Written By : John Hawkins Posted on 01/14/2012 2:37:06 PM PST by xzins
Written By : John Hawkins Mitt Romney was a moderate governor in Massachusetts with an unimpressive record of governance. He left office with an approval rating in the thirties and his signature achievement, Romneycare, was a Hurricane Katrina style disaster for the state. Since that’s the case, it’s fair to ask what a Republican who’s not conservative and can’t even carry his own state brings to the table for GOP primary voters. The answer is always the same: Mitt Romney is supposed to be “the most electable” candidate. This is a baffling argument because many people just seem to assume it’s true, despite the plethora of evidence to the contrary.
1) People just don’t like Mitt: The entire GOP primary process so far has consisted of Republican voters desperately trying to find an alternative to Mitt Romney. Doesn’t it say something that GOP primary voters have, at one time or another, preferred Donald Trump, Michele Bachmann, Rick Perry, Newt Gingrich, and now even Ron Paul (In Iowa) to Mitt Romney?
To some people, this is a plus. They think that if conservatives don’t like Mitt Romney, that means moderates will like him. This misunderstands how the process of attracting independent voters works in a presidential race. While it’s true the swayable moderates don’t want to support a candidate they view as an extremist, they also don’t just automatically gravitate towards the most “moderate” candidate. To the contrary, independent voters tend to be moved by the excitement of the candidate’s base (See John McCain vs. Barack Obama for an example of how this works). This is how a very conservative candidate like Ronald Reagan could win landslide victories. He avoided being labeled an extremist as Goldwater was; yet his supporters were incredibly enthusiastic and moderates responded to it.
Let’s be perfectly honest: Mitt Romney excites no one except for Mormons, political consultants, and Jennifer Rubin. To everybody else on the right, Mitt Romney vs. Barack Obama would be a “lesser of two evils” election where we’d grudgingly back Mitt because we wouldn’t lose as badly with him in the White House as we would with Obama. That’s not the sort of thing that gets people fired up to make phone calls, canvass neighborhoods, or even put up “I heart Mitt” signs in their yards.
2) He’s a proven political loser: There’s a reason Mitt Romney has been able to say that he’s “not a career politician.” It’s because he’s not very good at politics. He lost to Ted Kennedy in 1994. Although he did win the governorship of Massachusetts in 2002, he did it without cracking 50% of the vote. Worse yet, he left office as the 48th most popular governor in America and would have lost if he had run again in 2006. Then, to top that off, he failed to capture the GOP nomination in 2008. This time around, despite having almost every advantage over what many people consider to be a weak field of candidates, Romney is still desperately struggling. Choosing Romney as the GOP nominee after running up that sort of track record would be like promoting a first baseman hitting .225 in AAA to the majors.
3) Running weak in the southern states: Barack Obama won North Carolina, Virginia, and Florida in 2008 and you can be sure that he will be targeting all three of those states again. This is a problem for Romney because he would be much less likely than either Gingrich or Perry to carry any of those states. Moderate northern Republicans have consistently performed poorly in the south and Romney won’t be any exception. That was certainly the case in 2008 when both McCain and Huckabee dominated Romney in primaries across the south. Mitt didn’t win a single primary in a southern state and although he finished second in Florida, he wasn’t even competitive in North Carolina or Virginia. Since losing any one of those states could be enough to hand the election to Obama in a close race, Mitt’s weakness there is no small matter.
4) His advantages disappear in a general election: It’s actually amazing that Mitt Romney isn’t lapping the whole field by 50 points because he has every advantage. Mitt has been running for President longer than the other contenders. He has more money and a better organization than the other candidates. The party establishment and inside the beltway media are firmly in his corner. That’s why the other nominees have been absolutely savaged while Romney, like John McCain before him, has been allowed to skate through the primaries without receiving serious scrutiny.
