GOP Ballot Tracking, Among Republican Registered Voters (Romney 26, Gingrich 24, Paul 11.)

Gallup ^ | 12/30/11 | Gallup

[BCrago66]

Romney 26, Gingrich 24, Paul 11.

[ez]

If he had simply written “the evangelicals are hurting us by their votes”....that is an opinion properly expressed. However, the term “screwing” is just a toned down version of they are “f**king us”(which is profanity and not allowed).

You have a point here. I was a witness to the thread, and the poster was getting a bit "emotional."

Having been raised Catholic, I am sensitive to anti-Christian and anti-Jewish bias, and having some time spent in Catholic schools, I expect it to get worse before it gets better. :(

Have a Happy New Year.

[Crichton]

Gingrich has dropped from a high of 37% to 24% over the last three weeks and is headed for the teens.

Santorum has now hit 5% nationally and will likely spike into double digits following his finish in Iowa.

It took three weeks for Newt to crash from 1st place in Iowa to 5th.

Any bets on when their national poll standing will cross? After Iowa? After NH? After SC?

[Twotone]

I wonder if this has anything to do with Rush Limbaugh’s interview with Greta yesterday on Fox. He sounded like he was for Gingrich - at least over Romney. I was expecting Newt’s numbers to continue to tank, but it looks like he’s picking back up.

[Blood of Tyrants]

In other words 74% of the people want someone other than Romney.

[maine-iac7]

the present traitor in chief pays no attention to the Constitution or to Congress - he’s writing his own laws over Congress - have you not been paying attention?

[County Agent Hank Kimball]

I saw a poll many months ago that said 20% of the population will never voter for a Mormon.....3/4 of that 20% describes itself as conservative.....do the Math. He cannot win.

I won’t vote for him either..though not for that reason. I just distrust and despise him. I’ll vote 3rd party.

Hank

[County Agent Hank Kimball]

Well, let’s see....

In the tracking poll done between 12/14 and 12/19, Newt was at 25% and Santorum was at 4%.

In the tracking poll done between 12/23 and 12/29, Newt was at 24% and Santorum was at 5%.

So if you want to do a linear extrapolation of the vaunted Santorum surge and alleged Newt decline, and say old Rick will continue to pick up a point every 2 weeks while Newt loses a point, Santorum will catch him in April.

The real answer though, to your question of when Newt’s and Santorum’s lines cross would be never. Newt’s inevitable national setback stopped about 2 weeks ago. His problems in Iowa are all due to an onslaught of negative ads he couldn’t counter.

BUT....here’s the good news. Newt raked in $10 million this quarter and has a super PAC working for him. He’s leading in SC - the really important state historically - and is very well organized there.

Newt won’t be a punching bag going forward. He’s taken all Paul, Myth and the others can throw at him. Now that he can respond it’ll be game on!

Hank

[KTM rider]

More importantly IMHO, what Rush said about the "Republican Insiders" pushing their Romney and on us, knowing full well that their constituents, the Republican voters do not want Romney any more than they want Obama

but their strategy is that Romney will appeal to the "precious independents" which is more important to them than the conservative vote.

Which is fatally flawed strategy, and the root of the problem is that the Republican Insiders are not conservatives at all

[Crichton]

He’s leading in SC - the really important state historically - and is very well organized there.

Newt is leading in SC? Really? I know he USED to be leading there, but the last SC poll was published 2 weeks ago, and in that time he's been dropping like a rock.

How do you think expected poor finishes in Iowa and New Hampshire will affect Newt's numbers in SC?

[Forty-Niner]

“She owes Romney nothing/”

Yes she does.

Sarah’s difficulties during the 2008 campaign were a result of former Romney, then McCain, staffers that intentionally tried to sabatoge Palin, and through her McCain.

The scars on her back are reminders that she owes Romney big time!

and payback can be a real Beotch......

[Forty-Niner]

“...but why waste the time.”

....because the down ticket elections are just as important to the well-being of our states and nation.....

[County Agent Hank Kimball]

You missed the point..... In the past 2 weeks he has NOT been dropping like a rock. Look at the Gallup tracking poll.....he’s flat nationally in that time...only dropping in Iowa because of $10 million in ads he couldn’t answer. But now he has the $ to answer and ATTACK in SC.

I see him basically skipping NH for the most part and focusing on SC.

