

If Sarah Palin is serious about running for POTUS, she will be serious about Iowa, at the right time.

[newzjunkey]

But with Rubio wouldn’t there be the same natural born citizen issues?

No one seem to know when his parents became citizens. That may not even matter with the Obama precedent. Rubio was born in Miami.

[SeekAndFind]

re: hen how can you possibly know what is going on in Iowa at the grassroots level?

---

from news like these for instance :

http://beingmiddleclass.org/showthread.php?3264-How-long-can-Sarah-Palin-put-off-Iowa

I assume that these guys are full time observers of the GOP primaries.

[C. Edmund Wright]

>>>> But with Rubio wouldn’t there be the same natural born citizen issues?>>>>

Folks you are missing the boat with this focus on the parents status. That ONLY matters if the baby is born OUTSIDE the US...due to travel, the military, etc.

ANY baby born INSIDE the US is a natural born citizen regardless of the parents unless their parents are diplomats from another country - whereby the baby is a citizen of THAT country not the US.

Think about it. We all know that. People are tripped up due to the wording of the clause about the parents when it’s talking about the eventuality of someone being born elsewhere but still being a natural citizen.

[Virginia Ridgerunner]

Another assumption.

[SeekAndFind]

Of course, what else can I assume if evidence is not present?

I’ll believe it when I see it.

[Friendofgeorge]

Because IMHO, MSM (that includes Ras and Fox News) are pushing Michelle Bachmann.

MSM wants it out there that MB has surpassed Palin in popularity (this is clearly not the case) but it`s what they are up to.

Frank Luntz is crooked as well

[Friendofgeorge]

BREAKING BACHMANN NEWS....CBS News Political Correspondent Jan Crawford just endorsed Michelle Bachmann on the CBS Early show.

This is quite an endorsement, now she has the support of CBS Jan Crawford to go along with NBC Andrea Mitchell and ABC George Stephanopolis (sp)

Now her/MB only problem is she seems to have more support from the MSM than she does from GOP primary voters...hmmm???