[Political Junkie Too]

Ping.

[beebuster2000]

after all that, how about just calling it? who wins?

[umgud]

Thank you. I will chew on this for a while, as I always do.

[EGPWS]

So does this mean that to date 0bama is the perceived tastier crap sandwich?

[1010RD]

It’s obvious that America is deeply divided. What happens after another generation is indoctrinated in government schools?

[Tennessee Nana]

Primary 2008 TN went for Huckabee Willard lost McCain won TN in Nov

Primary 2012 TN went for Sanctorum Willard lost ??? will TN win in Nov

[CPT Clay]

Wow!! Thanks for the Ping!!!!

[T. P. Pole]

Thanks for this. Regarding Wisconsin, the Walker results would indicate it might be leaning right. I would think that last poll is an outlier.

[randita]

Below is a list of competitive or potentially competitive Senate races. With input from several FR political experts, I have ranked the list from most to least likely GOP win. The rankings will change as the election season progresses.

Note the designations of seats that represent GOP Holds and those that represent opportunities for Gains. Democrats currently control 53 seats in the Senate (including two independents who caucus with the Democrats), Republicans 47. If Republicans hold all the seats they have currently, they will need to gain four more seats to have a majority.

We will likely lose ME, so we'll need five gains for a majority. As of 8/4/12, the best opportunities for those gains are in the states of NE, MO, WI, ND, and MT.

Where primaries have not been held, I have listed a few GOP frontrunners, but these are only hypothetical and there can be a surprise as there was in NE where Tea Party favorite Deb Fischer beat the frontrunner. If you have input on frontrunners for pre-primary states, chime in.

Links to GOP primary winners' websites are included so you can learn more about the candidates and donate, if you feel so inclined.

If you're interested in polling on Senate races, check out Real Clear Politics Senate Polls.

It's widely thought that the GOP will keep the House, so besides the battle for the White House, the next focus has to be the Senate.

 

8/1/12 - Race for the U.S. Senate Ranked Roughly From Most to Least Likely GOP Win
State	Republican Candidate	Democrat/IND Candidate	Hold/Gain
NE*	Debra Fischer	Bob Kerrey	GAIN
IN*	Richard Mourdock	Joe Donnelly	HOLD
AZ*	Primary 8/28/12 (Jeff Flake#)		HOLD
MO	Primary 8/7/12 (Sarah Steelman#)	Claire McCaskill+	GAIN
NV	Dean Heller+	Shelley Berkley	HOLD
WI*	Primary 8/14/12 (Tommy Thompson#)		GAIN
ND*	Rick Berg	Heidi Heitcamp	GAIN
MT	Denny Rehberg	Jon Tester*	GAIN
MA	Scott Brown+	Elizabeth Warren	HOLD
VA*	George Allen	Tim Kaine	GAIN
OH	Josh Mandel	Sherrod Brown+	GAIN
FL	Primary 8/14/12 (Connie Mack#)	Bill Nelson+	GAIN
MI	Primary 8/7/12	Debbie Stabenow+	GAIN
NM*	Heather Wilson	Martin Heinrich	GAIN
NJ	Joe Kyrillos	Bob Menendez+	GAIN
PA	Tom Smith	Bob Casey+	GAIN
WV	John Raese	Joe Manchin+	GAIN
HI*	Primary 8/11/12 (Linda Lingle#)		GAIN
CT*	Primary 8/14/12		GAIN
WA	Primary 8/7/12	Maria Cantwell+	GAIN
ME*	Charles Summers	Angus King (Ind.)	HOLD
*Open Seat      +Incumbent      #GOP Frontrunner

 

[Pollster1]

In summary, according to Rasmussen’s turnout model, Romney has no “leaning” states that he needs to defend. He has to take at least one of the Obama-leaning states plus all of the tossups.

Leaning Obama:
Ohio - 18
Wisconsin - 10

Toss ups:
Colorado - 9
Florida - 29
Iowa - 6
Virginia - 13

The campaign will change a few positions, but the big issue is turnout. Particularly since turnout will decide several competitive Senate races, we need to get every possible conservative voter to the polls. Freepers can make that happen, and we need to do it this year.

[Political Junkie Too]

Let's take a look at the sensitivity of this polling to bias. Note that these next numbers are the absolute win-lose. The main Electoral College breakdown treats the +/- 1% races as Toss-up.

If we take a look at the impact of bias in the polling, a -1% shift in Obama's poll results and a +1% shift in Romney's changes the race from Obama 288, Romney 241, and 9 Toss-up, to Romney 263, Obama 257, and 18 Toss-up. This makes the expected value 270.29 Electoral Votes, and the probability of Romney winning higher, at 50.62%.

If we make the bias an uncertainty with a minimum of no bias, a maximum of 2.5%, and a likely of 1%, then the expected Electoral vote becomes 273.77, and probability of Romney winning becomes 56.36%.

We've seen some outrageous polling in the past week, but Rasmussen has been generally regarded as the most accurate. Still, it's good to see the spread in results based on potential over-estimation of the Democrat vote.

