Posted on 01/10/2012 1:00:04 PM PST by Maceman
ROMNEY: 37%
PAUL: 26%
HUNTSMAN: 21%
GINGRICH: 11%
PERRY: 9%
BACHMAN: 0%
SANTORUM: 0%
That would put the total delegates as follows if the Iowa numbers are right.
Romney 13
Paul 9
Santorum 6
Newt 4
Perry 3
This is not much of a blowout for Mittens so far. This is far from locked up.
Great post. Putting it on facebook.
Thanks for that info.
To correct my earlier post.. with 1,144 needed to win.. Romney currently has 13 delegates after Iowa and New Hampshire.
The media hype is that much more laughable.. someone call me when this thing actually starts.
(from Post 72 in the Thread 90 minutes before the polls closed. Got Santorum’s total in Belknap by 1 vote. Got Newt’s total in Hillsborough by 2 votes, Santorum’s total by 11 votes, and Perry’s vote in Belknap by 17 votes. Still haven’t figured out Paul, and overcompensated Romney, and was off on the Huntsman numbers. But not bad predictions in regards to Newt and Santorum. If I had known I’d be that accurate, I would have “found” more votes for them. On to SC!
I didn’t look at Londonderry. Only the townships in Belknap and Hillsborough County. Those totals were:
Belknap 94% IN
Projected Romney - 6,536 45.20%
Actual Romney - 4,993
Projected Huntsman - 2,647 18.31%
Actual Huntsman - 1,831
Projected Paul - 2,605 18.02%
Actual Paul - 2,994
Projected Gingrich- 1,323 - 9.15%
Actual Gingrich - 1,185
Projected Santorum - 1,209 - 8.36%
Actual Santorum - 1,210
Projected Perry - 139 - 0.36%
Actual Perry - 122
Hillsborough 98% IN
Projected Romney - 38,304 46.81%
Actual Romney - 29,483
Projected Huntsman - 14,780 18.07%
Actual Huntsman - 11,310
Projected Paul - 14,729 18.00%
Actual Paul - 16,042
Projected Gingrich - 6,639 8.11%
Actual Gingrich - 6,641
Projected Santorum - 6,440 7.87%
Actual Santorum - 6,450
Projected Perry - 920 1.12%
Actual Perry - 467
Sounds good. Just correct my factoid #2. Romney doesn’t even have 20 delegates yet out of the 1,144 delegates needed to win.
Have a good night.
Huntsman is taking votes that are basically Romney’s anyway...he is in it to play with his money and maybe get a cabinet spot in the coming administration.
Time to stop betting on losers boys....look what you are going to end up with two Obama’s running against each other neither of them conservative, neither of them Christian ...a muslim and mormon. Brilliant play boys!
swhat do you have for SC as of now?
That would give Romney six delegates, Paul 3.5 and Huntsmann 2.5 if divided proportionally. When does the NH GOP announce the delegate results?
I won’t be running the model for the 46 counties there until the 20th that way I have all the updated information.
However, based on the current situation.
I project Santorum will get 80% of 08 Huck, 25% of Fred, and whatever vote of Duncan Hunter
I project Perry gets 5% of Huck and 5% of Fred, and about 1% of McCain consisting mostly of military retirees
I project Gingrich gets 15% of Huck, 70% of Fred, and about 30% of McCain
Assuming Huntsman stays in, he gets 50% of Rudy’s total, and 4% of McCain’s total.
Romney ends up with whatever he got from 08, 65% of McCain votes, and 50% of Rudy’s total. If Huntsman drops off, Romney gains most if not all of Rudy’s support and the additional 4% of McCain’s totals.
Ron Paul gets his totals from 2008, plus whatever increase there is in the county for new voters.
Based on these projections...not good. Romney would win a large enough majority in the modern areas to offset the more conservative areas. Between now and the 21st, Newt needs to work to regain 45-50% of the McCain voters. As of right now, he and Santorum are locked in a close battle for second. Newt could pull a larger share of the Evangelicals than 15%, but doing so won’t get him closer to Romney. He has to go after the McCain voters. Doing this will allow him to compete in first, while at the same time push Romney down to as low as 3rd.
I am well aware of JR/FR’s anti Romney/Paul philosophy.<\ p>
All I asked was: considering this mindset, perhaps one should/would wonder not why he/she considered the postings low. <\p>Have you thought that perhaps the number of people who feel this way is not as many as some of you think.
Hillsborough is now 100% IN. Not as accurate as with 98% IN. Oh well.
Actual Romney: 30,893
Actual Paul: 16,980
Actual Huntsman: 11,824
Actual Gingrich: 7,043
Actual Santorum: 6,842
Actual Perry: 508
Interesting.
What happens if you assume that Santorum gets 80 percent of Huckabee + 70 percent of Fred?
What’s the breakpoint of Fred voters that Santorum needs to carry a win?
Iowa and NH never decide anything predictably. SC is the money state and that is where we can make some real observations about the field and who needs to get out before FL. Why in the world anyone cares about a state with a caucus and a state that has an open Primary with very loose residency requirements to have any say in selecting our nominee is beyond me. This is all an aberration for the Lamestream to fill copious hours of otherwise dead air time.
My bet is that by the end of the week, all eyes will be on SC and NH will be totally forgotten. Mittens win there was expected and changes nothing.
If you do that, you make it all but certain that nobody can win a major party nomination for president who does not have hundreds of millions of dollars in his/her account for a primary campaign that begins about two years before the general election.
I fully grant that our current system is far from perfect. However, from a conservative perspective (or, for that matter, from any perspective that doesn't trust party insiders or those with rapid access to hundreds of millions of dollars) a national primary would make many of our current problems much worse rather than solving them.
Keep ranting! Love it!
That's purely disgusting to the bone to ride this serious of an election just to get your message out....you have got to be kidding... for doing so is on the very back of this nations peril... what a self-induldging ba*sta*d of a snake he is then. I had great disdain for ron Paul because it has appeared he's pimping for Romney..which means he's pimping for Obam...but then to even consider what you wrote. He's worse than a traitor! I heard the jack a** had NH covered with homemade signs for him so thick you could hardly see the roadside scenery. Between Romney and paul that's all there was.....sounds to me like Pauls' a Romney bot and that makes you one as well.
1. Romney
2. Paul
3. Huntsman
Did they allow any heterosexuals to vote in New Hampshire?
This is Paul last campaign and he just wants to get his message out. But more than a few of us are kinda hoping he wins. :)
______
Yeah right, Ron Paul will be running from his hospital bed on a ventilator in 2024, his supporters will push the bed up to the podium on each campaign stop.
In 2036 Ron Paul’s cryogenically saved head will be running for President.
Some folks insist on inflicting themselves on the public for life, like McCain, Romney, Paul, etc.
Voters don’t pay attention to delegate account. All they know is who’s turn it is.
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