Posted on 08/16/2012 8:45:43 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
Let’s get a few things straight about the presidential race between President Obama and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney. It’s not a dead heat anymore.
Everyone knew this was going to be a close race, but as of this week, Mr. Romney moved slightly ahead of President Obama. Not by much, maybe a couple of points, but he clearly has begun to move into the lead.
Heading into July, the race clearly was a tie, with the Gallup Poll showing each candidate at 46 percent in its head-to-head daily surveys. But something happened this week that appears to have changed the political equation.
Perhaps it was Mr. Romney’s choice of veteran Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin, chairman of the powerful House Budget Committee. Or more evidence of the Obama economy’s persistent weakness and soaring gasoline prices. Or the tough TV ads Mr. Romney’s campaign has begun running after months of being punched around by an avalanche of negative ads in the battleground states.
Whatever the reason, the numbers began slowly but clearly to edge Mr. Romney’s way, and Mr. Obama’s numbers took a nose dive on his job-approval ratings.
The first indication that Mr. Obama’s shaky presidency was taking a tumble came Monday, when the Gallup Poll’s daily tracking survey showed his job-approval numbers plunging to 43 percent and his disapproval climbing to 50 percent.
Then, on Wednesday, Gallup’s candidate matchup suddenly was leaning in Mr. Romney’s direction, 47 percent to the president’s 45 percent. That’s where things stood heading into Friday.
While a number of factors are contributing to Mr. Obama’s slight decline and Mr. Romney’s rise in the national polls, there is no doubt the economy and jobs are the biggest factors driving this race...
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtontimes.com ...
Ryan isn't fully factored in yet (look at his name recog polls) other than the positive baby bump with probably x more conservatives (minus Freetards) coming back to the ticket.
Yes, remember how Clinton issued a bunch of executive orders just before leaving the White House, either to implement a liberal policy or to embarrass Bush (e.g. the arsenic-in-water regulation).
The polls are finally begining to reflect REALITY on the ground...
Obama cannot and will not get over 42-43% of the national vote, PEROID, and that is if he runs a flawless campaing, and frankly his campaign is a JOKE! Calling it Amateur Hour is an insult to amateurs everywhere.
He is looking at being the only president in the modern era who will end his term with fewer american’s working than were the day he took office, and what’s he want to talk about ?? Romney’s Taxes??? Its a JOKE! no one is listening to him. The publice has written this joker off.
The ONLY people listenting to Obama are basically the dye in the wool leftists.. NO ONE ELSE cares one iota about what he says, because everyone knows what he says is verbal excrement. The electorate has written him compeltely off.
Obama spent over 100 Million dollars to attack Romney and what did it move the needle? Not one bit, in fact his numbers fell.
Now that Romney is starting to respond and tell his story, you will see Obama’s numbers CONTINUE to climb, by October, only the most hard core leftist pundit will even be talking about an Obama re-election with any sort of seriousness... The real discussion will be whether or not the Republicans will get 60 or more Senate seats.
I truly believe Obama will be incredibly lucky to see 40% of the vote on election day. He is poised to be voted out of office by the as big if not bigger margin than any sitting president since Herbert Hoover.
Obama alienated the Blue Dogs, and basically helped the Democratic party create demographic genocide! This is going to be a routing of an incumbent president, the likes of which most living folks have never seen. It is not only going to take out Obama, its going to carry down ticket. Dems have thrown themselves over a cliff following this idiot.
He May, and all of them are recinded by a simple order by Romney signed the day he takes office that says nothing more than this:
All Executive Orders issued by Obama are hereby recinded.
You are correct that those 2 months will see a lot of crap,and we’ll have to stay vigilant, but what he does in those 2 months won’t remotely compare to what he’s done in the last for years, let alone what he’d do in 4 more.
Man. I sure like your positive mental attitude! I hope things progress just well or better than you postulate! My family has added 4 more conservative voters to the rolls recently (my kids reached voting age during this 4 year debacle), so we’re trying to do our part.
If we get 4 more years of Zero, there isn’t much chance that there will be a USA left. At least not a USA that any of us would recognize, or want to live in.
Here's the problem: the Democrats can't figure out how to really denigrate Ryan. And all those recent "attack ads" is making Obama look increasing ridiculous, too. And Biden's innumerable gaffes is making it worse, not better.
And this is only the beginning: people forget that Ryan was one of the brightest people working for the Empower America lobbying organization back in 1995, working at the same time that one Steve Forbes was running that organization. As such, it would not surprise me that Ryan helped Forbes craft that no-loophole flat-rate income tax proposal Forbes proposed in 1996. In short, if the Romney/Ryan campaign announces they would support the flat tax similar to the Forbes proposal, Obama is FINISHED.
I strongly suspect that the fading Obama edge in the polls was entirely fabricated by the media in hopes of demoralizing Republicans. But in private they are seeing the real numbers. Now some outlets are beginning to quietly walk back the numbers in order to keep their credibility intact. If they went into November predicting a Zero landslide and an R&R landslide occurred instead, even the dumbest folks would notice. Then again, the media went into 2010 with cocky assurances that the donks would retain control of the House. I suppose a few people may have wised up then. Or not.
