Skip to comments.It Is 1931. We Are Austria. If The Fed Doesn't Save Us Here Comes Another Great Depression...
Posted on 11/09/2011 3:27:31 PM PST by blam
DELONG: It Is 1931. We Are Austria. If The Fed Doesn't Save Us Here Comes Another Great Depression...
Nov. 9, 2011, 5:21 PM
How does Berkeley professor Brad Delong feel about what's going on in Europe?
He's freaking out:
Time to Spread Foam on the Runway: The Federal Reserve Needs to Act Now to Firewall Off the Eurocrisis
I have been complaining for some time now that Reinhart and Rogoff think that the time is always 1931 and that we are always Austria--that the great fiscal crisis is about to erupt and send us lurching down toward Great Depression II.
Well, right now guess what?
The time is 1931, and we are Austria.
The Federal Reserve needs to buy up every single European bond owned by every single American financial institution for cash before the increase in eurorisk leads American finance to tighten credit again and send us down into the double dip. The Federal Reserve Needs to do so now.
Professor Delong cites professor Paul Krugman, who is also freaking out:
This is the way the euro ends.
Not with a bang but with bunga-bunga.
Seriously, with Italian 10-years now well above 7 percent, were now in territory where all the vicious circles get into gear and European leaders seem like deer caught in the headlights. And as Martin Wolf says today, the unthinkable a euro breakup has become all too thinkable:
A eurozone built on one-sided deflationary adjustment will fail. That seems certain. If the leaders of the eurozone insist on that policy, they will have to accept the result.
Every even halfway plausible route to euro salvation now depends on a radical change in policy by the European Central Bank. Yet as John Quiggin says in todays Times
(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...
No government ever pays it’s debts.They use inflation instead.
Fight for the USA in the currency and trade war. Or go ahead, and take the anti-American way to default. Either way is fine with me. And Europe...Europe...toss Europe—especially mobbed-up southern Europe.
Dr Marc Faber agrees:
"Before they go bankrupt theyll print money. Theyll print endless money. As long as we have Ben Bernanke and Janet Yellin at the Fed theyll print money and so they can postpone the end game endlessly
Endlessly not, but say for another five to ten years."
At the end of those five or ten years,the abyss awaits....
It won't be that long, IMO.
Good grief, blam. Henry and his comrades are Obammy fascists.
He’s a criminal nailed for inside trading. He roots for the collapse of the economy because this best serves the “progress” of the revolution.
His ideal of a revolution is not something that we ever want to see on American soil.
Same with all the other Wall Street global commies who prop up the DNC radicals and shake down our treasury.
Good Grief, Sara!!
This will all be corrected during the coming revolution.
AND...If you don't think we're headed for a revolution.....
My O My.
“Inflation, it’s the real flat tax.”
I’ve always thought of it as “regressive”, it strikes hardest at those who spend most of their income at retail and don’t have money to invest in inflation hedges. Am I missing something?
We’re still on track.
Only an Ivy League graduate would be stupid enough to believe that the banking problems in Austria in 1931 led the world into the Great Depression.
Everyone overlooks and forgets the role of war reparations from WWI in causing the Depression and sovereign currency/banking problems.
it sure seems like the first Great Depression was deliberatly caused
dont know for sure just sayin'
and it sure seems like this one is being purposely caused too,
when the loans dry up for "Mom and Pops" but the Big Box cronies get bailouts,
the moneylenders keep throwing it out until it causes a bubble and then stop the music and pull it back, and the little guys are left without a chair when the music stops,
when the average worker is a slave to debt and the music stops and he's left without a job,
then the socialist slave owner politicians rush in to save the day and tighten the yoke and turn up the Marxism another notch ,
and the average citizen will crawl to the soup line to desperatly cash in his liberty for another cup of socialism tea
“I wanted a ballerina Barbie, and all I got was a Klaus Barbie!” - Debbie
Actually started with U.S. immigration restriction (1921 and/or 1924), 10/1 leverage by common people on Wall Street, Prohibition (gangsters didn't put much faith in banks, which contracted the money supply), war reparations (kept Germany from rebuilding and foreign trade).
But the biggest were over-leverage and Prohibition in the U.S., and leverage and Germany in Europe.
Whew. Okay, nothing to worry about then.
Things to do today;
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Yes, but just a little. Inflation hits the elderly, who may depend on fixed dollar pensions, because they have little to no earning power. Right now, financial pain is inevitable for the elderly.
When a state gets really strapped for money, the state employees also suffer. Example: in Russia, many trained M.D.s are hair stylists, because M.D. in Russia is a government job. Lifespan for Russian males is 59 years, 20 years after the fall of the Soviet Union.
This may appear either in the form of hyperinflation, or as massive cuts in spending. In the U.S. government retirement spending (Social Security, Medicare, some Medicaid, plus federal contributions to military and federal employee retirement) would have to be cut by about 45% immediately to get us back to the situation in 1983 - after the Reagan Social Security fix. The longer Congress waits to fix this, the fewer retirement benefits can be paid in the future.
But, to quote an author from a previous generation: "It doesn't matter if hamburger is 50 cents a pound or $5 a pound, as long as there is enough hamburger."
Of course, it does matter if you can't afford to buy hamburger, but the obvious truth is that when the farmers don't make enough money to stay solvent, the grocery stores run out. And if enough people go three days without food, they will riot. In the average city, kitchens have about six days of food, with another six at the stores. So figure 9-10 days without food deliveries or food stamps before riots begin.