The fight for the Republican nomination, by the numbers

CNN ^ | March 19, 2012 | Adam Levy

[Cincinatus' Wife]

...."We believe that May 8th is the beginning of the end for MittRomney and the date that puts RickSantorum on a path to the nomination," JohnPatrickYob, a Santorum strategist, wrote in a recent campaign memo. NorthCarolina, Indiana and WestVirginia vote that day; a win in all three could be pivotal to changing the momentum of the race.

Santorum isn't the only one looking ahead to May. The Gingrich campaign believes those and other May contests such as Arkansas,KentuckyandTexas will be fertile ground for delegates as well.

The 152 delegates at stake in Texas could be a boon for all the candidates. Gingrich has the endorsement of Gov.RickPerry, who unsuccessfully sought the GOPpresidential nomination. Expect Gingrich to lean on Perry when the primary turns to Texas.

"With 4 candidates remaining, the GOP nomination now moves into unchartered waters with history in the making,"...... "The sequencing and pace of the second half favors Newt.".....

Delegates: Pledged, unplugged and the power to switch

.............Unpledged delegates will sometimes follow three key members of their state's delegation: the party chair and the two national committee members. Except in states where they've lost their vote due to a penalty, these three members are part of every voting delegation at the convention.

The three members are leaders in the party and often have contact and influence with the campaigns and their state's delegation. If the convention is brokered, they can advise delegates on possibly switching their vote on a second or third ballot.

"They become magnifying forces for other unpledged or second ballot switchers," .....

Most pledged delegates are bound only on the first vote, making it crucial for any candidate who does not want a floor fight at the convention to lock up their delegates ahead of time. The three committee members can help accomplish that.......

[Cincinatus' Wife]

Time to get familiar with the lay of the land for a brokered convention.

[vbmoneyspender]

Cool. Where do I get the software that removes spaces between capitalized words. :-)

[Doogle]

CNN numbers

[Vigilanteman]

Current Delegate Tracking

1144 needed to clinch, 1324 remaining

Candidate, Won, percent of remainder needed

1. Romney, 521, 47.1%
   
2. Santorum, 253, 67.3%
   
3. Gingrich, 136, 76.1%
   
4. Paul, 50, 82.6%

   If Romney is awarded all of Puerto Rico (23) and Santorum all of Missouri (52) under standard rule of winner take all if absolute majority is won, then the numbers are:

   Romney, 544, 48.0%
   
   1. Santorum, 305, 67.2%
      
   2. Gingrich, 136, 80.7%
      
   3. Paul, 50, 87.6%

      IOW, the trend is our friend. But the gap isn't closing fast enough. Yet.

[Christie at the beach]

Newt has to fight on and fight hard/nothing else matters now, we have to make changes this election.

[Theodore R.]

Expect Gingrich to lean on Perry when the primary turns to Texas.

I don't think Perry can steer TX to anyone and maybe not himself either in 2014.