Yet, every one of those advantages disappears if he becomes the nominee. Suddenly Obama will be the more experienced candidate in the race for the presidency. He will also have more money and a better organization than Mitt. Moreover, in a general election, the establishment and beltway media will be aligned against Romney, not for him. Suddenly, Romney will go from getting a free pass to being public enemy #1 for the entire mainstream media.
If you took all those advantages away from Romney in the GOP primary, he’d be fighting with Jon Huntsman to stay out of last place. So, what happens when he’s the nominee and suddenly, all the pillars that have barely kept him propped up in SECOND place so far are suddenly removed? It may not be pretty.
5) Bain Capital: Mitt Romney became rich working for Bain Capital. This has been a plus for Romney in the Republican primaries where the grassroots tend to be dominated by people who love capitalism and the free market. However, in a year when Obama will be running a populist campaign and Occupy Wall Street is demonizing the “1%,” Mitt Romney will be a TAILOR MADE villain for them. Did you know that Bain Capital gutted companies and made a lot of money, in part, by laying off a lot of poor and middle class Americans? Do you know that Bain Capital got a federal bailout and Mitt Romney made lots of money off of it?
“The way the company was rescued was with a federal bailout of $10 million,” the ad says. “The rest of us had to absorb the loss … Romney? He and others made $4 million in this deal. … Mitt Romney: Maybe he’s just against government when it helps working men and women.”
The facts of the Bain & Co. turnaround are a little more complicated, but a Boston Globe report from 1994 confirms that Bain saw several million dollars in loans forgiven by the FDIC, which had taken over Bain’s failed creditor, the Bank of New England.
Did you know Ted Kennedy beat Romney in 1994 by hammering Mitt relentlessly on his time at Bain Capital? No wonder. The ads write themselves.
Imagine pictures of dilapidated, long since closed factories. They trot out scruffy looking workers talking about how bad life has been since Mitt Romney crushed their dreams and cost them their jobs. Then they show a clip of Mitt making his $10,000 bet and posing with money in his clothes. All Mitt needs is a monocle and a sniveling Waylon Smithers type character to follow him around shining his shoes to make him into the prototypical bad guy the Democrats are trying to create.
Now, the point of this isn’t to say that what Mitt did at Bain Capital was dishonorable. It certainly wasn’t. To the contrary, as a conservative, I find his work in the private sector to be just about the only thing he has going for him. But, people should realize that in a general election, Mitt’s time at Bain Capital will probably end up being somewhere between a small asset and a large liability, depending on which side does a better job of defining it.
6) The Mormon Factor: This is a sensitive topic; so I am going to handle it much, much more gently than Hollywood and the mainstream media will if Mitt gets the nomination. Mormons do believe in Jesus Christ, the Mormon Church does a lot of good work, the ones I’ve met seem to be good people, and two of my best friends are Mormons. That being said, Mormons are not considered to be a mainstream Christian religion in large swathes of the country. There will be Protestants who will have deep reservations about voting a Mormon into the White House because they’ll be afraid it will help promote what they believe to be a false religion. There have also been a number of polls that show that significant numbers of Americans won’t vote for a Mormon as President.
Just look at a couple of the more recent polls and consider how much of an impact this issue could have in a close election.
The poll found 67 percent of Americans want the president to be Christian and 52 percent said they consider Mormons to be Christian. Twenty-two percent of those polled said they don’t think Mormons are Christians and 26 percent are unsure.
“I do believe they are moral people, but again there is a difference between being moral and being saved,” Linda Dameron, an evangelical Republican in Independence, Mo., told the Tribune.
More than 40 percent of Americans would be uncomfortable with a Mormon as president, according to a new survey that also suggests that as more white evangelical voters have learned White House hopeful Mitt Romney is Mormon, the less they like him.
A survey by the Public Religion Research Institute released late Monday also shows that nearly half of white evangelical Protestant voters — a key demographic in the Republican primary race — don’t believe that Mormonism is a Christian faith, and about two-thirds of adults say the LDS faith is somewhat or very different than their own.
