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Obama Could Win if GOP Blocks Payroll Tax Cut
The Fiscal Times ^ | 12/2/11 | Bruce Bartlett

Posted on 12/02/2011 8:14:22 AM PST by Retro Llama

A year ago, the Bush tax cuts were set to expire. Barack Obama insisted that only those for people making less than $250,000 per year should be extended. Even though Democrats still controlled both the House and Senate, Republicans had enough clout to delay action until the last minute. At that point, they held all the high cards because they knew that Obama couldn't risk a large de facto tax increase on every taxpayer at a time when the economy was weak. He caved and agreed to extension of all the Bush tax cuts, including those for the rich.

Today the situation is largely reversed. The temporary cut in the Social Security payroll tax is due to expire at year's end, but this time Obama holds the better hand. Republicans are lukewarm to extending the payroll tax cut, but are caving to public pressure to extend it. Also, Republicans have never articulated a coherent reason for opposing extension of the payroll tax cut. But they insist that the tax cut be paid for—something they have never demanded for any Republican-sponsored tax cut that I am aware of....

Republicans respond that it would be folly to raise taxes on the "job creators." But the idea that all rich people are job creators merely by virtue of being rich is complete nonsense. According to the Tax Policy Center, only about 3 percent of people reporting business income are in the top two tax brackets, and according to the Treasury Department, only one fifth of small businesses have any employees at all.

....Moreover, there is no evidence that the tax cuts of the George W. Bush administration created any jobs, so even if they were fully repealed there is no reason to think any jobs would be lost....

(Excerpt) Read more at thefiscaltimes.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Constitution/Conservatism; Government; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2012; 2012election; payrolltax; taxes
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1 posted on 12/02/2011 8:14:31 AM PST by Retro Llama
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To: Retro Llama

Obama could win, just by looking at his potential opponents.


2 posted on 12/02/2011 8:16:00 AM PST by stuartcr ("Everything happens as God wants it to...otherwise, things would be different.")
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To: Retro Llama

Is this really a payroll tax cut?


3 posted on 12/02/2011 8:18:00 AM PST by frogjerk (OBAMA NOV 2012 = HORSEMEAT)
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To: Retro Llama
It is always possible that he could win but it would have little to nothing to do with this.

I put his chances of reelection at less than 25%.

Reelections of incumbents are all about the incumbent. His record will be a difficult thing to run on.

4 posted on 12/02/2011 8:18:28 AM PST by NeilGus
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To: Retro Llama

Obama could win, just by looking at his potential opponents.


5 posted on 12/02/2011 8:20:16 AM PST by stuartcr ("Everything happens as God wants it to...otherwise, things would be different.")
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To: Retro Llama
Republicans respond that it would be folly to raise taxes on the "job creators." But the idea that all rich people are job creators merely by virtue of being rich is complete nonsense.

The ignorance of some people knows no bounds.

Does capital in the hands of the public, or taxes in the hands of the government produce more self-sustaining jobs? It's one or the other brain-trusts.

At what point would taxes be enough? Was it enough when payroll deductions were created for the first time, at roughly 2%? Was it enough at 5%? Was it enough at 10, 15, 20, 25, or 30%? Is it enough today? The Left says no.

I state right here and now that the federal government and the Left will never be happy until they get all all capital, and dole it out to us as they see fit.

I say, draw the line in the sand now. Enough is enough. Not one red cent more you Lefty assholes.

I'm not buying off on them dividing us by income level, and attack us separately. We stand together!

6 posted on 12/02/2011 8:26:14 AM PST by DoughtyOne (Romney, Newt, any chance whatsoever you might sometime pander to U.S. Citizens vs the illegals?)
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To: Retro Llama

Tax the currently untaxed.


7 posted on 12/02/2011 8:28:01 AM PST by Paladin2
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To: Paladin2

LOL. You can’t get money from people who don’t have it.


8 posted on 12/02/2011 8:29:05 AM PST by Retro Llama
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To: Retro Llama
Obummer gonna win no matter what takes place. America has tipped over starting in earnest in 2006.
9 posted on 12/02/2011 8:29:40 AM PST by Cheerio (Barry Hussein Soetoro-0bama=The Complete Destruction of American Capitalism)
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To: NeilGus

Reelections of incumbents are all about the incumbent. His record will be a difficult thing to run on.
________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________He’s not running on his record. He might win becase:

#1. He will have a $Billion warchest and

#2. The backing of:

A. The Chicago Thug-style politcal machine.
B. 95 percent of the Black vote
C. The Unions
D. The Gays
E. The Media
F. Hollywood
G. Environmentalist wackos and
H. Every American who has the IQ of a can of Spam

It will be a very nasty and close election.


