Skip to comments.For the Campaigns, Itís Already About Electoral College Math
Posted on 09/12/2011 6:44:32 PM PDT by Clintonfatigued
Straw polls, real polls, debates, caucuses and primaries these comprise the public side of presidential campaigns 14 months before Election Day. But behind the scenes, strategists for President Obama and his major Republican opponents are already focused like a laser on the Electoral College.
The emerging general election contest gives every sign of being highly competitive, unlike 2008. Of course, at this point in 1983 and 1995, Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton, respectively, were in trouble; and in 1991 George H.W. Bush still looked safe. Unexpectedly strong economic growth could make Obamas reelection path much easier than it currently looks to be. So could the nomination of a damaged candidate by the Republicans. On the other hand, a few more months like the preceding couple, and Obamas reelection trajectory will resemble Jimmy Carters.
These possibilities aside, both parties are sensibly planning for a close election. For all the talk about what Hispanics will do or how young people will vote, the private chatter is about which party column the vital swing states will favor. Its always the Electoral College math that matters most.
George Mason supported an Electoral College because
it would be as unnatural to refer the choice of a proper character for chief Magistrate to the people, as it would, to refer a trial of colours to a blind man. The Electoral College has survived only because it has evolved into the converse of Masons vision. The people in each state judge presidential character, decide the ballots cast by electors and blindly or not choose the colors that cloak the states on election night, either Republican Red or Democratic Blue.
(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...
It all depends on how conditions appear next year and whether Republicans nominate a good candidate.
I predict a 49 state landslide for Rick Perry...
Is it just me...or does Mitt Romney resemble Bob Dole?
'rats are red through and through.
One thing for sure, Illinois will never go to a Republican.
Other Freepers have made that point about the color scheme. History is on your side. It’s unfortunate that the colors assigned have been stamped onto the national conciousness.
I don’t accept them.
Strong economic growth? Not likely. Any increase in obama’s popularity will scare the crap out of business and the markets. In effect, this will act as a thermostat. Businesses are holding their breath.
Mitt Romney is the latest pro New Deal, pro Great Society candidate. He’ll do what he has to to destroy any real conservatives to get the support of the powers that be, who will then abandon him to support the democrat. We’ve seen his like any number of times.
It all depends on whether the GOP nominee blows bubbles with his drool. If he refrains, he will be elected in a landslide and it won’t be close.
I mean look at it this way: If a Pub can’t win against an unpopular President with 9% unemployment, $6-8T in new debt, taxes set to go up, a double-dip recession, etc., then a Pub will never win.
Originally the dims were red and republicans were blue. Sometime in the late seventies they flipped the colors around. Back then, there were only the big three networks and they realized that the red comparison would not be good for their agenda.
I agree this is possible, and very likely at the least, because as Larry Sabato wrote:
Unexpectedly strong economic growth could make Obamas reelection path much easier than it currently looks to be.
Unexpectedly strong ecomonic growth? BWAH HA HA!
I found some old videos on YouTube of 1980 election coverage - looks like Reagan’s states were blue and Carter’s red in that election. In 1984 and every election since then in the election coverage, Republicans have been colored red and Democrats blue.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JTMpQqDP-nk - 1980 coverage video
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ev_9YcM-HNI - 1984 coverage - video
Republican Wildcat is correct. It flipped between '80 and '84. Check his post #14. In '96 they were already showing dems blue, Pubs red.
Blue was used for the party holding the White House and red for the challenger.
Garde la Foi, mes amis! Nous nous sommes les sauveurs de la République! Maintenant et Toujours!
(Keep the Faith, my friends! We are the saviors of the Republic! Now and Forever!)
LonePalm, le Républicain du verre cassé (The Broken Glass Republican)
That's the way I remember it.
Now the colors need to be reversed whenever possible, rather than to roll over and go along.