Well - has has been predicting gloom and doom since 2009 - eventually, he is going to be correct.
Correction his predicting started in 2008 and how was 2008?
—Well - has has been predicting gloom and doom since 2009 - eventually, he is going to be correct.—
To be fair, if one predicts something of this magnitude within an accuracy of five years I’ll be impressed. I started predicting it in 2008. I said it could get as bad or worse than the great depression. It sounded nutty.
It doesn’t any more. Many would argue it got worse already (and I believe it has barely started). Real estate has dropped more than it did during World Depression I (WDI). And WDII sees a lot more people who were trying to live off home equity than during WDI. Frankly, countries were a lot more solvent then. This time it is different and it is, fundamentally speaking, much, MUCH worse.
I have little doubt it will end in WWIII just as WDI ended in WWII.
I have a lot of respect for Roubini, because he started telling people that housing price appreciation was “unsustainable” as far back as 2005. He was considered a heretic then. He increased his warnings from 2006 into 2007, and people started saying he was a nutjob.
Then 2008 came along, and people said just what you’re saying here: “....eventually, he was going to be correct.”
Wrong.
Here’s what is actually happening:
Roubini’s predictions are based on sound analysis of what he sees in the debt markets and macro-economic conditions. The timing of his predictions is confounded by the central bankers of the world, who privately and quite quietly see the same problems coming, propping up the world’s asset classes and markets. Roubini’s error is in not understanding how manifestly corrupt the banking cartel is, nor how well they’ve captured the central bankers and political classes to do their bidding.
In this case, Roubini has been saying since late 2009 that:
a) the central bankers learned nothing (correct),
b) the large investment bankers have learned nothing (doubly correct)
c) that another financial implosion is coming, and it will be bigger, harder and longer than the 2008 implosion (which we’re probably sliding into now).
Roubini is, IMO, correct for the right reasons: the policy responses to the 2008 implosion have been exactly the wrong ones. In effect, we have “doubled down on stupid” and when central bankers and governments play stupid games, they win stupid prizes.