Romney currently has 497, Santorum has 183, Newt has 135 Committed delegates according to Wiki. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_Party_presidential_primaries,_2012
I am assuming Santorum will do really well through April 24th and win 50% of delegates. Romney could get 30% and Newt & Paul each get 10%.
If Santorum wins 50% of delegates through April 24th, he will have 183+.50x401 =384 delegates.
If Romney wins 30% of delegates through April 24th, he will have 497 + .30x401= 617 delegates.
After April 24th, there are 796 delegates remaining to be won.
Santorum needs to win (1144-384)/796 x 100 = 95.5% of remaining delegates to get to 1144. Mathematically possible, in reality, impossible.
Romney needs to win (1144-617)/796 x 100 = 66% of remaining delegates. Mathematically possible, in reality improbable.
Conclusion? Unless the candidates running make successful deals, we are going to a brokered convention. We will end up with a candidate sitting on the sidelines.
I want Myth’s blood on the convention floor at Tampa Bay.
The idea that Santorum will do really well through April 24 looks to me like wishful thinking. The primaries through April 24 are Wisconsin, Maryland, DC, New York, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Delaware. Romney figures to win every one except for Pennsylvania.
While your math seems to be accurate, your premises may be lacking.
“Romney wins 30% of delegates through April 24th”
This is what worries me. I think Mittens may get 215+ delegates through Apr 24. Most of those states want be friendly to Newt or Santorum.
This is a profoundly silly assumption.
Did you even bother to to look at the states from Louisiana until April 24?
Wisconsin - winner take all, Romney up 8 in the polls.
DC - winner take all. Romney gets all the delegates.
Maryland, winner take all, Romney gets all the delegates.
Missouri is a non-binding caucus, don't understand the system there:
New York: Proportional, but Romney will get a big majority of a crapload of delegates.
Pennslyvania - Santorum will win but Romney will still get some delegates, I bet.
Connecticut - All to Romney
Rhode Island - All to Romney
Deleware, winner take all, all to Romney.
Analyis does not consist of picking an impossible event that you invent evidence for in order to fantasize about it happening. It's logical, objective evaluation of the facts.
I have more chance of becoming direction of the Institute for Creation Research than there is chance there is a brokered convention.
If one were to generously give Santorum WI, most of LA & PA, plus a piece of NY, maybe he takes 140 to Mitten's 235.
But if Mittens takes WI (likely given Illinois), takes MD (which tilts urban these days), and gets over 50% in NY (less likely but not improbable), best Santorum can manage is something like 75 to Mitten's 300.
Super Tuesday II is the last chance to derail Mittens and yet it figures to be his best day of the primary season. Only the GOP could devise this system.
There is an RNC rule that to be considered, the candidate must have won in five states.