Santorum might drop out rather than lose Pennsylvania primary (Losing would end political career)

The Hill ^ | 04/04/2012 | Cameron Joseph

[SeekAndFind]

The possibility of a loss in his home state of Pennsylvania might force Rick Santorum to drop out of the Republican primary sooner than he’d planned, say GOP strategists.

Santorum is notoriously strong-willed, and those close to him say that party elders will not be able to convince him to exit the race if he thinks he has a shot at the Republican nomination.

But one of Santorum’s close friends told The Hill that while the former Pennsylvania senator remains confident about winning his home state and using that to build May momentum, if that confidence falters, he might exit the race. Pennsylvania state Sen. Jake Corman (R), a longtime friend of Santorum and his family, said if it appeared Santorum wasn’t going to win the state, the former senator could drop his campaign. “He’s a realist; he doesn’t have his head in the clouds,” Corman told The Hill. “As long as he sees a pathway to the nomination he’s going to stay in it, but he won’t stay in it to prove a point. If he gets to the point where he doesn’t think he’ll be the nominee, he’ll get out.”

Santorum is running second in the delegate count to rival Mitt Romney, and the party establishment is increasing pressure on the former senator to exit the race and clear a path for the former Massachusetts governor.

And while he led Romney by six points in a Quinnipiac poll of Pennsylvania voters out Tuesday, that was before Romney’s win in Wisconsin on Tuesday night. It’s also a decline for the former senator, who led Romney by double digits earlier this month.

Many Republican strategists argue that Santorum has resurrected his political career after a bad 2006 Senate loss with his surprisingly strong presidential campaign — but that another loss in his home state could undo all that work, leading to predictions that if he thinks he could lose Pennsylvania, he might bow out.

“If he loses Pennsylvania twice, that’s going to really hobble him in the future. That’d be very hard to live down,” said Kirsten Fedewa, Mike Huckabee’s 2008 communications director.

Fedewa speculated that Santorum may be encountering what Huckabee faced near the end of his campaign.

“There’s a point on the campaign trail where you start seeing diminishing returns, thinner crowds, you’re not getting the big boost on your website fundraising, the enthusiasm factor is dying down,” she said. “He’s going to be feeling it on the stump and seeing the impact on his campaign. He’s an anti-establishment candidate, so what the establishment does or doesn't do isn’t going to persuade him — but when he sees the intensity factor waning, that’s going to weigh heavily.”

Santorum is campaigning hard in his home state. The last two primary nights he’s held his post-election rallies in Pennsylvania. He’s scheduled to spend Wednesday campaigning there.

The former senator has insisted he’ll stay in the race through the April 24 primaries that include Pennsylvania as well as a number of states friendly to Romney: New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island and Delaware, and fight on through May, when the map includes a number of states where Santorum could be in good shape.

But Romney is not going to cede Pennsylvania. His campaign sent full-time staffers to the state last week and he will stump there Wednesday. A super-PAC that backs him has made inquiries about the costs of television buys in the state and has indicated it will make a large buy there soon, according to local sources.

Romney also has the endorsement of four Pennsylvania lawmakers — one more than Santorum’s three, according to The Hill’s tally.

On top of that, Santorum’s fundraising might have slowed to a trickle as his star has faded — and if he continues his campaign, there could be severe backlash from establishment Republicans that might limit his future role in the party.

“The biggest problem for Santorum is there’s a three-week lull, no way to break the media narrative that Romney has this sewn up and a continued race will only hurt the nominee,” Republican strategist Matt Mackowiak told The Hill on Monday. “Santorum’s desperately trying to survive until May … when does the pressure become too much?”

PoliticsPA managing editor Keegan Gibson said many of the attacks Romney has leveled against Santorum have even more resonance in Pennsylvania: his endorsement of centrist former Republican Sen. Arlen Specter (Pa.) over now-Sen. Pat Toomey (R-Pa.) in their 2004 primary and his move from Pennsylvania to the Washington, D.C., suburbs with his family. Santorum’s “going Washington” was a major attack line from Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D-Pa.) when he beat Santorum in 2006.

