(RCP) Battle for White House: 253 Obama, Toss Ups 115, Romney 170 (Obama only 17 Short)

Real Clear Politics ^ | 3 May 12 | RCP

[xzins]

Leans Obama

Maine (4)
Michigan (16)
Minnesota (10)
Nevada (6)
New Jersey (14)
New Mexico (5)
Oregon (7)
Pennsylvania (20)
Wisconsin (10)

Toss Up

Arizona (11)
Colorado (9)
Florida (29)
Iowa (6)
Missouri (10)
New Hampshire (4)
North Carolina (15)
Ohio (18)
Virginia (13)

Leans Romney

Georgia (16)
Indiana (11)
Montana (3)
South Carolina (9)

[LibLieSlayer]

WE WARNED YOU gop/e drones... mitt can't beat obama... the worst president and most racist communist to ever be elected to office in the US... and willard can't beat him... he couldn't even beat mccain... the second worst candidate the repubics have offered up in generations... mitt being number one!

LLS

[BigEdLB]

A lot of these polls used to generate the map use REGISTERED VOTERS. That is a plus 5 Dem advantage. Understanding that most undecideds go for the challenger as well makes a difference too. And, of course, any incumbent under 50% even though leading is in trouble. Plus marstegreg's point about certain polls oversampling Ds is a good one.

Some polls, which should be called push polls,anything with NBC, CBS, ABC, and CNN attached, is suspect, on its surface.

Pennsylvania was put in the lean Obama column by a Quinnipiac Poll, which had Obama +8. But a poll of Registered Voters, not Likely voters that is 47-39 Obama with 14 undecided is almost useless. Look at this poll this way - Registered to Likely - D -2.5 R+2.5 So now it is 44.5-41.5 Obama. 14 undecided which splits 3-1 for the challenger (Romney) That means 4.7 more for Obama, and 9.3 more for Romney. Therefore you end up with 49.2 for Obama and 50.8 for Romney. And RCP says that this fresh poll, finished 5/1 is a poll that makes the state 'lean Obama'. RCP is run by good people, McIntyre, is a decent fellow, but with what polls they include in their averages, they do not mean much.

14% undecided? LOL

[marstegreg]

14% undecided? LOL

I agree!!! With that many undecided, he is toast. Also, when I look at the “lean” Obama states, some of those are just wishful thinking (and a lot of spinning). I wonder what the polls for Jimmy Carter looked like. I am guessing that he was doing better than Obama and look what happened to him. Even with the voter fraud, he isn’t going to win.

[marstegreg]

This will make you feel so much better...
Here is an article about the Carter/Reagan polling. Enjoy.

http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,924541,00.html

[marstegreg]

This will make you feel so much better...
Here is an article about the Carter/Reagan polling. Enjoy.

http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,924541,00.html

[who knows what evil?]

The opportunity to “turn on Romney” was the Republican primaries.

Tough to do when you have so many 'open primaries' that allow DEMORATS to 'help' choose the GOP candidate.

[TonyInOhio]

The GOP-e's forcefed candidate is losing very badly electorally. Obama's 253 is up from 243 last week so another state or two is now polling in Obama's column.

C'mon. Using crappy RCP averages of registered voters to forecast Romney's doom is just plain wishful thinking. If you must use meaningless polling this far out, as least rely on a likely voter screen, which shows the race as a toss-up.

If you're looking for a more historically accurate means of long-range electoral prediction, I'd refer you here:

Weak GDP report clouds Obama’s reelection chances

"Let’s say the 2012 economy heading into Election Day resembles that of the past three quarters. If you plug those numbers into the forecasting model created by Ray Fair of Yale University, Obama would get just 48.4% of the two-party vote, a decisive loss to Mitt Romney."

[xzins]

Tony, if the election were held today in Ohio, it would be a near toss-up. The latest polls that I’ve seen in our state has Obama slightly ahead.

While we might find that amazing, that is what they say. Fox News poll is likely voters and Rasmussen is likely voters. Both have Obama ahead by about 4.

Fox News is in the tank for Mitt Romney.

[VRWC For Truth]

The GOPe isn't interested in winning. Their cushy lives go on with either Mittens or Soetoro in the WH. Concentrate on taking the Sin-ate. Chipping away at every election cycle will cause the whole sham of a system to collapse. Another 10 years at least unless this corrupt system collapses under its own weight.

[BigEdLB]

Here is some analysis I did of Registered Voter Polls...
I did use the 2/3 of the undecided go to the challenger thoery, so if you want to argue on that, please do so, but crazy Dick Morris says 85-90% based on past elections go to challengers when there is an incumbent. Example Ford was +1 in the last Gallup poll in 1976, but the result was Carter +2

As to the likely voter issue, and Rasmussen... Because you must subscribe to get demographics, it is hard to say if his sample is skewed one way or another in his state polls. Most of his state polls are done in one day, so time of day, is important. His better polls are the ones done over several days, but even there there is sometimes wide fluctuation which are not the most comfort building in terms of accuracy.

There was a truly the King of Bogus polls put out by WMUR/UNH which gets to the attempt to discourage issue. Unfortunately, for the pollster the Obama lead of 9 with a huge oversampling of Dems, which you can compare to the state party figures. If that is `adjusted` to the proper ratio, you get a Romney +2/+3 number... Which coincides with the Dartmouth Coll poll, who did use proper party ID figures when conducting their poll..

Also in the chart, above you can see several cases of oversampling of Dems, most notably PPP in Virginia, and Survey USA in NC...

[BigEdLB]

Bottom line... MY NUMBERS: Romney 285 (elected) Obama 149 tossup 104

[marstegreg]

THANKS!!!!! I (like you) never fall for this “The polls say...” stuff because I noticed that “the polls say” what ever the pollster wants them to say. One thing I have noticed is the better Obama polls, the harder it is to find the demographics. It is really getting hard to find some so I REALLY appreciate the chart you put up. Thanks again!!!!

[BigEdLB]

Better Obama Polls LOL Like Marquette Univ in Wisconsin.

[BigEdLB]

Better Obama Polls LOL Like Marquette Univ in Wisconsin.

[marstegreg]

LOL!!!! Looks like your AWESOME chart just proved my point. I noticed Obama is polling well in my home state of Ohio (but only if they keep increasing the number of dems)! I cannot name 1 person who voted for him in 2008 (that I know personally) that isn’t voting against him in 2012. How much longer they can keep this ruse up? Perhaps they will resort to polling ONLY Democrats so that he has a shot at polling over 50%.

[BigEdLB]

LOL Are you sure that will get him 50?.. /JK

[BigEdLB]

LOL Are you sure that will get him 50?.. /JK

[marstegreg]

LOL Are you sure that will get him 50?.. /JK

OUCH!!!:)

[StAnDeliver]

My most recent map is similar, albeit I flip IA & CO the other way, for 282-256.

The straight path to a Mitt win is 2008 + IN, NC, FL, NV, VA, OH = 271EV, and Bobo has already abandoned IN. Five states to victory.

[StAnDeliver]

"I did use the 2/3 of the undecided go to the challenger thoery, so if you want to argue on that, please do so, but crazy Dick Morris says 85-90% based on past elections go to challengers when there is an incumbent."

Amazing but true. As high as 90% to the challenger.

The only very minor caveat is that remaining undecideds 3 days out from election can be expected to majority break for an incumbent vice-president running for the top slot. This happened to Gore.