Skip to comments.Will Republicans Blow It? (Thomas Sowell)
Posted on 11/14/2011 12:58:56 PM PST by jazusamo
Justice Oliver Wendell Holmes said that a good catch phrase could stop thinking for 50 years. One of the often-repeated catch phrases of our time "It's the economy, stupid!" has already stopped thinking in some quarters for a couple of decades.
There is no question that the state of the economy can affect elections. But there is also no iron law that all elections will be decided by the state of the economy.
President Franklin D. Roosevelt was re-elected for an unprecedented third term after two terms in which unemployment was in double digits for eight consecutive years.
We may lament the number of people who are unemployed or who are on food stamps today. But those who give the Obama administration credit for coming to their rescue when they didn't have a job are likely to greatly outnumber those who blame the administration for their not having a job in the first place.
An expansion of the welfare state in hard times seems to have been the secret of FDR's great political success in the midst of economic disaster. An economic study published in a scholarly journal in 2004 concluded that the Roosevelt administration's policies prolonged the Great Depression by several years. But few people read economic studies.
This economy has been sputtering along through most of the Obama administration, with the unemployment rate hovering around 9 percent. But none of that means that Barack Obama is going to lose the 2012 election.
Even polls which show "any Republican" with more public support than Obama does not mean that Obama will lose.
The president is not going to run against "any Republican." He is going to run against some specific Republican, and that Republican can expect to be attacked, denounced and denigrated for months on end before the November 2012 elections not only by the Democrats, but also by the media that is heavily pro-Democrat.
We have already seen how unsubstantiated allegations from women with questionable histories have dropped Herman Cain from front runner to third place in just a couple of weeks.
In short, it takes a candidate to beat a candidate, and everything depends on what kind of candidate that is.
The smart money inside the Beltway says that the Republicans need to pick a moderate candidate who can appeal to independent voters, not just to the conservative voters who turn out to vote in Republican primaries. Those who think this way say that you have to "reach out" to Hispanics, the elderly and other constituencies.
What is remarkable is how seldom the smart money folks look at what has actually been happening in presidential elections.
Ronald Reagan won two landslide elections when he ran as Ronald Reagan. Vice President George H.W. Bush then won when he ran as if he were another Ronald Reagan, with his famous statement, "Read my lips, no new taxes."
But after Bush 41 was elected and turned "kinder and gentler" to everyone except the taxpayers he lost to an unknown governor from a small state.
Other Republican presidential candidates who went the "moderate" route Bob Dole and John McCain also came across as neither fish nor fowl, and also went down to defeat.
Now the smart money inside the Beltway is saying that Mitt Romney, who is nothing if not versatile in his positions, is the Republicans' best hope for replacing Obama.
If conservative Republicans split their votes among a number of conservative candidates in the primaries, that can mean ending up with a presidential candidate in the Bob Dole-John McCain mold and risking a Bob Dole-John McCain result in the next election.
The question now is whether the conservative Republican candidates who have enjoyed their successive and short-lived boomlets Michele Bachmann, Rick Perry and Herman Cain are prepared to stay in the primary race to the bitter end, or whether their conservative principles will move them to withdraw and throw their support to another conservative candidate.
There has probably never been a time in the history of this country when we more urgently needed to get a president out of the White House, before he ruined the country. But will the conservative Republican candidates let that guide them?
Conservatives AND Republicans are going to blow this big time!
There’s a good chance they will.
Any way we can send all the RINOs to the sun?
Then, we might have a chance.
If Thomas Sowell and Walt Williams were to run for Pres and VP on the same ticket (I don’t care which one takes the top spot) I would happily and proudly vote for them.
Send the Libs to the sun first - then RINOs.
Sowell forgets one very important thing: The Tea Party movement. Either the GOP will embrace it, or the GOP will fall by the wayside as Conservatives tire of being told we have to have moderate Republicans.
It will be interesting to see the responses to this post. If the vast majority thinks they will blow it...
Then we have to ask ourselves...
What the hell are we waiting around for?
Why choose either when A is merely the other side the same coin B is on?
Really lost a lot of stature with this one Dr Sowell
I admire an elegant turn of phrase.
Which would be criminal.
That was beautiful and couldn’t be any more true.
All have been severely damaged, and before the first primary vote has been cast!
Unity? Heck no!
Bachmann has been painted as “way out there and gaffe prone.”
Perry as dumber than dirt and worse.
Cain as a serial sexual harasser, all unfounded of course.
PAGING GOVERNOR SARAH PALIN!
Oh, now you're judging Thomas Sowell...that's rich.
PAGING GOVERNOR SARAH PALIN!She's coming in, alright.
But not as a candidate.
As a king-maker and a unifier, and I for one am going to be listening closely to what she says.
Well said, onyx.
As conservatives we have to come together and the time is getting short.
Sarah Palin could help do that!
The question now is whether the conservative Republican candidates who have enjoyed their successive and short-lived boomlets Michele Bachmann, Rick Perry and
Herman CainNewt Gingrich are prepared to stay in the primary race to the bitter end, or whether their conservative principles will move them to withdraw and throw their support to another conservative candidate.
