Skip to comments.GALLUP DAILY: GOP Ballot Tracking (2/26: Romney 31, Santorum 29, Gingrich 15.)
Posted on 02/26/2012 10:02:56 AM PST by BCrago66
For the general trend, see the graph at the bottom of the page:
(Excerpt) Read more at gallup.com ...
Shouldn't this be, "With Rick damaged, and Newt damaged worse, that conservative would be who?"
How many democrats were Polled?..
The thought of Santorum “on top” is as depressing as Romney on top.
America needs Newt.
Santorum top choice of 46% of Ohio #TeaParty in Cincinnati area. #Gingrich 31%, both #Romney & #Paul 11.5% #ohgop #tngop #migop #azgop
It’s not going to happen. You still don’t understand the nature of Santorum’s supporters.
Sure, Rick picked up some support from Newt and some of that could move back (I expect Gingrich to get near 20%, in the tracking poll but not much over that).
What you don’t understand though is that a large chunk of Santorum supporters are prior Bachmann, Cain, Perry folks that viewed Rick as the last acceptable choice. Many of these people don’t view Newt as a viable conservative alternative to Romney because Newt lacks Trust and likeability. Outside of the South, I see no place where Newt would have success in a 1 on 1 against Romney.
Additionally, what little support Santorum has among Seniors, Hispanics, and females, those 3 groups (outside of the Southern States) will almost all go to Romney if Santorum loses them.
Zero, unless you count RINOs. I cropped the headline, because of the character limit, but the Gallup poll is called:
“GALLUP DAILY: GOP Ballot Tracking, Among Republican Registered Voters”
I WILL NEVER VOTE FOR ROMNEY!!!!! Focus on congress and senate,
also any governors that are up for election!!!!!
America’s true conservatives need Newt’s fans to vote for Rick in Michigan.
Besides the religious social differences, the two are both, big government Bureaucrats.
The Southern states are anything but inconsequential. Certainly Romney can’t win the nomination outright without performing well in the Southern states. You say it’s possible support will come back to Newt...well there’s a LOT of support that used to be there that certainly could come back then. Your argument that there are too many people who he was never acceptable to doesn’t wash considering how high he’s been in the polls before.
I’m for both Rick and Newt staying in through the end of March at least. People need to realize that there is now almost certainly NO possible way either Newt or Rick wins the nomination without them both being on the same Pres./V.P. ticket. So the supporters of one better start warming up to the other.
I have faith that the truth will come out. Newt is as trustworthy a politician as you’ll ever find. Out of all the smears, I haven’t seen any evidence yet that he ever broke a campaign promise. Everything promised in the Contract with America was voted on.
As for likability, I like Rick but I love Newt. You may be right that I simply cannot understand why anyone who wants to see conservative policy drive our government would not love a guy like Newt who fought hard against the establishment to push the Republican party and the country to the right for 2 decades in public office.
Tell me where Newt beats Romney OUTSIDE the South. Come on, tell me. Where in the 57 states is this going to take place?
In case you forgot, General Elections are fought and decided by the Electoral College. How does Newt get to 270? I’ll give you a hint: he would have to win one of the following battlegrounds (NH, PA, MI, WI, IA, NM, CO, NV)
Where’s that victory going to come from? NH? Not likely given the Demographics. PA? Newt’s unfavorability ratings would crush him in the Philadelphia suburban counties. WI? Not likely since he hasn’t won anywhere else in the midwest. IA? I don’t think so. CO? Not when Tom Tancredo doesn’t like your amnesty stance on immigration and plus Newt was crushed in the primary. NM and NV, 2 states made up of Seniors and Hispanics? Go back and see how Newt did in South FL and NV for that answer.
Now let’s look at Santorum. He won IA, CO, MN, and has a good chance to win MI. PA is his home state. He has union ties which favor some crossover Reagan Democrat voters who do have a favorable opinion of him on likeability and TRUST. He is not toxic with female voters outside the South that Newt cannot carry. Except for NH, Santorum would have EXCELLENT chances to sweep ALL of the Battleground states.
Facts, voting trends, Demographics. If you actually STUDY them, you’ll realize WHY Santorum is CLEARLY the most electable conservative candidate who can defeat both Romney and Obama.
Newt was polling far ahead in Iowa back in December. There is no fundamental, immutable aversion to Newt that cannot shift in the next 9 months the way it shifted in the last 2 months. Who is going to be more impressive in the convention speech and in the debates, the biggest exposure a candidate gets to the American public in the general election? Rick has certainly flubbed debates more often and worse than Newt has.
A two-man race between Obama and the Republican candidate is a very different calculation than a primary with multiple candidates. There is a strong anti-Obama vote that will vote for whoever the Republican is, as long as they seem like a credible candidate and not a flake. Newt has a better chance of seeming acceptable to moderates than Rick does (he can speak to economic populism while not turning off the anti-holy-roller crowd), while still holding onto conservatives. Mitt can get the moderate vote, but turns off conservatives.
If Newt picks Rick as the V.P. then Newt will have a boost anywhere where Santorum does well. The V.P. pick is just one wild card that can dramatically shift not only predictions for the general election, but even shift the polls in one day when it’s announced as we saw with Sarah Palin.
I wonder if there’s any historical precedent for a candidate picking his VP before the end of his party’s primary battle. And even if there isn’t, what to stop a Gingrich/Santorum or Santorum/Gingrich team going up against the deathstar of Romney/MSM/Wall Street/Washington Establishment? (Such a pick would not be legally binding, but it would a public pledge, the two would campaign together, etc.)
I wouldn’t say such a team would be guaranteed victory, but I would put the odds at at least 80%.
It's looking like there's company for the Anybody But Romney crowd. I believe there is now a significant faction in the GOP that is Anybody But Santorum. It's probably second only to the anti-Romney crowd in size.
Both of these candidates attract a strong negative reaction.
When you hear in the news over the next couple of weeks about the ABS faction, remember you heard it hear first.
Of course this is just my opinion and I could be filled to the brim with sh!t.
[ GALLUP DAILY: GOP Ballot Tracking, Among Republican Registered Voters ]
I don’t trust Gallup... Polls are completely propaganda..
A poll is agitprop in every situation.. the very concept is agitprop..