Skip to comments.Romney, Santorum camps at odds over delegate math (Mitt's Voodoo Math)
Posted on 03/07/2012 11:48:35 AM PST by Cincinatus' Wife
In a memo to reporters, Romney Political Director Rich Beeson laid out his camp's view that neither Santorum nor any of the other candidates in the race has any chance of securing enough delegates to secure the Republican nomination......
"Super Tuesday dramatically reduced the likelihood that any of Governor Romney's opponents can obtain the Republican nomination," Beeson wrote. "As Governor Romney's opponents attempt to ignore the basic principles of math, the only person's odds of winning they are increasing are President Obama's."
Beeson cited Romney's current lead in delegates and a tough upcoming primary and caucus calendar as examples of the tough road ahead for Romney's rivals. CNN currently estimates Romney to have won 404 delegates, well ahead of Santorum at 165, Newt Gingrich with 106 and Ron Paul with 66. A candidate needs 1,144 delegates to seal up the GOP nomination.
"Neither opponent succeeded in closing his delegate deficit, and the calendar ahead offers them dwindling opportunities to close the gap," Beeson wrote. "Looking at the weeks ahead, the remaining 34 contests have turned into a steep uphill climb for Governor Romney's opponents."
But, speaking to CNN, Santorum campaign adviser John Brabender brushed off the Romney campaign's analysis as "voodoo math," saying the figures were meant to dissuade voters from casting ballots for rival candidates.
"What he is saying he wants to do is disenfranchise Republican primary voters," Brabender said, pointing out that many of the delegates currently awarded to Romney in estimates were non-binding.
"What Romney is trying to do is call the game before it's even halftime because he has a lead," Brabender said.
He asserted conservatives shouldn't let a "moderate" dictate the winner of the Republican primary.
(Excerpt) Read more at politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com ...
How many winner take all states left will lean Romney? That should be interesting.
Go pick a fight with someone else.
I don’t mind the proportional method. It’s like the Electoral college. Romney zeros in on the high population centers and the rural areas have no voice.
There will be more winner take all coming down the line.
“Go pick a fight with someone else”
Okay. If you don’t feel like justifying your use of “disenfranchise” as anything but egregious, I’m content to rest on victory.
In a way, Santorum had that opportunity in Michigan when Newt did not campaign there.
You insult me and then run like a rat shouting “victory” because I won’t engage you. You argue like a woman.
Great work! Thanks!
“In a way, Santorum had that opportunity in Michigan when Newt did not campaign there.”
So why bother with primary voting if come hell or high water the numbers WILL be what the party elites want anyway?
They may just as well pick their person and alienate party members and "dictate" who will be "our" choice.
Advertising dollars in a local economy, and a chance for boot-licking media and would-be appointees to humiliate themselves before their masters.
So santorum’s guy is blasting romney for doing what santorum himself is doing - which is to discourage voters from supporting their opponents and trying to get their opponents t drop out. This is a friggin circus.
The Romney camp doesnt want to have Mitt go to his right to win. The Tea Party voters are pushing the agenda far beyond where the Establishment wishes to go. The Roves of the party decided long ago, then the party must never to any further right than George W, Bush, and no movement conservative in Texas ever thought the President to be one of them.
So, if a candidate manages to take 35% of the vote, with the remaining 65% going to other candidates, but split to the point that none of them manage to top 35%, then all of that state’s delegates should go to someone who the majority of the public rejected? The point of the state primaries is for delegates to be selected that provide a reasonable representation of the party at the national convention. Winner-take-all distorts this to a large degree, and would have guaranteed a Romney win by now. It isn’t “dumbing down”, it’s a system that produces a much more accurate reflection of the party voters.
The fix was in from the start. The establishment has manipulated, and continues to manipulate the system to ensure a Romney victory.
I stopped the list at that date...will add more later if necessary.
The next 10 days will show results in Kansas, Alabama, Mississippi and Missouri. If Newt can’t pull off at least one of those states (and if Santorum gets a sweep), it will make no sense for Newt to remain in the race. Having said that, the only way I see for Santorum to head off Romney is to take the bold step of declaring Newt as his VP running mate before the big primaries in Illinois on March 20 and Louisiana on March 24. A sweep of those two states would give the Santorum-Gingrich team huge momentum heading into the stretch run. Maryland, Wisconsin, Connecticut, Delaware, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Indiana, North Carolina, West Virginia, Nebraska, Oregon, Arkansas, Kentucky and Texas all vote before the end of May. Nine of those states would be a lock for Santorum-Gingrich and they’d be competitive in Maryland, New York and Oregon. You never know what will happen if Romney loses his sheen of inevitability. Tough situations call for bold action. Santorum and Newt need to get in a room and sort this out in the next 10 days. The window of opportunity will soon close.
If they were able and willing to do that, I agree, they would create the best shot for 1st, stopping Romney getting an outright nomination, and setting themselves up to do so instead.
Just listening to Kristol on FNC say that the next three States will be a win for Santorum and that Gingrich may have no alternative but to make it a two way race and bow out. They’ve already determined that Newt could not possibly win the next three States and believes Santorum has an outside chance of possibly pulling this out one-on-one against Romney.
How is it possible for you to misunderstand such a simple idea?