Posted on 06/27/2011 5:05:14 PM PDT by The Magical Mischief Tour
There may be those among the less than brainwashed lemmingerati out there who have noticed what, as we have pointed out for the past month when reporting on the various manufacturing and regional Fed indices, has been an epic collapse in the appropriate data series. As John Lohman so kindly demonstrates, the two month implosion has been beyond epic, and while certainly the biggest drop in the past decade, may also be the all time worst ever.
To the point of this post: the last time we had an economic contraction of this magnitude was back in February of 2008, which was two months into the most acute recession in post-depression history. We are confident that once the groupthink wraps its head around the fact that the auto production based renaissance is not coming, and the economy officially tumbles into the commode of Ben Bernanke's fiat dungeon, the NBER will determine (with an appropriate 12-18 month delay), that the current recession started in April of 2011.
Rut Roh.....and no Rorge in sight to blame it on.
It's not government manipulation in a free market, it's the free market destroying itself out of pure hatred for itself that is destroying our free market!
Why didn't I see it before QE1?...
The truth is that we are now and have been in a depression and the art of the lie is all that the government and the dims have left.
LLS
Meanwhile, stocks are up due to American-owned foreign manufacturing, and government employee spending on services. ;-)
Oil’s still high, and the dollar’s still low. Democrats and Republicans will raise taxes and continue big government spending. ...surfing to default.
The list, ping
Let me know if you would like to be on or off the ping list
Um, OK, I’m not an economist.
This may be the wrong thread to ask, but, riddle me this!
It seems that EVERY time I attempt to purchase items needed for MY manufacturing efforts, they are on back-order.
Does not matter if they are U.S. made consumer items I incorporate into my products (I use zero Chinese junk), or high quality raw materials such as truly ROUND steel tube or 7075 aluminum.
If the economy is really so bad, there should be an oversupply, not a shortage.
Intelligent manufacturing would keep their customers happy by filling orders, lest they lose the sales to a competitor.
Shortages to me result in my outgoing deliveries being delayed, my income delayed, my spending delayed, the people who’s jobs depend on my spending being laid off!
Want my vote for the next election?
Cut the red tape, subsidies, fuel cost, tax penalties, and/or whatever else is keeping this vicious cycle going!
And while D.C. fiddles....
Depression not recession
There must be nothing left to downsize, and no old inventory clear. The Depression continues.
Must be an article from “The Daily Procrastinator”.
Thanks The Magical Mischief Tour.
And as far as "stocking" goes. NUMEROUS items I would really like "right.now." are "out of stock and on back order. Bug strips (old school kind), my kids' bike inter-tubes (and they are a pretty standard "walmart" size tire), Liquid Cascade instead of that EPA regulated granular crap that ruins your glasses, plain no frills black shingles (basic three tab)..I bet I can go on, but I won't bore the forum.
Bottom line, without orders, how much raw material would you be willing to bet on keeping on site waiting for buyers? (asking honestly)
Why would anyone have an oversupply in their inventory at this point?
When you order , then your supplier orders, then his supplier orders, then his supplier puts the order in the factory queue, then the miners....
No one wants to get stuck holding anything they can’t sell quick before the economy gets even worse.
No doubt. If there is bad news for American regular people buy stocks. They will go up.
You have just described a "deflationary depression".
Perhaps I was not clear.
I am trying to order DIRECTLY from the U.S. manufacturer.
Back-order quotes of 90+ days are too common.
Finished product or raw material, makes little difference.
I’m small-fry, but these are fairly large to VERY large companies I am trying to buy from.
Some of us in manufacturing would like to fill OUR orders in a timely manner! We are trying to grow, we don’t qualify for the “Too big to fail” subsidies and tax breaks, we have to EARN our income.
I hear you. It is troubling. The metals supplier we buy from has shrunk from a very large facility with several trucks to deliver raw material to a two man operation with one part time truck. We used to get material quickly to feed our machine shop, but now it might take weeks to get material.
We really have to try to look ahead as best as we can but it’s very difficult, as you don’t want to spend money on material you might not have an immediate need for.
They should manufacture fewer ATMs.
I know exactly what you mean. I don’t have a fully coherent explanation for it at this time.
From talking with manufacturing sources, more than one source reports to me that “around March of this year,” orders suddenly came in a big burst and cleaned them out of machines, raw materials, new machine tooling.
From only one source, I heard that their inventory had climbed high enough that they had slowed down production, so it took them time to ramp up after the burst in orders in March.
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