10 posted on 12/02/2011 8:29:40 AM PST by no dems (Why do you never see "Obama" bumper stickers on cars going to work in the morning?)
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To: Retro Llama; ding_dong_daddy_from_dumas; stephenjohnbanker; DoughtyOne; calcowgirl; Gilbo_3; ...
I saw this at yahoo:

But to many conservatives, the president’s proposed new payroll tax holiday is not a net tax cut, because it requires the US Treasury to make up for the shortfall in payroll tax revenue to the Social Security Trust funds by transferring general funds there. Those general funds would have to be supplied by borrowing or, in the president's plan, tax hikes on the rich.
“It’s not a tax cut, and it threatens the integrity of Social Security,” says Sen. Jeff Sessions of Alabama, the top Republican on the Senate Budget Committee.
He notes that, by the Democrats’ own figures, it will take 10 years for the surtax on the wealthy to recoup lost revenues from Obama’s one-year extension and expansion of the payroll tax holiday. That means borrowing to cover the shortfall in the meantime.

Payroll tax cut: why Republicans might back Obama’s plan (VIDEO)yahoo News

Obama is proposing paying for a one year FICA/SS taxcut with a 10 year surcharge on the rich. You dont hear them talking about that minor detail.

11 posted on 12/02/2011 8:30:26 AM PST by sickoflibs (Cain :"My parents didn't raise me to beg the government for other peoples money")
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To: stuartcr

See my tag-line


12 posted on 12/02/2011 8:31:37 AM PST by Ingtar (Newt (four more for Obama) & Mitt (Obamacare) - what wonderful choices!)
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To: Retro Llama

Rich people are job creators every time they invest in a business directly or via buying stock. They need not be directly hiring people in order to be creating jobs.


13 posted on 12/02/2011 8:33:18 AM PST by allmendream (Tea Party did not send the GOP to D.C. to negotiate the terms of our surrender to socialism.)
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To: Retro Llama

This payroll “tax cut” is a joke ...as if a business would just go out an hire someone for a $1500 break in the payroll tax. For a laugh go to the White House web site for an explanation of how this will create jobs. The idiots in the White House do not understand that in hiring someone you are expecting that their work will generate new revenues that more than cover the cost of their salary, benefits, their part of the business overhead as well as a portion of your profit. The GOP is right to say this is nonsense, but just go along with it so Obama doesn’t have new ammunition to say Republicans are anti-tax cuts for workers. Barry’s tax cut won’t create any jobs and will just cause Social Security to go bankrupt a little quicker.


14 posted on 12/02/2011 8:34:32 AM PST by The Great RJ ("The problem with socialism is that pretty soon you run out of other people's money" M. Thatcher)
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To: The Great RJ

Ultimately, all job creation is based on demand — businesses hire people to create the goods and services people buy. Putting more money in people’s pockets to spend is the root pump-primer.


15 posted on 12/02/2011 8:37:29 AM PST by Retro Llama
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To: no dems

I certainly understand that the election is not over but...

1. Money does not win elections. In O’s case, he will use the money to attack his opponent but he is still stuck with his record.

2. Dems have had the backing of all of those groups for my lifetime and in the last election (their high water mark since 1964) they only received 52-53% of the vote. Clinton never exceeded 50%.

Even those with the intelligence of a can of spam understand that they cannot get a job.


16 posted on 12/02/2011 8:37:29 AM PST by NeilGus (He ha)
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To: stuartcr

GOP come next November “As God is my witness, I thought turkeys could fly!”.


17 posted on 12/02/2011 8:40:21 AM PST by allmendream (Tea Party did not send the GOP to D.C. to negotiate the terms of our surrender to socialism.)
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To: Retro Llama
In defense of the republicans in the Senate, abc reported this morning that the republicans put a bill forward that would have cut spending to cover this social security tax cut... but instead of keeping it at 4.5% it would have dropped it to 2%. Of course... only wanting to block any legislation from passing...so that they can run against the stupid ass republicans that are too dumb to see this tactic and too stupid to go out in front of cameras and mics to inform Americans what these rat bastard evilcrats are doing... the dims voted it down and the republicans remain mute... crickets nada... zero! Someone tell me when this nightmare ends please!?

LLS

18 posted on 12/02/2011 8:40:21 AM PST by LibLieSlayer ("Americans are hungry to feel once again a sense of mission and greatness." Ronaldo Magnus)
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To: Retro Llama

You can get labor. The rest of us are effectively slaves working part time for the gov’t.


19 posted on 12/02/2011 8:41:17 AM PST by Paladin2
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To: Paladin2; Retro Llama

Tax welfare, food stamps, etc


20 posted on 12/02/2011 8:43:36 AM PST by goodnesswins (Bad planning on your part does not constitute an emergency on mine....)
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