Posted on 10/01/2011 11:40:25 AM PDT by smoothsailing
Timothy Bladel
October 1, 2011
Do any of the candidates running for the Republican nomination other than Gov. Rick Perry remember the 2000 election cycle? I am not going as far to say that the Perry camp has decided to make a calculated stand on the in-state tuition issue for the sake of the general election, but Republicans should not dismiss the importance of the Hispanics’ vote now and in the future.
It is widely known among those who live on border states that hard line positions on immigration can end a political career. As the white electorate shrinks over time, the GOP is going to have to find a way to gain a capacious share of the Hispanics’ vote. I’ve heard the chatter from the establishment, who claims that Hispanics care about the same issue most other Americans care about. This is true, but can anybody really claim they have an accurate count regarding how many Hispanics have family members who happen to be in the country illegally?
For this reason, I have to ask if it is wise for the other candidates to demagogue the in-state tuition issue?
I am going to set aside the infamous “heartless comment” for a second, and focus on the policy. Perry has come under fire for his unwillingness to budge from his position on immigration, the main one being the 2001 law he signed in Texas that allows children of illegal immigrants to pay in-state tuition rates at colleges and universities. Gov. Mitt Romney has made it the center point to attack Perry on in an attempt to paint it as a liberal stance in line with the thinking of President Obama, and as not a conservative position. Not only is this attack canard, it can have negative consequences on any candidate that has to run in the general election.
Since the 2010 election is often brought up as the reason the Republican candidates no longer have to walk soft on immigration, it is important to understand it has some fundamental flaws. I already noted that GOP is going to need to keep pace with Democrats in the growing Hispanic population. The suggested number to maintain is said to be anywhere from 40 to 45 percent of Hispanic votes. Looking to the midterm for a reference point is somewhat flawed because the midterm electorates often trend toward being the white, older, and college educated members. Democrats have not shown the ability to bring out their traditional constituents in off year cycles. Presidential elections tend to be a more diverse electorate, especially in 2008. We cannot forget about the fact that Hispanic voters tend to live in specific states, making their influence on the electoral map that much more significant.
This brings us to the premise, has Perry positioned himself to siphon Hispanic votes away from Obama? Let’s look at a few interesting facts.
According to the National Conference of State Legislatures, twelve states grant Texas style in-state college tuition to illegal immigrants stating “typically condition eligibility on attendance and graduation from a state high school and acceptable college admission applications.” Here’s the list of states in alphabetic order: California, Connecticut, Illinois, Kansas, Maryland, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York, Texas, Utah, Washington and Wisconsin. Three of the four states that have adopted this law are border states, making them directly affected by illegal immigration.
Perry has maintained that “if you say that we should not educate children who have come into our state for no other reason than they've been brought there by no fault of their own, I don't think you have a heart," and even though this has hurt him with his core base of conservatives, one cannot help but think this has to be attractive to Hispanics voters; a constituency that Republicans are going to need to siphon if they want any hope of winning the presidency now and in the future.
Perry’s defense against the exaggerated attacks from Gov. Romney and Rep. Michelle Bachmann has been to bring up the history of immigration in the United States; how can this not resonate strongly with Hispanics. He's used this same defense since the law passed, and by sticking to this defense, he can rightly claim that he is not like his closest rival Gov. Romney. Anything Romney says about this issue will make it that much harder for him to find any issue that resonates strongly with Hispanics, who I already stated is a key voting demographic.
When pushed on the federal D.R.E.A.M. Act, the Perry camp had this to say “Gov. Perry opposes amnesty and the federal D.R.E.A.M. Act. Washington must first secure the border before we can have any rational discussion about immigration reform. Once that is accomplished, then we can have a conversation about how to address immigration."
One has to wonder how this side step of the issue on the federal level will affect how Hispanic voters will see Perry; there is no way I can say with certainty. I know if I were a member of this community, I would think he has to move toward a stronger stance to make it through the primary process, and he will work on immigration reform once borders are closed and illegal immigration is down to a trickle like he has said. I do not see any reason that Perry cannot be seen as strong on immigration and passionate about giving children who are here at no fault of their own a chance at a better life. Perry has at least one Republican establishment voice that has come to his defense on this issue.
