You missed this, they knew it would be unpopular when it was pushed for a vote:
It might be a political time bomb — that’s what GOP pollsters warned as House Republicans prepared for the April 15 vote on Rep. Paul Ryan’s proposed budget, with its plan to dramatically remake Medicare. No matter how favorably pollsters with the Tarrance Group or other firms spun the bill in their pitch — casting it as the only path to saving the beloved health entitlement for seniors — the Ryan budget’s approval rating barely budged above the high 30s or its disapproval below 50 percent, according to a Republican operative familiar with the presentation.
GOP ignored Ryan plan red flags(Politico, May. 23, 2011 )
When I saw the Town hall meeting clips with the angry questions (prepared with dem talking points) and the weak/unprepared responses by Republicans I knew the bill was in serious trouble. I just saw this today.
I don’t think this was all about the Ryan budget.
If it was the dems would have done much better. They basically did a good job of getting their 2010 voters back out but they didn’t add to the total.
You’d expect they’d add a bunch of voters.
Instead, a bunch of GOP voters stayed home, but there’s no evidence they switched to the dems.
Would really help if there was an exit poll here.
And who knows how much the scandal hurt things here?
But, to lose a district that went GOP 75-25 6 months ago and has been historically GOP for a long time, is not a good sign. Fortunately it’s early enough that there’s plenty of time before Nov 12. We can learn from this and adapt.
Ignore politico. They are for the other team.