Posted on 09/09/2011 7:10:13 AM PDT by AuH2ORepublican
Republican Bob Turner holds a six-point lead in next week's special election to replace disgraced former Rep. Anthony Weiner, D-N.Y., according to a new Siena College poll released early Friday that shows voters in the overwhelmingly Democratic district are poised to deliver a stinging rebuke to President Obama and his party.
Turner leads Democratic Assemblyman David Weprin in the poll, 50 percent to 44 percent. Six percent of likely voters in the Sept. 13th election are undecided.
Discontent with Washington and the president is at the heart of Turner's shocking upset bid. In a district he won by 11 points just three years ago, Obama's favorability rating is now upside down in the Siena poll, with 54 percent having an unfavorable opinion of Obama and only 43 percent viewing him favorably. A remarkable 38 percent of Democrats and 68 percent of independents hold an unfavorable view of the president.
The Republican also has all the momentum: A Siena poll conducted four weeks ago showed Weprin with a six-point advantage. Turner's lead does fall barely within the margin of error, but the poll shows that the GOP is on the verge of a most unlikely victory in the Outer Boroughs-based district, where Democrats hold a three-to-one advantage on the voter rolls.
But the Democratic registration advantage is tempered by the poll's crosstabs. Turner runs much stronger among Republicans, holding 90 percent of the vote, than Weprin does among Democrats, taking just 63 percent. Independents are overwhelmingly lined up behind the Republican, with 65 percent of them supporting Turner and 27 percent choosing Weprin.
Turner's own internal polling last week had shown a tie, while the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee touted a poll showing Weprin with an 8-point lead. But clearly the DCCC has seen that tenuous sign of hope evaporate too, going up yesterday with a half-million-dollar ad-buy slamming Turner in the closing days of the race.
All of the late money may not have much of an impact, however. According to the Siena poll, 79 percent of likely voters say there is no chance they will change their mind, and 17 percent say they are unlikely to change their mind, leaving just 5 percent who say they are "not very certain" or "not certain at all" in their vote.
Voters have a more positive view of Turner than they do of Weprin. Turner's favorable/unfavorable ratings are in the black (48 percent favorable/34 percent unfavorable), while voters are split evenly on Weprin (41 percent favorable/41 percent unfavorable).
Voters believe Turner is running the more positive campaign, leading Weprin on that question, 43 percent to 32 percent. Correspondingly, a plurality of likely voters believe Weprin's campaign is more negative.
Likely voters in the district are overwhelmingly pessimistic, with 74 percent saying the country is headed in the wrong direction; Turner wins a striking 94 percent of those voters. Mood toward the direction of New York is much rosier, though -- a 47-percent plurality say the Empire State is on the right track.
The economy remains voters' top concern, with 32 percent listing it as the most important factor in making their decision, including nearly half of Turner's supporters. But there is a possible beacon for Weprin: Medicare and Social Security isn't far behind at just 28 percent, and that's been the focus of late, with Democrats falling back to their successful strategy that helped win them a GOP seat in the western New York's 26th District this May.
Nearly half of Weprin's supporters say the candidates' positions on entitlements is driving their vote. But the poll shows that strategy has its limitations: Turner actually has a four-point lead among voters aged 55 and older, 49 percent to 45 percent.
The historical Democratic dominance in the district is evident in one area, however: By a 49-to-38 percent margin, likely voters think Weprin is most likely to win the election, including 23 percent of Turner's supporters.
The Siena poll was conducted Sept. 6-8 and surveyed 886 likely voters. The margin of error is +/- 3.3 percent.
I'm hoping he wins, of course, but I'm not taking anything for granted.
Isn’t this the contest where the Dems infiltrated the Republican campaign with “spies”, and where they had some Dem thug using brownshirt tactics to disrupt the Republican’s campaign events?
Great! Though not a gain, it’s still good news!
If Wiener is really toast among usually loyal Democrats, that may have one further effect.
Wiener married Huma (with Bill Clinton officiating!) as a way to give Hillary a useful beard for her “body girl.”
But with Wiener now in the toilet, where does that leave Hillary? Her beard is no longer very respectable or credible.
No doubt the media will avoid speaking about her lesbian proclivities anyway, as they have done for many years, but this reaction may undercut her chances, at least a little.
Weiner won with 93% of the vote in 2008, I can't quite figure it out. Orthodox Jews are not actually GOP locks like say Pentecostals. They are conservative compared to Reform but not so much compared to many Christian conservative sub groups. Hillary and Bill got in trouble with some rabbis around Monsey (or was it Monroe?)with donations shenanigans and I think charges came up.
Past 3 POTUS elections the district has gone around 55% Democrat except 2000 when it went 68%
71% white, 14% latino, 4% black, 11% Asian
I guess the whites vote majority GOP but enough peel off and vote with the minority Dem blocks...in national elections...strange voting...93% for Weiner in 2008 yet only 55% for Obama or Kerry?
It would be a major boner if the Dems lose this seat.
It seems that Weiner left a bad taste in their mouths.
It’s a hard race to win for a Democrat.
I can go all day.
i aint driving down thare to ‘elp out. staying home.
That 93% numnber can’t be correct..mujst be a typo..you need to check it..I’m sure it’s available online somewheres..in 2010 he won about 60-40, I believe
Remember that this 9th District was drawn up in a very weird shape so as to include relatively few blacks and Hispanics. That gives the GOP more of a shot here, and the dissatisfaction with Obama could be the straw that breaks the 'Rats' back.
Yes.
Sending out a big New York Freeper ping in hopes those who can vote do, and those who can't call every one they know in Turner's district and urge them to vote in this special election. Might be friends are not aware of the election Tuesday!
As always those wishing off my ping list please let me know through FreepMail. If you asked before and got pinged here forgive me as lost my updated list and working from an old one. Just ask again please. Thanks!
I assume that if Weiner got 93% that no Republican ran.
the district is a very liberal community in NYC....I know of no one who lives there...nor do I know of anyone who knows anyone who lives there.....
and even if this works....he will be out by january of 2013 as this district is being absorbed due to NYers fleeing the state....
Sorry to report very few Freepers live in his district. Most of us seem to be in Manhattan.
The S.I. seat went back to red this past election.
Since 1980 (or maybe earlier), Staten Island has had a Republican congressman with only one exception (the Democrat elected in 2008 when Fossella dropped out due to his adultery scandal). Electing a Republican in a heavily Jewish district in Queens and Brooklyn is something different altogether. If elected, Bob Turner will get far more attention than Congressman Grimm (from NY-13) does.
Weiner beat Tuner 60/40 in 2010. Turner will probably come within a few points this time around.
Yes the Jewish population came up on Dennis Prager’s show, with a caller from the District. The caller noted Conservative ( and Hasidic Jews as well? ) are not happy with Weiner’s behavior and are letting it be known by this vote. Socially Conservative Dem’s they are, and I guess this time they have had enough....
Here’s hoping Turner takes it anyway! That would sure send a big message to the Ovomit Gang if a Republican took the VERY liberal district!
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