Posted on 08/02/2012 4:25:38 PM PDT by lbryce
To project Obama’s 2012 vote I’ll make the plausible assumption that American military fatalities in Afghanistan continue running at the (politically relatively low) average quarterly rate of the past year: 95 or 0.3 per millions of population. At Election Day cumulative Fatalities then would amount to approximately 1500 or 4.8 per millions of population, which would depress Obama’s expected two-‐party vote share by less than a quarter of a percentage point −0.5 ⋅ 4.8 = −0.24%. Baring a really big escalation in the aggressiveness of fighters resisting US military presence in Afghanistan, plausible alternative assumptions about the flow of American body bags during the next four months would only negligibly affect my projections of Obama’s re-‐election prospects.
Now the “bread” part of the equation:
Consequently, growth rates of per capita real disposable personal income over the remainder of the term will be the decisive as yet unrealized fundamental factor in the 2012 presidential election. Calculations in the table 3 show that according to the Bread and Peace model per capita real income growth rates must average out at nearly 6 percent after 2012:q2 for Obama to have a decent chance of re-‐election.
(Excerpt) Read more at aei-ideas.org ...
yeah, but under "bread and circuses", he wins in landslide and stays for life.
We have a winner. That’s exactly why I said it means a whole lottta nothing..
I think this model uses previous history but doesn’t consider the current situation.
The plan of the Baraqqis is to build a majority of dependent voters via 99ers, food stamps, TANF, section 8, HAMP, Obamaphones, “affordable” health care, etc.
A terrible economy and 16% real unemployment aren’t nearly as problematic for Obama as they were for Carter.
Having said that, I believe Romney is going to win.
This is all nice and stuff, but, WHAT MAKES YOU THINK THERE IS GOING TO BE AN ELECTION?
A “CRISIS” will “HAPPEN”,(Iran will attack Israel, islamofacists will attack somewhere in CONUS, etc.) a “STATE OF EMERGENCY” will be declared, and elections will need to be “SUSPENDED”.
Wagers anyone?
Just think a little, who does Putin, Hu, Amadenajad et.al. REALLY WANT IN THE WH? Not a capitalist Mormon with a deep sense of history, a mission of duty, and a deep respect for the people and Constitution. NO, they WANT an ignorant reprobate, communist pig, who kowtows to izslime and runs from a fight like a little girl. Valery has more nutz than “The One.” They KNOW that this little power pig will do ANYTHING to stay in office. They KNOW he just needs the right “crisis.” Stay tuned, he WILL get it, free of charge.
If you were Putin, what would you do?
I hope he is right but he is only 2 for 4 in the last 4 presidential elections.
Sure. Make it substantial, okay?
“This is all nice and stuff, but, WHAT MAKES YOU THINK THERE IS GOING TO BE AN ELECTION?
A “CRISIS” will “HAPPEN”,(Iran will attack Israel, islamofacists will attack somewhere in CONUS, etc.) a “STATE OF EMERGENCY” will be declared, and elections will need to be “SUSPENDED”.
Wagers anyone?”
We will have elections on the scheduled day in November; we had one in 1864 while there was a war going on inside our own borders.
It should be the biggest landslide in presidential history, despite Mitt Romney.
“a “STATE OF EMERGENCY” will be declared, and elections will need to be “SUSPENDED””
The very fastest way i can think of to turn TEA into an armed insurrection that advances on DC and every Federal office in America,, would be for any President to suspend elections. I don’t even think Obama is that crazy.
He knows what happens the moment he announces that. The American Revolution to restore the constitution begins.
There is no way, in this climate, he would even attempt it.
It saddens me when I hear sincere callers to talk radio express concern about that; they are really losing sleep over it.
You’re right, the dependency class has grown since Carter, while the % of Americans paying income taxes has fallen.
And there is also racial/ethnic demographics. The electorate (and nation as a whole) was overwhelmingly white until very recently. Reagan crushed Carter by winning 56% of the white vote; if Romney were to do no better than that now, he’d get routed. Thanks to Republicans stupidly allowing decades of pro-Democrat mass immigration, they face increasingly dim demographic prospects. Texas will probably be a battleground state by 2020 or 2024 thanks to immigration.
Black voters are not going to vote Republican. I think that’s clear now. And it’s clear now that the majority of Hispanic and Asians favor the Democrats. Romney has to hope that enough conservative and right-leaning white voters will show up to vote this year. It’s his only hope.
It’d be great if he could do as well as Reagan did with whites in 1984 (64%) or Nixon in his landslide (67%). I now that’s not likely, as the white electorate has changed too, but I think winning over 60% of the white vote is more doable for a Republican than significantly increasing the party’s share of the non-white vote.
Nope, I’m afraid not. Yes, I agree that if we had a better candidate, then he’d probably be clearly ahead by now and would probably be on his way to a decisive victory.
But the days of Reagan and Nixon-like landslides for the GOP are over. If everything breaks our way, then maybe we get something close to Bush in 1988. But demographics aren’t going to allow for much more, and not even for that much longer.
As the nation becomes less white (thanks to our largely accidental and mostly unwanted policy of unending mass immigration), it will become more difficult for the GOP. Even Reagan couldn’t carry California these days.
This is 0bamanation now and old models don’t work with him. Yes he has a good chunk of distaste for him out there, but he has even more rabid hard core support, more than we’d like to believe. When the blacks, latino’s, gays and white liberals all get together and vote they outnumber us. I don’t see how 0bama can lose......
Then again, I have been in a negative mood and a severe depression for over a year now, so maybe the worst in me is just coming out. But I really believe the SOB is going win even bigger this time around.
Good points, Aetius. Hard to disagree, but disagree I will.
The left has used their last con-man. 2010 is the indicator. The marxist has been unmasked. Their tactics won’t work anymore. The soft-socialists devolve into hardcore totalitarians. More Americans wake up to the philosophical differences. We go back to founding principles. Socialism is defunded at all levels. Socialists are depopulated from the body politic. Freedom is on the march.
live - free - republic
FUBO
After being pinged to the following thread/article, I must admit Daren Jonescu states it (a case for optimism) much clearer than I did in my previous post...
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2914293/posts
(thanks for the pings Publius & c_I_c)
FUBO
I don’t even think Obama is that crazy.“a “STATE OF EMERGENCY” will be declared, and elections will need to be “SUSPENDED””
One problem with suspending elections is that the POTUS is not elected by the popular vote. Each individual state determines how its own Electors shall be selected. State law assumes the existence of the elections - but suspend them, and the states take on the duty of selecting the state’s electors in some other way. Assaying to rig that process in enough states after suspending elections, while maintaining at least a veneer of legitimacy, would appear to be at least somewhat difficult.
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