Hank

[Caipirabob]

Remember, among “registered Republicans”, which excludes that 30% independents who dropped out BECAUSE of RINOS and the GOP Carl Rove elite. The dirty little secret keeps on getting buried. But hopefully it will be a big surprise next Tuesday. GO NEWT!

There are a large number of us conservative independents. In Arizona you can register as an Independent and request ballots for the GOP candidates. Since they keep open primaries to keep mccain types in power, there's no penalty to stop being affiliated with them.

I dropped out after 2008 with the mccain fiasco. I was done then and won't be taken in by the romney rino BS. I have no ties to the GOP any more, they are simply a vehicle to used used to promote conservatism as it suits me. They can blow it out their collective tail after the crap they pulled the past few years.

[LomanBill]

If you have some magical solution for this insanity

 

No need for magic...

 

...and finally, that truth is great and will prevail if left to herself, that she is the proper and sufficient antagonist to error, and has nothing to fear from the conflict, unless by human interposition disarmed of her natural weapons, free argument and debate, errors ceasing to be dangerous when it is permitted freely to contradict them....

--Thomas Jefferson

http://religiousfreedom.lib.virginia.edu/sacred/vaact.html

 

What's required is free argument and debate intent upon manifesting constrained governance rooted in self-evident truth.

 

What we have, instead, is politically correct horse manure contrived by Useful Idiots and manipulators who pretend that wearing a pink/purple shirt on Thursday will somehow "magically" turn the systemically corrupt amoral cluster frock they've created into an orderly system of moral governance that limits itself to securing the inalienable rights of the governed.

[Maelstorm]

If you notice the percentile shift has never been from Romney getting stronger support. I believe he and Paul have both reached their Nomination Maximums. After Iowa I think at least one candidate will drop out. If the weakest candidate doesn’t they should be drummed from the race. I personally think Bachmann is gone after Iowa. She had promise but I really think the story about her shooting low for a Romney VP nod was probably true because it explains so much concerning her debate performances.

[Future Useless Eater]

Things are evening out again between the 2 front-runners. So what yesterday speculatively looked like a national mini-surge for Romney, is not to be.

Yes, and Gallup is definately in the sack for Romney based on their articles. Plus, once before, on Dec 15th, they suspended their reporting on a day when I think Newt did unusually well, and it would have trashed their narrative to use that days data.

Today, Gallup announced they have suspended all reporting until Tuesday January 2nd. They must have HAD data from the 30th to report, but the 29th's data suggested Newt was recovering, so it is a good bet (along with Gallup's suspension) that the data from the 30th would have been even better for Newt.

So then the numbers in this story from the 29th is the LAST Gallup data we will see for quite some time. I have updated my weighted 4-poll rolling average chart accordingly.
.

with final Gallup Tracking data for 2011 added ...

Weighted 4-Poll Rolling Averages of the latest
20+ Polls listed at RCP [as of Dec 31st]
plus
YouGov polls 12/17, 12/10, 12/3, 11/26 11/19, 11/12, 11/5, 10/29, 10/22, 10/15, 10/08,
& Poll Position 12/11, 12/04, 11/27, 11/22, 11/8, 11/1 polls inserted chronologically

(Example methodology for this chart will be on my profile page)


Much like what the government does with unemployment statistics, this chart represents a 4-poll "rolling average" for the latest 20+ polls listed at RealClearPolitics.com (plus other recent national polls).

I also weighted the polls by their size. For example, a poll with a survey size of 1000 was weighted proportionately heavier than an 324 survey size.



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[Caipirabob]

I effin' hate ORamney with a passion and despise the thought he is even going to Iowa but you lost me there...More damage? Really?

This quote has been floated around FR regarding SnippyMcMittCare romney, and for good reason:

"If we must have an enemy at the head of Government, let it be one whom we can oppose, and for whom we are not responsible, who will not involve our party in the disgrace of his foolish and bad measures." - Alexander Hamilton

This one's for free:

"I'm not Irish, but the people who carry me home are" - Caipirabob ; )

[Patton@Bastogne]

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EXCELLENT !
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EXCELLENT !




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[InterceptPoint]

I’m looking for that Santorum surge and he doesn’t even qualify for his own color. ;-)

Very nice job on the plots. Much appreciated.

[COgamer]

“A VERY LARGE contingent of Christian conservatives WILL NEVER vote for Mitt Romney.”

Or Newt for that matter. The GOP cannot afford to just toss values voters aside.