I usually agree with Sowell, but I disagree with his point that Cain’s surge is over.
Cain is still leading in key states: IA, FL, SC, as well as NC ,TN, OH, SD, NE, PA, ME, WV, VA, GA, TX, AZ, HI, WI, IL.
It is WAY too early to count him out.
blow it? yes, of course. without question
there is only one way to keep progressives out of the WH in 2012
I think he’s a hell of a lot smarter than you. People pay him to learn his opinion. Your opinion just pisses most people off.
The GOP now controls the House, will retake the Senate and controls most State Governments.
Such was not the case in 1932-44.
When the GOP made a strong comeback in the Congressional elections in 1938, unseating many New Dealers, the New Deal was over and FDR switched to foreign policy.
The War kept FDR in power after that.
Republicans are like the Texas Rangers, they’ll blow it when they are one strike away from winning it all.
“PAGING GOVERNOR SARAH PALIN!”
Would that it was possible!
Obama is no FDR.That's true.
And the "silent majority" is smarter this time around.
Regarding Herman, the trend is not his friend. I, for one, find him a little slow on his feet. Sort of the anti-Gingrich, if you will.
This task is too important for someone who still has plenty of on-the-job training ahead of him.
Where is Palin on these ridiculous charges against Cain?
You are 100% correct. The Tea Party is the genesis of a new American Conservative Party if the RINOS are stupid enough to stick it to us just one more time.
I haven’t heard that she’s said anything but I wish she’d step forward and support him on what I consider false charges.
The question should be asked of the Blue state liberal lemmings in Ohio, Mich, Minn.etal if they still want to stick with a failed socialist liberal secularist who is a wuss on free enterprise, jobs, energy , borders and beating the Islamofasicsts. It is not Pubs unless they continue to elect RINOS for their nominees. It seems that with Indies, TEAS,maybe Libertarians and Reagan Dems once more not wanting a repeat of Obamaism, perhaps the GOP will unite and select a good duo of conservs who are tough minded with real solutions. Whoa, that sounds like Newt and a Perry or Bolton,or even Jeb Bush ticket. Hmmm.
Okay here is the trend:
In Iowa, Cain has gone from being behind behind Romney by 3 points in a CNN/Time Poll taken 10/20 - 10/25 to being ahead by 4 points in an Insider Advantage Poll taken 11/8.
In Florida, Cain has gone from being behind behind Romney by 12 points in a CNN/Time Poll taken 10/20 - 10/25 to being ahead by 6 points in Rasmussen Reports poll conducted 11/8 - 11/8.
In South Carolina, Cain has gone from being behind behind Romney by 2 points in a CNN/Time Poll taken 10/20 - 10/25 and behind 2 points in a Clemson poll taken 10/27 - 11/7 to being ahead by 7 points in an Insider Advantage Poll taken 11/8.
In Ohio, Cain has increased his lead from 5 points over Romney in a Quinnipiac poll taken 10/31 - 11/7 to a 14 point lead over Romney taken 11/4- 11/6.
Then you’d just have to deal with the Glen Rice story. Can’t believe the ugliness of politics.
I doubt it.
I just want to know who in the world he's talking about as the "other" conservative candidate?
Does she personally know him?
How can she vouch for him?
Where were all the people when she was 24/7 - 365 attacks?
The Tuscon shootings, just for one example? *Crickets*
Oh gosh! I hope she doesn’t endorse!
Do you really want her to endorse?
One needs to take charge and the rest who have no chance, need to step aside for the cause of taking Obama out of office. The problem with that is, none of them seem willing to get together to pick our best candidate.
Yes. I want her to make an endorsement.
Not right now, but when the time is right.
The time is not right.
But at some point, we need to rally round a candidate and Sarah Palin will be a big help in getting us to do that.
“I havent heard that shes said anything but I wish shed step forward and support him on what I consider false charges.”
It is not her fight. It is his fight. Winning it on his own will say something about him. Unless we can get a candidate who can fight, we are all wasting our time . . . again.
Just for the heck of it; why don’t we run a conservative candidate? What a great idea.
The definition of a progressive socialist is a voter who doesn't care if his standard of living goes down if everybody else’s standard of living goes down, too.
Is a Bear Catholic? We’ve been snatching defeat from the jaws of victory for how long now???
I want to disagree with how you read the article. I did not hear Sowell say that everyone should step aside for Romney. He said that the conservatives are going to lose to Romeny by virtue of splitting up their primary votes.
He then calls on the conservatives in the race to get their act together early and drop out while throwing their support to just one conservative candidate. He did not name which candidate should remain.
As Iowa approaches, and especially New Hampshire, the conservatives better do as he suggests. Otherwise, we’re stuck with Romney because we were stupid.
Obama is the one who is blowing it big time. We should take nothing for granted, but this is the Reps race to lose. Obama’s economy and policies will doom him.
Well Newt is not conservative, he is a moderate.
Newt has not been in the succession of the “successive and short lived boomlets” that Thomas Sowell then listed in chronological order.
Do you know what successive means?
If it can be blown, they will.
In the end Obama will lose.Obama and Axelrod are spending millions trying to distort and confuse and divide and conquer.Little do they know in the end Obama will lose.