You should also keep in mind that if Mitt Romney gets the nomination, Hollywood and the mainstream media will conduct a vicious, months’ long hate campaign against the Mormon Church. They will take every opportunity to make Mormons look weird, racist, kooky, scary, and different. Would this be a decisive factor? I’d like to say no, but by the time all is said and done, it’s very easy to see Romney potentially losing hundreds of thousands of votes across the country because of his religion.
7) He’s a flip-flopper. Maybe my memory is failing me, but didn’t George Bush beat John Kerry’s brains in with the “flip flopper” charge back in 2004? So now, just eight years later, the GOP is going to run someone that even our own side agrees is a flip-flopper right out of the gate? Romney doesn’t even handle the charge well. When Brett Baier at Fox pointed out the obvious, Romney’s response was to get huffy and deny that he was flip flopping, which is kind of like Lady Gaga denying that she likes to get attention. If Mitt can’t even handle run-of-the-mill questions from FOX NEWS about his flip flopping, what makes anyone think he can deal with the rest of the press in a general election?
There are a lot of issues with trying to run a candidate who doesn’t seem to have any core principles. It makes it impossible for his supporters to get excited about him because you can’t fall in love with a weathervane. Even worse, since politicians tend to be such liars anyway and you know Romney has no firm beliefs, it’s very easy for everyone to assume the worst. Democrats will feel that Romney will be a right wing death-beast. Republicans will think that Romney will screw them over. Independents won’t know what to believe, which will make the hundreds of millions that Obama will spend on attack ads particularly effective. Ronald Reagan famously said the GOP needed “a banner of no pale pastels, but bold colors.” That’s particularly relevant when it comes to Mitt Romney who has proven to be a pasty grey pile of formless mush.
That would be a great ticket.
His campaign theme song ought to be “The Great Pretender”
Thanks for the ping. Here’s my thoughts on this guys analysis:
1) People just don’t like Mitt. (Weak)
2) He’s a proven political loser (Weak - Lincoln, plus thus far he’s been able to keep us completely disunified and at one another’s throats as to who is most conservative. That we’re unable to rally and concentrate our focus shows that he gets the political landscape, at least the GOP Primary side. How he’ll fair in the general...)
3) Running weak in the southern states: (Critical, but Barack Obama won North Carolina, Virginia, and Florida in 2008) (A running mate from the south will be necessary. It’s why I suspect Perry’s still in the race. I have a terrible suspicion that a deal’s been or is being cut & that’s keeping everyone in.)
4) His advantages disappear in a general election (True and Critical)
5) Bain Capital (Critical & if he doesn’t clarify this his Richie Rich upbringing will kill him)
6) The Mormon Factor (Completely accurate & critical. He’ll be pincered between white Evangelicals and the Pink Mafia. It won’t be pretty)
7) He’s a flip-flopper. (This one is the real killer. Obama can just triangulate and the media will back him.)
I can see a major problem with a Mormon on the ticket (possibly not as VP, but there is no reason to put Mitt or Huntsman on the ticket as VP), but I don't think Evangelicals will have any issue with a socially conservative Catholic (especially if the other option is Obama).
I think the Mormon thing will instantly blow up like a nuclear bomb. Mormonism has so much that will immediately damn him. I rarely read the Mormon/anti-Mormon threads on FR but I’ve read enough to know that even that alone is enough reason for the Dems to be slavering to get Mitt as the candidate. I am sure that’s one of the reasons Ron Paul is supposedly doing so well, the Dems want Paul to mess up the other R candidates’ chances to insure a Romney candidate. The Mormon thing cannot be hushed up, the MSM/Dems (but again, I repeat myself) will bring it out front and foremost in lurid detail.
Exactly. On social issues Romney is completely at odds with mainstream Mormonism.
The few Mormons I’ve known have been social liberals, don’t know if that’s common or not.
