Skip to comments.Data Indicate Election Will Be Referendum
Posted on 04/18/2012 9:52:14 PM PDT by neverdem
One of the more fashionable debates today is whether the 2012 election will be more of a choice between two candidates, or a referendum on the party in power. Over at The New Republic, Ed Kilgore provides one of the more cogent arguments for the former.
Kilgore's assertion flies in the face of the conventional wisdom: That in an incumbent election, the electorate engages in a two-step process. First, it decides whether it likes the incumbent. If it does, the incumbent is re-elected. If it doesnt, it then asks whether the challenger is acceptable. If the challenger is acceptable, the unpopular incumbent is defeated; if not, the incumbent is re-elected.
In other words, analysts who accept this model implicitly assume that the election is largely a referendum on the incumbent; how strong a referendum it is depends on how high you believe the bar to be cleared in Step 2 is.
Now, the fact that Kilgore disputes the conventional wisdom[CW] (and most thinking among political scientists) is not evidence that he is...
Now, perhaps the undecided voters will ultimately break for Obama, and this will start to look more like a "choice" election. This seems unlikely, given that his job approval among undecided voters is around 20 percent, but it is possible. Regardless, incumbent elections have historically looked more like referenda than choices, and so far, this election is looking like one as well. Voters who approve of the incumbent largely vote for him; those that do not approve of the incumbent vote for the challenger, except in extreme circumstances. The presidents supporters insisted otherwise in 2010; my suspicion is that, unless Obama can improve his job approval a point or two (by no means an impossible or even unlikely accomplishment), that they will be similarly disappointed this year.
(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...
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The electors said “No thank you RMoney, we’ve had enough GOP-e”
Will THEY ever get it?
What c hoice is there? Vote for the white liberal, the half white liberal or your concience? My conscience is ahead, 99.999% to 0.001% (I just took a poll, 1 respondent)
I think there will be a lot of “write ins” come November.
Sorry, I’m with Mark Levin on this one...I’m voting for the candidate that does NOT have contempt for our country.
They will be wasted votes. If Romney gets the nomination and wins, he won't be given the benefit of the doubt like the compasssionate conservative, GWB, was given. Romney isn't trusted.
Who will risk losing their support for reelection?
We can't even get that bunch to take on Obama.
The crickets in DC are the loudest voice aside from the liars and communists.
If I vote for either Obama (Not happening) or Romney, (again, not happening) I still have to explain some day to God how I could have voted for someone who would take money from hard working folks like me who believe in the sanctity of life and use that money to slaughter babies in the womb.
Frankly, I'm not going there. I haven't lived a perfect and sinless life by any account, but there has to be a line somewhere. I don't have to comply, in fact, I refuse.
Whatever happens here is the short term.
Whatever happens there goes on forever.
Not if Romney loses by a rat's whisker in 40 States, and data show a 10-15% vote for Other ..... I mean, could even the RiNO's begin to resist the mathematical implications, like 1992?
Who will risk losing their support for reelection?
The Tea Party movement is not dead by a long shot, although its influence was attenuated by the Great Recession, the Citizens United decision, too many candidates to the right of Romney from various perspectives and too many states with open primaries. The Communist Party USA endorsed Kerry in 2004 and Obama in 2008. Take your pick. There was a time for protest votes. That time was lost with the failure to remove Bill Clinton after he was impeached, IMHO. The marxist in al but name left knows how to play hardball. It's time for the right to understand that too.
Not too comforting considering that he will still be President weather he is trusted or not. Unless you plan on starting a movement to impeach him. This makes it all he more interesting who he will select as a running mate... as he might stand a chance [ is the scenario outlined above occurs ] of becoming President.
The Republican elite have co-opted the Tea Party movement - but not as bad as the Afrikaner elite co-opted the Boer people during the 20th cent. There are still a lot of independent Tea Party activists but the Republican establishment is clearly trying to steer it in much the same way the Afrikaners steered the smaller Boer people onto the establishment reservation.
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