In an email to the National Journal, former Florida Governor Jeb Bush concurs with Gov. Perry, claiming in-state tuition for children of some illegal immigrants is a "fair policy." According to a statement from the National Journal, not only is Bush a supporter of this law, Floridian Sen. Marco Rubio is also a supporter of the law. This has to come as a surprise to many conservative and Tea Party members.
Listen to what Jeb Bush declares “If Bush and Rubio represent the future of the Republican Party, which is inevitably intertwined with winning favor in the fast-growing Hispanic community, then what does it mean when a rock-ribbed conservative like Perry can’t take a moderate stance on immigration? Perhaps no other issue bedevils the Republican Party as much.” Bush and several Hispanic Republicans have explicitly attempted to warn Republican candidates against making the in-state tuition policy a wedge issue, but this has not stopped Gov. Romney from possibly alienating the fastest growing portion of the electorate.
This has become a valuable weapon against the Texas governor in the primaries, but Perry has taken this issue and made it his own, and in my opinion, becoming the only person that can win an election against President Obama; and the argument has not even touched on Romney’s other general election problem.
“Perry’s Tuition Stance Makes Him the Only Electable Candidate”
Translation, 81% of the electorate are wrong.
*
Legal immigrants are time and time again the critical swing vote in any ballot measure that takes away privileges from illegal aliens. They are the most common tipsters for ICE, the ones most likely to turn in an illegal fugitive, and are almost always the primary victims from crimes committed by illegal invaders.
Anyone who falls for the stupid trap that you're hurting yourself with Hispanics when you do not support illegals deserves to lose.
The bigger issue is, does Perry want to mirror this in Federal policy? The answer had better be not just no, but hell no.
Yes, for the pro-taxpayer-funding-to-illegal-aliens crowd. Not exactly a big crowd.
This is pure bullshiite and should have come with a barf alert.
The majority of hispanics in the South West do not support ANY bennefits for illegals. They are sick and tired of being painted with the same brush as these invaders. The majority of hispanics in NM and AZ come from families that have been here since the South West was owned by Spain. They have no connection to Mexico, and they don’t want anything to do with that 3rd world hellhole to the south.
I know this as fact because I am one of these South Western hispanics.
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It would be nice to get solid proof of this. Hispanics, being a current affirmative action class, would be tempted to vote Democrat for that reason. Do they consider illegales enough of a threat to their well being to cross over and vote a Republican who promises to bring order to the border?
I remember ‘08. We lost w a squishy centrist.
I am against quoting Jeb Bush in support of Rick Perry.
Understood in it’s full context, Perry’s plans for finally controlling the border if elected President, make enough sense that they have been endorsed by Jim Gilchrist, founder of the Minutemen.
Go here for Gilchrist’s statement:
Rick Perry and the Republican Bind on Immigration
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/2786401/posts?page=13
Jeb Bush should just shut up. He doesn’t know what he’s talking about and should speak for himself, and no one argues effectively on Perry’s behalf by quoting Jeb.
Many Hispanics turn into white people (as if by magic, and given enough time).
That’ll be the day...
“The bigger issue is, does Perry want to mirror this in Federal policy? The answer had better be not just no, but hell no.”
He’s already answered that question by doubling-down on the issue and calling 81% of the country “heartless”.
What concerns me is that he MUST push for AMNESTY, in order for these college-educated adults to get a job.
He’s a re-run of Bush-43, except that holds us people who want enforcement, in CONTEMPT. Yea, that’s my man for the top job...LOL.
Sean...thank you for speaking up strong for those who became citizens the right way. Thank you! I welcome you wholeheartedly....and any who come here thru our established laws of immigration.
Thank you for speaking out against those who are lawbreakers and expect to be treated with kid gloves. You and others like you are what America is about. LAw abiding and an asset to our country. Thank you again!
“has Perry positioned himself to siphon Hispanic votes away from Obama?”
If Ricardo is running for President of Meh-hee-coh, just possibly he has so positioned himself. If for the USA, for every vote he picks up from Hispanic pandering he’ll lose 10 conservative votes.
Not a good trade off.
“Vote for Perry”????????
Never!
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