I said I am not a Romneybot. I am now supporting Romney over the others in the race. If there was someone who I thought was better I would support them. My chronology is this. I supported Herman Cain, he faultered. I then went to Newt for a Tiny bit because I thought he did well in the debates at the time. Since he has in only my opinion whined and became nasty. A very unattractive quality for a candidate i became a non-newt fan strongly. Furthermore, I resented his leftist attacks on Bain. His and Perry’s leftist arguments do a great dis-service in my opinion to the free market and conservatism. Bain in my opinion provided funding to small and medium business to grow and re-organize. That is a good thing. So when Newt became nasty and made those Bain anti capitalist statements I got really turned off combined with other things. By default, and only by default I am now going to support Romney. If there was someone better I would support them. I know we all have our own opinions, but I believe only in my opinion some of the attacks on Romney are somewhat unfair and over the top here. You may not like Romney, but Newt and Perry really did a dis-service to Republicans by running a leftist attack. (With the exception of helping Romney prepare for future Obama attacks). If they wanted to attack him on Romney care that is fair. I am always open to listening to others views. I am certain Newt (nasty and leftist bain), Perry (no abilility to debate), Santorum (just doesn’t have it),
On Fox right now and seems to be having some success with applause.Still, no one is there from the other candidates to put him on the spot. And as long as conservs divide the vote, he is in the cat bird’s seat . Perry for sure should go and support ...Newt.
For all those reasons and more: STOP ROMNEY NOW!
I think Newt is the best by far, so my prayers belong to him.
It’s his turn now at the Huckster’s forum, (where reportedly either he was boo-ed or the questioner) so I’m taking leave for 15 minutes to watch him!
then who? who won’t be attacked by media or obama? Newt divorcing 2 wives? Getting almost expelled via eithics from Congress? etc...etc... Perry? “Dumb Texan” (not my opinion), “stupid” etc...etc...”religous nut” (again not my opinion) etc....etc... Santorum “Right Wing Religous Nut” (again not my opinion), certain “right wing” religous beliefs etc...etc...they will attack any Republican. I do agree Mormons will be attacked, but I really think not all but the middle who make up elections will reject it. Especially, since Romney will then talk about Reverend Wright and “Husseins” real religion.
Hate to break it to you, but that makes you a Romneybot.
We need to unite behind one conservative candidate. IMHO, Rick Santorum is the best choice available.
Thank you for pointing this out. You are right this will be a very close election. King Obama has created a machine that almost includes half of the Country. He spent billions of tax payers money building this captured audience. The MSM commands a huge audience and they are in his pocket. The sick Hollywood types have a large influence of millions. We could go on and on but the botton line is King Obama in the final analysis could be reelected.
At this point I would be fine with Santorum or Newt. I would be okay with Perry, but I expect him to be out of the race either next week or certainly after Florida.
Thanks, and agreed with you that we need to coalesce around one candidate by January 21.
Let me just rename my “charismatic” category. I think “communicator” would have been a more accurate attribute title.
lol. Guess I am then. But, if Romney started to whine, make leftist attacks, etc...etc... I would go to plan B. It seems all you people here are married to your candidates. That is what I thought is mean by the “Bot” extension. I am not married to this candidate. I am just trying to support the best one to succeed in beating Obama. One who is not making leftist arguements. Guess most of you don’t think appearance in the TV age matters to independent women (who decide elections unfortunately).
Obviously, everyone has been attacked in every election since Washington’s terms ended.
However, the entire theme of Obama’s most recent year is that the rich are killing everybody. Romney plays right into that.
Newt’s personal life is a problem EXCEPT for his religious conversion, and America is a religious nation and believes in conversion.
Newt’s ethics charges were found unwarranted, and even then involved a class he was teaching that might have been considered political in nature, even though it was about history (I think).
Reverend Wright is a dead, 4 year old issue. It was on Fox News every night during the last campaign and it didn’t affect any but conservatives, apparently. Most Americans don’t know Mormonism, so it’ll be new to them.
What will come of Romney? He will be taken to the cleaners by Gingrich.
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