-PJ

[P.O.E.]

Thought you might be interested in this map too.

at the bottom of the post is a link to a zoomable map of the 2010 house election results.

[InterceptPoint]

Ping to bookmark.

[Political Junkie Too]

Today's Rasmussen poll in Ohio shows the race is now tied. With the prior poll at -2% for Romney, Ohio's 18 Electoral College votes was being probabilistically split as roughly 12.6 going to Obama and 5.4 going to Romney.

With this new poll, Obama loses 3.6 EVs to Romney, and moves Ohio into the Toss-up column. Ohio started the election season at +4% for Obama, in June moved to +2% for Romney, in July moved to +2% for Obama, and is now moving back towards Romney.

Is this the start of the expected trend?

-PJ

[randita]

Below is a list of competitive or potentially competitive Senate races. With input from several FR political experts, I have ranked the list from most to least likely GOP win. The rankings will probably change slightly as the election season progresses.

Note the differentiation between the seats that represent GOP Holds and those that represent opportunities for Gains. Democrats currently control 53 seats in the Senate (including two independents who caucus with the Democrats), Republicans 47. If Republicans hold all the seats they have currently, they will need to gain four more seats to have a majority.

We will likely lose ME, so we'll need five gains for a majority. As of 8/14/12, the best opportunities for those gains are in the states of NE, MO, WI, ND, and MT.

Links to GOP primary winners' websites are included so you can learn more about the candidates and donate, if you feel so inclined.

If you're interested in polling on Senate races, check out Real Clear Politics Senate Polls.

It's widely thought that the GOP will keep the House, so besides the battle for the White House, the next focus has to be the Senate.

Florida, Wisconsin and Connecticut have their primaries today, so by this evening, we'll know who the candidates will be in those states.

 

8/14/12 - Race for the U.S. Senate Ranked Roughly From Most to Least Likely GOP Win
State	Republican Candidate	Democrat/IND Candidate	Hold OR Gain
NE*	Debra Fischer	Bob Kerrey	GAIN
AZ*	Primary 8/28/12		HOLD
IN*	Richard Mourdock	Joe Donnelly	HOLD
MO	Todd Akin	Claire McCaskill+	GAIN
WI*	Primary 8/14/12		GAIN
NV	Dean Heller+	Shelley Berkley	HOLD
ND*	Rick Berg	Heidi Heitcamp	GAIN
MT	Denny Rehberg	Jon Tester*	GAIN
MA	Scott Brown+	Elizabeth Warren	HOLD
VA*	George Allen	Tim Kaine	GAIN
OH	Josh Mandel	Sherrod Brown+	GAIN
FL	Primary 8/14/12	Bill Nelson+	GAIN
MI	Pete Hoekstra	Debbie Stabenow+	GAIN
NM*	Heather Wilson	Martin Heinrich	GAIN
NJ	Joe Kyrillos	Bob Menendez+	GAIN
PA	Tom Smith	Bob Casey+	GAIN
WV	John Raese	Joe Manchin+	GAIN
HI*	Linda Lingle	Mazie Hirono	GAIN
CT*	Primary 8/14/12		GAIN
ME*	Charles Summers	Angus King (Ind.)	HOLD
WA	Michael Baumgartner	Maria Cantwell+	GAIN
*Open Seat      +Incumbent      #GOP Frontrunner

 

[justiceseeker93]

I like Rasmussen as a pollster and he is generally more accurate than others because he does likely voters and generally comes up with a sample whose party identification percentages are closer to the anticipated electorate in November.

But you neglect two factors in your extensive analysis. (1) Those who tell Ras (or, more precisely, his robo-call apparatus) that they are undecided are much more likely to vote Romney than Obama come November, because merely saying you're undecided is actually a vote against re-electing the incumbent. Thus the axiom that undecideds generally break against the incumbent in any race, especially this one where the incumbent is very well known and consistently has job approval or favorability ratings in the 40s. (2) The same goes for those who say they favor a third party candidate, many of whom say that out of annoyance with the robo-call poll. Third party candidate support almost always tails off as the election approaches, and the majority of their supporters eventually go with one of the major candidates, feeling that they shouldn't "waste" their vote. (Do you really think that third party candidates will get the 6% of the vote in Ohio, for example, that Ras shows today? No way!) These respondents who drift away from their third party candidate as the election approaches also tend to go with the challenger over the incumbent.

Moral of the story: don't read Ras so literally as indicator of the November result. Those "hidden" undecideds and third party candidate supporters will give Romney the extra few points he needs in many of the swing states to achieve a comfortable enough plurality in the popular vote (which he even showing now, nationally, in Ras) and with that an almost inevitable majority in the electoral college - barring an Obama fraud factor to a degree never before seen in a presidential election.

If you don't believe me, ask Dickie Morris. (LOL!)

[Pollster1]

This is getting dated, but it’s still a good state by state reference. Thank you again.