FR Exclusive: Political Junkie's Guide To The Elections - Week Ending August 11, 2012

Rasmussen Reports ^ | August 12, 2012 | Political Junkie Too

[Political Junkie Too]

Previous Editions:

August 4, 2012
July 21, 2012
Premier - July 4, 2012

Here is the latest update of my Rasmussen state-by-state presidential model.

The model begins with the final results of the 2008 election, and updates those results with current Rasmussen state polls as they are published.

Final 2008 Electoral College results were Obama 365, McCain 173. My model begins with Obama 364, McCain 174, due to not handling the few split-win states.

Furthermore, 2010 apportionment favored Republicans, leaving us with a starting point of Obama 358, Romney 180.

This Edition's Updates:

Since the last report, Rasmussen published polls in Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Iowa, Ohio, Virginia, and a re-poll in Wisconsin. Obama's Electoral College count has gone down to 260 Electoral Votes to Romney's growth to 238, with 37 EV up for grabs. If the election were held today, the race would be leaning to Obama. Probabilistically, Romney has a 25.1% chance of winning today, an increase of about 13% from the prior report.

In Colorado, the race is still a tie. Romney's gained 2% from the mid-June poll, but so did Obama, leaving the race as a Toss-up.

In Florida, Romney made a slight gain, increasing his 1% lead to 2% from the June poll. Romney's support fell by 1% from June, but Obama's support fell by 2%, inching Florida into the Leans Romney category, moving Florida's 29 Electoral Votes into Romney's column.

In Indiana, the bottom fell out for the Obama campaign. Romney gained 3% from a late-May poll, while Obama lost 7%, making Indiana safe for Romney.

In Iowa, Romney lost 1% from a mid-June poll, while Obama lost 2%, netting a 2% lead for Romney. Iowa moves from Toss-up to Leans Romney and another 6 Electoral Vote pickup.

In Ohio, Romney held his support from a mid-July poll, while Obama lost 2%. Ohio moves from Leans Obama to Toss-up, and Obama loses 18 Electoral Votes.

In Virginia, Obama had some success. Romney held his position from a mid-July poll, while Obama gained 1%, netting a 2% lead for Obama. Virginia moves from Toss-up to Leans Obama and gives him 13 Electoral Votes, making back some of the 18 he lost in Ohio.

In Wisconsin, a big shift happened - again. Rasmussen re-polled his late-July poll because of the primary, and Romney regained his loss plus another 1%. Obama lost 2% from the July poll, but is still in a better place than his 44% from mid-June. While not totally re-flipping, Wisconsin moves to a Toss-up, taking another 10 Electoral Votes away from Obama.

Below is the latest round of state polls. The first number is the change in GOP result from the last poll (or last election if no prior poll), and the second number is the separation from the Democrat candidate's result.

Watch List:

• Colorado: +0% (R +0%)
• Florida: +1% (R +2%)
• Georgia: No Poll (R +5.2%) - not polled yet, 2008 result
• Indiana: +10% (R +16%) - drops out of the margin of error
• Iowa: +1% (R +2%)
• Michigan: No Poll (R -6%)
• Missouri: No Poll (R +6%)
• Montana: No Poll (R +7%)
• Nevada: No Poll (R -5%)
• New Hampshire: No Poll (R -5%)
• North Carolina: No Poll (R +5%)
• Ohio: +2% (R +0%)
• Pennsylvania: No Poll (R -4%)
• South Carolina: No Poll (R +9.0%) - not polled yet, 2008 result, considered Safe
• South Dakota: No Poll (R +8.4%) - not polled yet, 2008 result, considered Safe
• Virginia: -1% (R -2%)
• Wisconsin: +4% (R +1%)

Summary of Electoral College breakdown

Obama - 260								Romney - 238
Safe		Strong		Leaning		Toss-Up		Leaning		Strong		Safe
EV	State	EV	State	EV	State	EV	State	EV	State	EV	State	EV	State
55	California	16	Michigan	13	Virginia	9	Colorado	29	Florida	16	Georgia	9	Alabama
7	Connecticut	4	New Hampshire			18	Ohio	6	Iowa	10	Missouri	3	Alaska
3	District of Columbia	6	Nevada			10	Wisconsin			15	North Carolina	11	Arizona
3	Delaware	20	Pennsylvania									6	Arkansas
4	Hawaii											4	Idaho
20	Illinois											11	Indiana
4	Maine											6	Kansas
10	Maryland											8	Kentucky
11	Massachusetts											8	Louisiana
10	Minnesota											6	Mississippi
14	New Jersey											3	Montana
5	New Mexico											5	Nebraska
29	New York											3	North Dakota
7	Oregon											7	Oklahoma
4	Rhode Island											9	South Carolina
3	Vermont											3	South Dakota
12	Washington											11	Tennessee
												38	Texas
												6	Utah
												5	West Virginia
												3	Wyoming
201		46		13		37		35		41		162

