Posted on 08/09/2012 5:17:18 AM PDT by pistolpackinpapa
The Obama campaign has spent millions of dollars on ads trying to destroy Mitt Romney; the latest being the "Romney Killed My Wife" ad. The "Tax Return thing" with Harry Reid, even using the Senate floor and his office for political purposes, is another of the latest. Through all of this, the Romney camp has been somewhat impotent in responding. The Chicago Thug Campaign Brigade is winning right now. Negativity does work. Which begs to question....
Could the Romney camp have an October Surprise, or even an earlier "surpise", that will be extremely damaging to Obama's reelection chances? Romney proved in the Primary Season that he can be destructivley tough. Why the laid-back attitude now? Romney is no dummy. I've just got a sneaky hunch that after the Convention, the Romney camp will release something that will be damning to Obama but for now, they're just sitting back grinning and thinking: "Just you wait Barack Obama; just you wait."
This may be due to the media deciding what the poll numbers should be and then adjusting the sample space (oversampling of DemonRats) to produce the desired outcome - not too high, not too low.
Maybe that Michelle hating Whitey video will come out........ Remember that one from 2004?
PREDICTION: This time it will be a desperate Obama who will create an October surprise so bad the government may have to suppress the citizenry using homeland security forces and their hollow point bullets on us.
The BIG surprise is that Romney is following election law which prohibits him from using the monies collected until he actually IS nominated.
After that, it will be most interesting to see what unfolds.
“my biggest fear is Romney fights this tepid fight rather than turning it up a few nothces...people are ready for mullah obama to be hammered...”
But the thing is that running them now, at the beginning of August, isn’t going to do beans when it comes to the post-convention period of Sept and October.
People want Romney to blitz Obama right now. Ok, then what do people do after he did that? Come to FR and cheer? When the public isn’t really paying attention and there is then weeks for your opponent to run counter ads?
Romney doesn’t even have a VP and the conventions haven’t taken place. Let Obama waste his ad money now on spots that get discredited in 6 hours if that’s what he wants.
Do you not remember GWB's 30 year old DWI?
The October Surprise will be coming from Obama. He will propose forgiveness of student loans, and cramdowns on mortgages to the present value of the home. And a few high profile Wall Street bankers will be charged with High Crimes and Misdemeanors.
Unless Mitt has the actual BC or Barry’s college transcripts I don’t see what he could have to counter that.
The race will be decided based on campaigning and advertising in the final two months, when voters finally start listening. The race will be decided based on the differences between our "likely voter" models and reality. The race will be decided based on economic performance in August and September. Mostly, the race will be decided based on the degree to which we can get every living conservative to the polls on election day, and the degree to which ACORN and SEIU can get every dead liberal to cast a ballot despite not having a pulse. We need to make this the highest turnout election ever, to make sure that we expand our margin in the House, take the Senate (likely but not assured), and have the mandate to force Romney to govern like candidate Romney, not like Governor Romney and the man he has been all his life.
Lame. Revealing a DUI from 25 years earlier? Hardly an “October Surprise” (or even November Surprise).
When I think “October Surprise” I’m thinking show-stopper, drop-out-of-race-now kind of revelations.
I don’t think there’s a big “surprise” waiting. I think Romney’s just letting Obama spend time, energy, and money flailing around looking for some kind of attack that will “stick”, while Romney builds up the war chest.
If a particular attack line starts to stick, he’ll let loose the dogs to counter it, but I think he’s saving his own onslaught for after Labor Day, building up to November.
I don’t like Romney, at all, but I can’t deny he’s quite good at running a disciplined campaign.
I am not a big Romney fan but I do not see why everyone is so concerned. Romney’s team has proven that they will do whatever is necessary to win. Remember Florida and the way Newt was smeared? He has been running for President too long to let this slip away, and I see the Obama attacks as desperation on his part. What more can he say about Mitt? He’s already been linked to killing someone’s wife, felonious tax returns and Wall Street. Short of saying he is an Alien from the planet Mars, what else can they throw at him?
This election will be decided in October, not in August. Voters will think about where we are as a country under the One and decide we can do better. I still believe Mitt wins big and enough Tea Party congress critters are going to be elected to keep him honest.
See #29. “Youthful indiscretions” don’t work. “International incident” or “major moral breach” might.
IIRC, in 2004 it was the Bush National Guard Officer Evaluation Reports/Dan Rather.
And in 2000, I think it was the Bush DUI arrest record.
Of course, Obama could still be blowing through "primary" cash, which can't be carried forward to the general election, IIRC.
Why the shifting make up of the sample space then? That number is well known at federal, state and local levels.
Unlike McCain, or Bob Dole, who were running "Because it was their turn", Romney wants this job. I think that he will do what it takes to get it.
Outright libel doesn’t work either.
Thing is: by October, voters are pretty much set on their choice. An “October Surprise” need be devastating enough to convince some 10% of would-be supporters to stay home election day. Not-uncommon screwups from decades past inspiring “meh” responses don’t rise to “October Surprise” status.
Two answers. (1) That number isn't as well known as you might think, if you're referring to the dem/rep/ind breakdown of the population; the number changes based on economic conditions and other news and cannot be assumed static. (2) The samples are random, and fluctuations in those numbers should be expected with random samples - part of the reason for the +/- 3% uncertainty bounds normally reported for a poll of 1000 people. Some pollsters adjust for the difference between their sample demographics and the population, but that runs the risk of missing the fact that party identification is actually changing. Others intentionally slant their samples, but the sleaze in some polling is not the only reason for these results.
Well there are negative ads and then there are Stupid Negative Ads. Dewhurst tried the Stupid Negative Ads in TX and lost by 13 points to Cruz. Just let Obama keep this stuff up; he will pay.
It was all that was talked about the last 4 or 5 days before the election and it did hurt Bush.
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