TX: Numbers bode well for Dewhurst in runoff, his pollster says (counting his chickens.....)

The Austin-American Statesman ^ | May 29, 2012 | Kate Alexander

[Cincinatus' Wife]

Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst has strong support from repeated Republican primary voters as well as senior citizens, two groups that are more likely to turn out for a July runoff for U.S. Senate, according to a Dewhurst campaign memo written by pollster Mike Baselice.

Supporters of former Texas Solicitor General Ted Cruz, a tea party favorite who placed second in Tuesday’s vote, have argued that Cruz would be favored in a runoff because his supporters are more enthusiastic and likely to show up for an unusual, mid-summer vote.

So the Baselice memo was clearly intended to rebut that argument.

Recent internal campaign polling found that Dewhurst has a 65 percent favorable rating compared to 40 percent for Cruz, Baselice wrote. And Dewhurst is heavily preferred by voters who backed former Dallas Mayor Tom Leppert, the third-place finisher.

With 85 percent of the precincts reporting, Dewhurst was leading with about 45 percent of the vote while Cruz had nearly 34 percent. Baselice said that number bodes will for Dewhurst.

“While we should expect a normal post-election tightening of numbers, history demonstrates why Dewhurst is in a strong position to become U.S. Senator: every Republican candidate with over 43 percent going into a statewide runoff during the last 20 years has gone on to win,” Baselice wrote.

[Eaker]

Dewhurst’s latest blunder is trying to speak Spanish and it comes out as pidgin mexican.

Now the idiot wants to debate Cruz in Spanish.

His biggest miscalculation is that Cruz doesn’t speak Spanish because he is an American.

[ConservativeDude]

any recent numbers on this? seems it has been pretty quiet....