2008 Final Results

Link to 2008 Final Election Map

Current State Leanings

Link to Current Electoral College Map

Using the most recent Rasmussen polls, the results of 32,000 simulated elections are listed in the table below. The definitions of the columns are:

• "GOP Electoral Votes P10” – the value where the probability of the actual number being lower is 10%.
• ”GOP Electoral Vote EV” – the expected value (mean) or probability-weighted average of the simulation.
• ”GOP Electoral Vote P90” – the value where the probability of the actual number being lower is 90%. Or, it is the value where the probability of the actual number being higher is 10%.
• ”Probability of 270” – The probability associated with value 270 (the Electoral College majority goal).

Week	GOP Electoral College P10	GOP Electoral College EV	GOP Electoral College P90	Probability of 270
2008 Election	180	180	180	0.00%
12-May-12	193	220.73	248	0.16%
19-May-12	197	225.09	248	0.23%
26-May-12	206	232.72	256	1.21%
02-Jun-12	216	242.46	266	4.43%
09-Jun-12	221	247.73	275	14.02%
16-Jun-12	230	257.37	282	28.95%
23-Jun-12	231	257.92	282	30.10%
30-Jun-12	225	254.58	282	24.61%
07-Jul-12	225	254.58	282	24.61%
14-Jul-12	225	254.58	282	24.61%
21-Jul-12	219	248.33	276	16.46%
28-Jul-12	215	244.1	272	11.78%
04-Aug-12	216	245.64	273	12.75%
11-Aug-12	215	245.24	273	12.05%
18-Aug-12	225	255.61	282	25.11%

Link to Probability Chart

And in the Senate...

The race for Senate control is still see-sawing. The Republicans, yet again, gain a state here and lose a state there.

This is the latest run of my Rasmussen state-by-state Senate model.

The model begins with the final results of the last Class 1 election, and I will update those results with current Rasmussen state polls as they are published.

Final 2010 Senate results were Republicans taking 47 seats, and Democrats caucusing 53 seats. My model begins with here.

As of now, the Senate still looks to be a 51-49 GOP take-over, with a probability of 84.3%.

Since the last report, Rasmussen published polls in Florida, Ohio, Virginia, and Wisconsin.

In Florida, with the primary behind them, Republican Mack lost 6% from a mid-July poll, while incumbent Democrat Nelson gained 10%, making this race a 47%-40% hold for Democrats. Previously, the July poll had Republicans gaining this seat.

In Ohio, the state appears to be moving towards Republicans. Mandel gained 2% from the July poll, while incumbent Brown lost 2%, making this race a 44% toss-up.

In Virginia, Republican Allen picked up another 1% from the July poll, while Democrat Kaine remains unchanged over three polls. The race is now tied at 46%. Let's hope that the Senate race is a foreshadowing of the President's race.

In Wisconsin, the new poll proves that the last one was an outlier. Republican Thompson went from 52% to 41% and back to 54%, while Democrat Baldwin went from 36% to 48% and down to 43%. Wisconsin is now a safe gain for Republicans.

Below is the latest round of state polls. The first number is the change in GOP result from the last poll (or seat election if no prior poll), and the second number is the separation from the Democrat candidate's result.

Watch List:

• Florida 2: -16% (R -7%) - moves back into the margin of error
• Indiana 2: No Poll (R +2%)
• Massachusetts 1: No Poll (R +0%)
• Missouri2: No Poll (R +6%)
• Montana 2: No Poll (R +2%)
• New Mexico 1: No Poll (R -4%)
• Ohio 1: +4 (R +0%)
• Rhode Island 2: No Poll (R -7%)
• Tennessee 2: No Poll (R +2.7%)
• Virginia 2: +1% (R +0%)
• Wisconsin 2: +18% (R +11%) - moves out of the margin of error

Using the most recent Rasmussen polls, the results of 32,000 simulated elections are listed in the table below. The definitions of the columns are:

• "GOP Senate Seats P10” – the value where the probability of the actual number being lower is 10%.
• ”GOP Senate Seats EV” – the expected value (mean) or probability-weighted average of the simulation.
• ”GOP Senate Seats P90” – the value where the probability of the actual number being lower is 90%. Or, it is the value where the probability of the actual number being higher is 10%.
• ”Probability of 51” – The probability associated with value 51 (the Senate majority goal).
• ”GOP Gain” – The difference between the GOP EV and the current number of seats (47), rounded down.

