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Posted on 05/11/2011 6:50:00 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Move over, CBS. Hang up the kid-leather gloves, WaPo/ABC. There’s a new sample-skewing sheriff in town, and it’s the Associated Press. In a new definition of “outlier,” the AP reported that its latest poll from GfK Roper shows Barack Obama with a 60% approval rating in a survey of 1001 adults, with even his approval on the economy shooting past the 50% mark:
President Barack Obama’s approval rating has hit its highest point in two years — 60 percent — and more than half of Americans now say he deserves to be re-elected, according to an Associated Press-GfK poll taken after U.S. forces killed al-Qaida leader Osama bin Laden.
In worrisome signs for Republicans, the president’s standing improved not just on foreign policy but also on the economy, and independent Americans — a key voting bloc in the November 2012 presidential election — caused the overall uptick in support by sliding back to Obama after fleeing for much of the past two years.
Comfortable majorities of the public now call Obama a strong leader who will keep America safe. Nearly three-fourths — 73 percent — also now say they are confident that Obama can effectively handle terrorist threats. And he improved his standing on Afghanistan, Iraq and the United States’ relationships with other countries.
Oddly — or perhaps not — the AP report doesn’t include a link back to the survey’s raw data. In order to find it, one has to go to GfK’s site for its AP polls. The partisan breakdown in the sample is found about halfway through the PDF, and it explains a great deal about how Obama managed to get such a high boost in this poll while others showed shallow bumps that had already started to subside.
The Dem/Rep/Ind breakdown in this poll is 46/29/4, as AP assigned most of the leaners to the parties. That is a 17-point gap, more than twice what was seen in the 2008 actual popular vote that elected Obama. It only gets worse when independents are assigned properly. When taking out the leaners, the split becomes — I’m not kidding — 35/18/27. Oh, and another 20% “don’t know.” That’s significantly worse than the March poll, in which the proper D/R/I was 29/20/34, and far beyond their post-midterm sample of 31/28/26. It’s pretty easy to get Obama to 60% when Republicans are undersampled by almost half.
Frankly, this sample is so bad that no real insights can be gleaned from it. I think it’s time to break out the Billy Madison verdict:
According to this, it seems to be working on the general publik:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/president_obama_vs_republican_candidates.html
Obama is proving to be Teflon coated like Clinton was.
The other telling thing is the recent outreach to Al Sharpton, who was considered radioactive before the last election.
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I heard this poll on WOR this morning and the lib who was reading it was gleeful - gleeful. I absolutely do not believe this data.
They explain calling land line phones. It is of my opinion that only people with no common sense still have a LISTED land line phone. So therefore liberals were polled.
http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com/methodology.html
They don't even try, being as they don't show up in them.
46 + 29 + 4 = 79
46/79 = .58 or 58%
29/79 = .21 or 21%
4/79 = .05 or 5%
so- they sampled a total of 79 people, 60% of them democraps, and then announce that it is 'worrisome' for republicans that Obama got 60%?
I think more telling is that he appears to have gotten ZERO PERCENT of independants and GOP.
If he gets ZERO independants and GOP in the next election, he is TOAST in a landslide.
My only question is why they allow ANY percentage for Republicans or Independants. Just make the breakdown D-100/R-0/I-0 and broadcast THOSE results!
It doesn’t matter what we think of this, or that this blatant polling fraud is uncovered.
It’s being repeated dutifully, over and over again, by the adoring media, and on Social Media over and over again.
As George Orwell would say, it’s fast becoming the CURRENT TRUTH, and there isn’t one damn thing we can do about it.
And all the other residents of Harlem was still on the court or waiting by their mailbox for their food stamps.
Good information to have at hand as you hear this reported as big “news” over the next several days.
This poll is (not surprisingly) being loudly touted over at DailyKos.
I was wondering what was going on.
46/29/4 sample?
That is 58% (D), 37% (R), and 5% (I)
And they think that this poll means that the GOP should be “worried”????
Look at the data another way- It means that ZERO PERCENT (R) and (I) pick Obama~!
If Obambi gets 0% of (R) and (I) in the next election HE IS TOAST BY A LANDSLIDE
Simple. The pussies at the WH were plainly crapping in their pants wondering where’s the big bounce in the polls. So, voila. A quick call to AP which basically said, “Hey boys. Can you whip up a poll showing Sir Barry getting a big bounce. But don’t make it too obvious, ha-ha.”
Pravda is a joke compared to A(lways) P(ropanganda). If the RCP site had any balls, they’d note this in dark red with a super asterisk and kick this out of the average saying they could not in good conscience include this obliviously skewed POS poll since they don’t want to insult the reader’s intelligence.
When the GOP gets serious about REVERSING the trends toward atheistic socialism in this nation, that is when they will see undeniable proof they will win. Until that time, let the Dems be the socialists and the Republicans and the nation will be the losers.
People are not going to vote for big government Republicans ever again, in meaningful proportions. Bush taught a great lesson.
Of course, the poll doesn’t match these polls:
http://polltracker.talkingpointsmemo.com/
Poll my zip code (21044) and you’ll see Obama’s approval rating at 79%.
Notice the definition of push poll included all pubbie “examples”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Push_poll#Political_push_polls
Polls of all adults are garbage.
Likely Voters in the appropriate percentages is the only valuable pre-election metric.
The best metric, of course, is winning.
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