Skip to comments.Poll: Montana Senate Race Remains Tight
Posted on 06/21/2011 8:07:03 PM PDT by Clintonfatigued
A new poll found Montana Rep. Denny Rehberg (R) running statistically even in his 2012 challenge to Sen. Jon Tester (D).
Democratic firm Public Policy Polling reported Rehberg taking 47 percent and Tester 45 percent, further evidence that this is one of the most competitive Senate races in the country.
(Excerpt) Read more at rollcall.com ...
This is from the liberal PPP Polling firm, so it should be regarded as an outlier poll. I’d rate Rehberg as the marginal favorite.
The incumbent/challenger dynamic doesn’t apply here, as both are Federal officials elected statewide. It’s much more like a race between two incumbents.
If Rehberg doesn’t win by at least 10%, I’ll be shocked.
Remains tight? Seriously, there are sixteen months until the election so I feel confident in saying that certainly 90 percent of the general population doesn’t even know who is challenging who let alone what even three of their positions are. As far as I am concerned to call this a race at this point is simply PPP trying to form a meme for their preferred liberal candidate so that if they supposedly pull ahead they can claim the other candidate (which they were biased against in the first place) has a hemmoraging candidacy.
PPP is a very busy left of center polling operation looking to shape media cycles to prove that all is well in the Democrat camp. They also set up polling questions in an attempt to make Republicans look like ignorant knuckledraggers. The real story here is that this race is already close.
That said, I do not dismiss polls. PPP is at least somewhat reputable. The 2012 elections will be tough. No one should have any delusions that it will be easy to beat any of these libs.
If PPP has him up two, it’s probably 10. They suck.
Should we count it as ‘in the bag’ or work for it?
How can this race be close? Did Montana go blue when I wasn’t looking or is the GOP’er a weak guy?
It will be the real montanans vs the out of staters that live in Billings, Missoula, and Bozeman. Let’s hope there isn’t a libertarian that siphons votes from Rehberg. That is why Tester beat Burns in the 2006 election.
I went drinking with Rehberg at the 2001 Bush inugural. Fun guy.
Working hard always seems prudent.
Well...Tester is the incumbent, so I guess it is possible. The other Senator is Max Baucus...also a Dem.
Montana is Republican in most Presidential elections, but has a strong labor union movement and often elects DemocRATS in down-ballot races.
Geez. As it currently stands, PA is a solid red state in comparison to MT. Who would have ever thought. I forgot about Baucus the drunk. I always figured MT was a right wing place.
I see they also have a Rat Gov, Schweitzer. Here in PA we have a solid Reagan Conservative Gov. The only joker in our deck anymore is lisping poofter Bob Casey, who is about to be handed his walking papers judging by his polls.
Actually PPP did better than Rasmussen in predicting Governor and Senate outcomes in Nov. 2010 (http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/11/04/rasmussen-polls-were-biased-and-inaccurate-quinnipiac-surveyusa-performed-strongly/). So I wouldn’t dismiss them out of hand.
But it’s way too early to predict what the outcome will be. This is just a snapshot in time. People aren’t paying attention now, let alone seriously considering whom they’ll vote for.
PPP says Tester is in trouble. That’s good enough for me. Anyone who lives in Montana will tell you Tester is nothing more than Baucus’ rubber stamp. Baucus will announce some sort of legislation and let Tester get all the credit. The latest example of Tester trying to win over votes is he’s been working on getting Amtrak service in to Billings. Amtrak is a waste of federal dollars, and we can’t afford to expand it in to areas it’s never been to and expecting it to be profitable.
Montana never went blue, Tester and Schweitzer ran as Conservatives because they couldn’t win as Liberals and while Tester was running FReepers were jumping on Tester’s bandwagon because Conrad Burns got smeared with corruption charges that were later found to be unfounded.
If even PPP has the Republican ahead that is good.