Wow, four in four! Way to go Toadman!
We have three adult voting children now, so we have increased our “next generation” voters by 50%!
Sorry that should say Romney’s numbers continue to climb not Obama’s
This is a very salient point. No President has won re-election by blaming those who came before.
Americans do not like a President who won't own what he's done, or what he hasn't done.
If I were R-R, I'd be mentioning that -- a lot.
I never trust polls.
However, my wife and I just completed a road trip from Louisiana to Maine and back. We did our own little “poll” by looking for Romney and Obama bumper stickers on vehicles on the road.
We lost count of the Romney stickers once we got up over 50 or so, but only saw 3 Obama stickers: 2 in Massachusetts and 1 on Pennsylvania. So our unofficial “poll” says there is a landslide coming in November....and if they’re not in panic mode, they should be.
In trade can be manipulated by anyone willing to spend enough money. It is not a reliable indicator
Bogus MSM meme. They want you to think the race is that tight, so they can ignore the Incumbent Rule, which flatly states an Acceptable Challenger will take 80% of Undecideds versus an Incumbent President.
My only surprise is that the MSM hasn't figured out how to get Undecideds to -1% with a +10 Bobo lead -- yet.
The only poll that shows 3%U is Gallup and they have Mittens ahead viz Incumbent Rule above.
If you drill down into the pdfs of each of these polls, you'd see the Undecideds are still fat and happy:
Valerie was 12 at the time. One doubts she has any real knowledge of the ‘68 convention.
ITs more than that, I don’t think Ryan is the big factor honestly, though I’m sure he’s helped Romney’s support on the right become a little firmer, and helped in the rust belt and Wisconsin especially..
What you have is a simple situation, The election is a referendum on Obama... and since Obama can’t run on his record, a record or DISMAL FAILURE, his only course of action is to attempt to paint his opponent as scarier than 4 more years of him.
The problem is, Romney, whether you like him or not, is a freaking boy scout when viewed within the spectrum of politicians, and so is Ryan. So, for Romney’s many faults, Obama cannot paint this guy as an extremist, and the same is true of Ryan. So they are going to just keep making more and more outrageous claims, because its all they have.
Now the problem is the more outrageous the claims, the more people will be disgusted and refuse to even consider Obama, and the lower Obama polls the worse and more vile the attacks will get and the lower he will go in the polls.
Obama NEVER had a prayer, his only chance was if the Republicans put up someone he could paint as a radical extremist scarier than himself, and frankly Romney cannot remotely be painted that way.
So Obama is out there screaming at the wind, no one other than his core is listening to him and the more he’s ignored the more vulgar and disgusting the attacks will become and the more vile they become the lower Obama will poll which will cause him to make even more vile accusations etc.
The “common wisdom” that this is going to be a close election is NONSENSE. If just 3.6% of the voting population changes their minds about Obama and don’t vote for him this time that did last time he loses. Do you REALLY think as abysmal as this guys term has been that less than 1 in 10 voters who supported him last election WON’T change their minds this election? Come on.. anyone claiming close election or that has claimed close election is either ABYSMAL at mathematics or is focused on the wrong numbers when doing their math.
Obama is utterly unelectable folks, he’s going to lose, lose big, we are talking losing by more than HOOVER lost in 1932 big folks.
And as an aside, on that, HOOVER won in 1928 58.2 to 40.8, then lost in 1932 57.4 to 39.7. Obama won in 2008 52.9 to 45.7. Hoover saw nearly a 10 point swing of the electorate in his 4 years presiding over the market crash, do you really honestly think Obama’s 4 years of disaster aren’t going to see a 3.6% swing minimal? Its just idiotic to promote such a thing. Now yes non farm unemployment was 23.6% in 1932, vs the 9% it is today (13-15% REAL UNEMPLOYMENT), but you also have to keep in mind farming was still what employed most folks in 1932, so that 23% not the same as 23% would be today, today itd be closer to the teens where where are with our real unemployment.
It is CRAZY and was CRAZY to think from the begining less than 3.6% of the electorate would not change from the most failed administration to another option, to think it would only be close to 3.6% and the race will be tight is equally silly.
To hit 40% of less on election day, all that needs to happen is about 6.6% of the overall electorate that voted for him last time has to vote for Romney and he’s at 40%. That represents a little more than 1 in 10 folks who voted for him last time changing their minds. This is well within the realm of possibility folks. However for him to simply lose, all it takes is about 6% of the folks who voted for him last time have to change their minds, thats just over 1 in 20 people that voted for him last time to change their minds... you really think 1 out of 20 people who voted for him last time aren’t regretting that decision 4 years later????
The very idea that he’s not going to lose 6% of his support from 08 to 12 given the state of things is just silliness. He’s not just going to lose, he’s going to lose big. Fight like its neck and neck, but don’t think for one minute this obama can get a second term.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.