Another factor: Some of Toomey’s Tea Party backers remain angry at Santorum for his 2004 endorsement of Specter. Toomey himself has not endorsed Santorum, but recently praised Romney as a “conservative who will govern as a conservative.”

At a recent conservative confab in the state, Santorum was received politely but not raucously, and failed to garner a majority of the conference’s straw poll vote.

Former Rep. Phil English (R-Pa.), a Romney backer who managed Santorum’s first House race in 1990, called the results “stunning.”

“He’s done nothing to repair the damage that was created in the lead-up to 2006, and a lot of it was self-inflicted,” said English, who praised Santorum for his strong campaign but warned that if he continued to run the GOP establishment might blackball him in the future, which could severely limit his influence within the party.

“I supported Rick Santorum every time he ran for office and was thrilled he did as well as he did … but Rick Santorum has already effectively lost the nomination,” he said. “The question becomes, does he have any role in the future of the party?”

[ak267]

Mark Levin’s fist hour today on Romney’s election tactics was memorable.

-—57% of the delegates, but only 41% of the GOP primary vote

-—GOP primary vote depressed

-—Carpet bombing tactics

-—Enthusiasm gap

-—Early “red” state primaries had proportional delegates while “blue” states have winner take all.

[altura]

Judge not that you be not judged.

I’m not a fan of Romney’s religion but I don’t think it disqualifies him.

He will be better than Obama.

And you presume way too much about what God will or won’t do.

[gogogodzilla]

Romney is a bishop in a non-Christian sect.

So what? You have a problem with 'non-Christians'? Think, maybe, that they ought not to be in politics?

You brought this up as a negative, so defend it.

[gogogodzilla]

You, and Santorum, are living embodiments of the below principal.

Of all tyrannies, a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It would be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron's cruelty may sometimes sleep, his cupidity may at some point be satiated; but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end for they do so with the approval of their own conscience. They may be more likely to go to Heaven yet at the same time likelier to make a Hell of earth. This very kindness stings with intolerable insult. To be "cured" against one's will and cured of states which we may not regard as disease is to be put on a level of those who have not yet reached the age of reason or those who never will; to be classed with infants, imbeciles, and domestic animals.

- C.S. Lewis

[Vigilanteman]

Don't forget that Rick Santorum had no billionaire casino sugar daddy like Newt.

Unfortunately, momentum is no longer our friend. If Santorum loses in Pennsylvania, it might not only be the end of his quest for the GOP nomination, but also the end of his political career.

Seven reasons for Rick Santorum

1. Who has won the most states without the benefit of their own money, last election's organization or a billionaire casino sugar daddy?
   
2. Who is everybody's second choice when he isn't their first?
   
3. Who can get both the Romney people and the Gingrich people, who hate each other, to vote for him?
   
4. Who has the best record on immigration?
   
5. Who has the best plan for repealing ObamaCare? And is the only GOP candidate who didn't help write or approve legislation which helped spawn this fiasco?
   
6. Who has the best plan for expanding the American economy and strengthening American families?
   
7. Who is the closest thing we have to the "generic Republican" which polls show consistently beating Obama and is most likely to make the election about Obama's sorry record rather than about himself?

[Gene Eric]

>> Unfortunately, momentum is no longer our friend.

The gloss wore off. Newt should have remained the choice.

[Kenny]

I honestly think if Rick would start talking more about how he manages his money vs. Mitt, it could make a big difference. It’s going to be business as usual with Mitt because he doesn’t respect other people’s money. But Rick does respect the dollar and I think he could make a difference.

Also, Rick needs to talk about his plans for jobs and getting us out of debt. Needs to use his public forums more to get his word out.

