Seven Reasons Newt Lost Florida (Despite My Prediction to the Contrary)

Review of my Own Analysis ^ | 1 February 2012 | Vigilanteman

[hoosiermama]

Click to Donate to Newt Gingrich

[Will88]

When Newt first began to respond to the Mitt Super-Pac negative ads, I commented that if Newt decided to become his own hatchet man that it would hurt him with the voters. Mitt’s Super-Pac might have started the negative ads in a big way, but when Newt began to retaliate personally during the debates, that hurt him.

The reality seems to be that candidates can benefit from negative campaigning if done by others or in ads, but can be hurt if done by the candidate himself.

[Biggirl]

Look for the rest of the south to go to Newt. Other than for the northen part of FL which is what is left of the American south is the only part that went to Newt.

[Mountain Mary]

Okay, here’s one thing I can’t get out of my head today.
The Romney campaign blatantly modeled the playbook of Saul Alinsky Rules for Radicals 101. Target your enemy, Freeze it and then Destroy it(paraphrase).
So lemme get this straight. The pro Mittens groupies/Fla.voters are okay with that. THE GOP-E is fine with it. WTH doesn’t someone call them out for what they really are: Chicago thugs?
What is happening in our society when we are so desensitized to behavior like this that we are supposed to ignore it or sanction it under the guise of being acceptable for the sake of winning at all costs by leveling a fellow Republican?

[No!]

I want to see the vote counts with the early voting subbed for EACH and also stripped out.

I just can’t imagine the Cuban conservatives going so hard for Mitt.

I don’t get it, OR what you said about it.

[GOPyouth]

I listened to Herman Cain this morning on the drive to work. He was on Fox & Friends and said he sent a text to Newt last night with 2 statements:
1. Get some sleep.
2. Call me tomorrow and let's talk strategy.

Newt needs a good strategy session that will narrow down the goals, and drive them home from there.

If he wants to go after Romney, there's plenty of ammo to choose from via his record as governor. Contrast it. Show how many jobs were created in the mid 90s and compare it to the job creation in Mass when Mitt was gov. But, I would hope he lays off the Bain stuff and the Kosher food robo-calls.

We took a lump or 4 last night, but due to 1/2 the delegates being stripped this was not anywhere near a mortal blow to his campaign. Florida's neighbor to the north has, what, 76 delegates?

Newt must refocus, listen to some fresh campaign ideas, and make the majority of the push about Newt and his vision to make this country better. I expect him to go after Mitt, but Newt must give America a reason to vote for him, and not just be a reason to vote against Mitt.

[hoosiermama]

Mary, if they can use it we'll use it in a more positive, fun fashion. Two can play this game. Thought of this idea last night and freepers have helped me make it a reality.
Click to Donate to Newt Gingrich

[Vigilanteman]

Excellent observation. I'm a big believer than logic, analysis and course correction always does more good than whining and hand-wringing.

Let me also correct the URL link to my main source on this piece which suggests solutions.

[hoosiermama]

Most people have no idea how the are manipulated, what a meme is how it is used etc. Alinsky’s methods work. But it is up to us whether we use than for good or evil.

[hoosiermama]

Do you happen to have any contact information for Herman?

[joe fonebone]

seven reasons??? there are over 2 million reasons, and they would be the lazy asses that did not go and vote.. period... end of discussion

[Will88]

Most voters like tough, smart Newt. They’d don’t like mean, mad Newt.

[GOPyouth]

Do you happen to have any contact information for Herman?

Ha.. no. :) I'm not that far up the food chain for that info. For that matter, any food chain. :)

[Carpe Cerevisi]

Alinsky’s methods work. But it is up to us whether we use than for good or evil.

A book dedicated to Satan can only be used for evil.

[throwback]

Reason #8: Gender gap. Newt thought he dodged that bullet in SC for good. Guess what, he didn’t, and it will be even more of a factor in the general.

[Valentine Michael Smith]

I am a Newt supporter, but I don’t think having our candidate “attack from the left” is what people on this site are looking for.

[Vigilanteman]

I just can’t imagine the Cuban conservatives going so hard for Mitt.

I can. A lot of them are fed up with illegal immigration. Creating incentives for self-deportation is one of the most effective ways to combat it. Newt was stupid to attack Mitt Romney for making this suggestion, particularly when there is so much legitimate ammo.

I'm not sure how you are going to strip out the votes for early versus same day voting. They all get mixed together in the end. About the only way I can imagine it would happen is to get a representative sample of early voters from exit polling or phone interviews. I just don't see an accurate way to do that without spending a ton of money. It would be like sampling absentee voters. Its just not going to happen with existing technologies.

All Freepers need to go to other sites once in awhile to see what people other than hard conservatives are thinking. In most cases, it will convince you that we are more right than ever, but it will at least give you some added perspective. I'm not suggesting just nominally conservative sites like Drudge or Michael Savage, but even far left sites.

Of course, I'd avoid something like Democrat Underground as it borders on pornographic. LiberalsAreCool.Com, on the other hand, gives you a pretty good perspective of their upside down thinking without the sewer pipe.

You will eventually see some of the arguments made here make it into the enemedia just as you will see arguments made on Free Republic make it into the conservative media.

[Vigilanteman]

Very valid point and ratified big time in the exit polling. A larger portion of the female vote is based on feelings (including bandwagon voters) than that of men. It is a stark reality which any successful candidate has to deal with.

[Jeff Head]

Good analysis.

Here are the cumulative vote figures to date from an excel file I am keeping and updating after each primary/caucus:

---

	Romney			Gingrich			Santorum			Paul			Huntsman			Perry			Bachman			Totals
	Votes	%	Delegts	Votes	%	Delegts	Votes	%	Delegts	Votes	%	Delegts	Votes	%	Delegts	Votes	%	Delegts	Votes	%	Delegts	Votes	Delegts
Iowa	39,805	30.46%	7	16,163	12.37%	2	29,839	22.83%	7	26,036	19.92%	7	245	0.19%	0	12,557	9.61%	0	6,046	4.63%	0	130,691	23
New Hampshire	97,532	39.77%	7	23,411	9.55%	0	23,362	9.53%	0	56,848	23.18%	3	41,945	17.11%	0	1,766	0.72%	0	349	0.14%	0	245,213	10
South Carolina	167,279	27.75%	2	243,153	40.34%	23	102,055	16.93%	0	77,993	12.94%	0	1,161	0.19%	0	2,494	0.41%	0	494	0.08%	0	602,821	25
Florida	771,842	46.30%	50	531,294	31.87%	0	222,248	13.33%	0	116,776	7.00%	0	6,182	0.37%	0	6,742	0.40%	0	3,947	0.24%		1,667,223	50
At large Dels			18			2			1			0			0			0			0		21
TOTALS	1,076,458	40.81%	84	814,021	30.86%	27	377,504	14.31%	8	277,653	10.53%	10	49,533	1.88%	0	23,559	0.89%	0	10,836	0.41%	0	2,637,756	129