Posted on 03/10/2012 4:04:00 PM PST by blam
DEAR ECRI: It's Time To Issue A Simple 3-Word Report: 'We Were Wrong'
Henry Blodget
Mar. 10, 2012
Last September, amid the debt-ceiling debacle and Europe going all to hell, economic-forecasting firm ECRI declared that the economy was "tipping into recession."
At the time, this call was not surprising: the economy really did look like it was headed into the tank. ECRI's call also left no wiggle room: Unlike many mealy-mouthed Wall Street predictions, it was precise and clear: "The economy is tipping into a recession."
ECRI Managing Director Lakshman Achuthan amplified the call with high-profile media appearances in which he stated unequivocally that a recession was imminent and unavoidable.
Six months later, the economy is still growing steadily, if unspectacularly. In fact, GDP growth has improved since ECRI made its call.
What's more, ECRI's famous recession predictor, the Weekly Leading Index, is now improving steadily every week, suggesting that the economic outlook is getting better, not worse.
ECRI's forecasts are highly controversial on Wall Street, because ECRI refuses to explain what factors it considers when making them.
ECRI simply insists that its forecasts are never wrong.
In recent months, as ECRI's September call has appeared more and more wrong--again, GDP growth has improved since September--ECRI has done what many Wall Street forecasters do when their calls don't materialize: Explain that their call didn't mean what everyone thinks it meant and extend the time frame for their prediction. Some economic indicators are deteriorating, Mr. Achuthan told CNN recently, and the recession will begin soon.
And there's no doubt that a recession will begin sometime.
But it seems highly unlikely that what ECRI meant when it told clients last September that "the economy is tipping into recession" was that GDP would immediately improve and then
(snip)
(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...
Whew! Glad that’s over!
On Febuary 24, ECRI had this to say:
ECRI CHIEF ACHUTHAN: I'm Sticking With My Recession Call, The Numbers Are Still Awful
It’s like telling us that the steaming turd obama and the democrat party has handed us is really a Baby Ruth bar.
No recession.
Yeah, right you jackasses; the recession never ended.
Let me amend that; the recession never ended for anybody except democrats and their donors/partners in crime. They are all profiting handsomely like Soros and Buffett.
So, why are the personal income tax receipts of the 2 states that "added the most jobs in 2011" cratering?
California and Texas income tax receipts are doing a swan dive. Maybe they made it optional for the "new hires" to pay their state & federal income taxes...
Proof that the economy is back on track!
I think I will go with ECRI. Blodget was one of the original movers and shakers before he was caught and disciplined. All of his forecasts have been within the official pimpline since then.
It’s OK ECRI. I too am always late on my calls because I underestimate the power of the US government to delay the inevitable. You’ll be proved right soon.
ecri is correct...the slowdowns in the rest of the world MATTER...in the last 10 yers correlations between nations economics have surged together...so when china, india, brazil, europe etc are falling america isnt an oasis
lets remember how innacurate mr bludgett was in 2000 when tech stocks crashed on his lousey advice
right now capital goods have no where to go bludgett u jerk
ecri is correct...the slowdowns in the rest of the world MATTER...in the last 10 yers correlations between nations economics have surged together...so when china, india, brazil, europe etc are falling america isnt an oasis
lets remember how innacurate mr bludgett was in 2000 when tech stocks crashed on his lousey advice
right now capital goods have no where to go bludgett u jerk
Lets see!!! Energy consumption is falling...Income Tax receipts are falling...Imports are falling...yet, we’re in this tremendous recovery. Either ECRI is correct or the US economy has invented a perpetual motion machine.
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