[stpio]

Your C.S. Lewis quote, he was a little prejudiced, growing
up in Belfast. I think he was Catholic in his heart.

You have to help others realize you can’t support pro-
aborts. It’s a sin on your soul and must be confessed. Obama, a Herod is the maximum pro-abort, Romney, less murderous but he legislated abortion in Massachusetts.

No one has seen a change, an action on his part to believe Mitt is for life now.

“Next to the Blessed Sacrament itself, your neighbor is a holiest object presented to your senses.”
C.S. Lewis

[entropy12]

PPP poll

Mitt Romney’s taken the lead in PPP’s newest poll of Rick Santorum’s home state of Pennsylvania. Romney has 42% to 37% for Santorum with Ron Paul at 9% and Newt Gingrich at 6%. The numbers represent a dramatic turnaround from when PPP polled the state a month ago. Romney’s gained 17 points, going from 25% to 42%. Meanwhile Santorum’s dropped 6 points from 43% to 37%, for an overall swing of 23 points in the last four weeks.

[octex]

Ricky’s “political career” ended years ago when he was defeated by 18 points when running for re-election to the Senate. .....The guy is a motor-mouth and doesn’t understand when he should just stop talking when on the stump. ....He may have some good ideas, but he then keeps blabbing and gets away from them to talk about his personal social values.

[publana]

The man is a complete fool. He should have never been in this race to begin with, much less stayed in it this long.

[stpio]

Santorum isn’t quitting, the media is against him and the
constant negative ads Romney puts out costing millions.

I admire his courage.

4/4/2012

Predictably Predictable

by Robert McCain

Rick Santorum defiantly resists Mitt Romney’s “inevitability.”

...”Romney’s super PAC has spent nearly $30 million on advertising, 91 percent of it on negative ads aimed at either Gingrich or Santorum. By some estimates, the Romney campaign is spending at a rate of more than $15 per vote, compared to less than $6 per vote for Santorum.

None of that was mentioned Tuesday night in the post-primary discussion on Fox News, which predictably cut off Rick Santorum’s speech halfway through, and then predictably began discussing the campaign in terms of when Santorum would drop out and how Republicans could “coalesce” behind Romney who, the commentators declared, is now definitely the inevitable nominee. Karl Rove, Charles Krauthammer, Mary Katharine Ham, Stephen Hayes — every voice on Fox News was singing the same predictable tune from the hymnal of inevitability. Santorum’s supporters have been complaining for weeks about the transparent pro-Romney bias at Fox, and it was perhaps not entirely a coincidence that conservative columnist Michelle Malkin — a Fox News contributor who endorsed Santorum in January — chose Tuesday to link election coverage from MSNBC and CBS at her popular blog. The bandwagon psychology of the front-runner’s argument, which has been gathering force ever since Romney’s Jan. 31 victory in Florida, has nearly overwhelmed all rational resistance. Anyone who continues arguing against Romney’s inevitability is increasingly viewed as a spoilsport, if not indeed a madman.”...

http://spectator.org/archives/2012/04/04/predictably-predictable/print

[central_va]

“simply being a good idea doesn’t mean that the government legally has the power to do it”

Anything that aggravates Romney and keeps him from rushing to the center is good. Some losers on Free Republic don't seem to get it.

[fortheDeclaration]

There is no ‘glee’ at Romney getting the nomination, I was going for Newt.

[itsahoot]

are you threatening him.... or living in fairy land....

We shall see soon who is living in fairy land, I will stand by my prediction barring some unforeseen disaster in the current administration.

[alstewartfan]

Rick will NOT be offered VP. It’s going to be Rubio.

[cva66snipe]

He’s one of the foremost spineless RINOs

That can be said of the entire 2012 GOP POTUS field of contenders this election. We have too choose from a Massachusetts Elitist Liberal, A Pennsylvania moderate, a Georgia camera attention crazed egomaniac, and a whack from Texas who is only right about the economy.