Week	GOP Senate Seats P10	GOP Senate Seats EV	GOP Senate Seats P90	Probability of 51	GOP Gain
2010 Election	47	47	47	0.00%	0
12-May-12	50	51.24	52	77.01%	4
19-May-12	50	51.24	52	77.01%	4
26-May-12	49	50.75	52	58.53%	3
02-Jun-12	49	50.63	52	54.34%	3
09-Jun-12	49	50.37	52	44.50%	3
16-Jun-12	49	50.37	52	44.50%	3
23-Jun-12	49	50.05	52	34.52%	3
30-Jun-12	49	50.05	52	34.52%	3
07-Jul-12	49	50.05	52	34.52%	3
14-Jul-12	51	52.04	54	91.10%	5
21-Jul-12	51	52.19	54	92.42%	5
28-Jul-12	51	52.17	54	92.18%	5
04-Aug-12	50	51.33	53	75.39%	4
11-Aug-12	50	51.43	53	78.01%	4
18-Aug-12	50	51.76	53	84.33%	4

Link to Senate Probability Chart

-PJ

[Political Junkie Too]

Ping to the latest report.

-PJ

[gleeaikin]

Given the impact of the third party Nadar vote for the Bush election, I would like to see some analysis of the potential impact of the Libertarian Party, Green Party, and Goode and Rohmer third party vote probabilities.

[Political Junkie Too]

I think the impact shows up in the totals. For example, in Ohio the vote is tied at 45%. Other candidates get 6%, and 4% are undecided. The candidates that you list would show up in that 6%.

Are you asking whether that 6% is coming from Romney's or Obama's total, or whether they would go to neither and the voter will just stay home, or whether they would still vote for the 3rd party candidate on election day?

Most people think that the undecided vote tends to break for the challenger, because if they supported the incumbent they'd already have made up their mind. Along those lines, one could surmise that the 3rd party vote is also a protest against the incumbent moreso than a refusal to support the challenger.

I use Rasmussen's public polling data, so I'm not diving (yet) into the details where 3rd party insights may lie. That said, I'm 100% certain that a 3rd party candidate will not win the Presidency.

-PJ

[campaignPete R-CT]

excellent.

got my own guide to Central CT.
targetted libs in the state House

Southington (open)
Cheshire (vickie)
Wethersfield (Morin)
Manchester (open)
W Hartford (new guy)
Bristol (wright)

I think we can win 3 or 4 of these seats that are currently DEM.

[Paperdoll]

Read “Battle Hymn, the Sinister New World Order” yet? Why not?

[gleeaikin]

I too am certain that a third party candidate will not win. The question is how much will one candidate or the other be hurt by them. The Libertarians and Goode supporters will probably draw from the Republican side. The Greens will tend to be from the Democrats. Not sure what the trend would be for Rohmer. There is a party, I think called Peace and Freedom in California which would probably draw from the Democrats. I’m not sure what else is out there. Given the growth of green parties in Europe, I wonder about the future of the Green Party in the US.

[InterceptPoint]

Anybody else getting a little worried about Romney slipping 5-6 points in last couple of weeks in the Rasmussen poll?

[gleeaikin]

Hear is another interesting link examining polls from a number of different angles, with lots of charts and data. Probably a good one to bookmark for on going follow-up. PJT—You might want to post this one too. My computer skills are weak.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

[Political Junkie Too]

I'm starting to look at the toplines. I'll let you all know if I see any trends.

I want to be careful about what I post, because the toplines are by subscription and I don't want to violate any copywrite or ownership laws. So far, I've only been using the content on the free side of Rasmussen's site.

I'm going to try to create some composite measures that don't expose Rasmussen's pay-data, if possible.

-PJ

[Political Junkie Too]

I know about Nate Silver. He's the NYT guru. I don't want to post his stuff because it's the NYT and easily accessible, and the NYT is on the excerpt list.

He's doing the same thing I'm doing, but he has vastly more resources at his disposal. I'm just doing this as a hobby.

Besides, I'm limiting myself to Rasmussen's polling data. The others are using multiple polls, plus past history, and their own thoughts on what the trends are despite what spot polls might be saying.

I'm staying way from saucing up the conclusions, and am staying strictly with what the data is saying on a weekly basis.

-PJ

[Political Junkie Too]

Let's see what the post-Ryan polls look like. Also the convention bounce.

I heard that Romney was somewhat limited in responding to Obama's lies because Romney spent most of his primary funds and has to wait for the general election to begin before he can start spending again. Since Obama was unopposed, he still has his primary funds to spend attacking Romney.

Hopefully, Obama's lies were so over-the-top that Romney doesn't need to respond; the people will be naturally turned off by Obama's extreme antics.

The Ohio poll may be a bellwether.

-PJ

[X-spurt]

My read is Romney's slip is temporary and likely due to the massive nobama ad campaign this last month, which even though sounds a bit early for so much ads, the nobama camp is in a life or death struggle to get their 2008 voters re-energized (which does not seems to be working very well).

GOP will get a bump following the Convention as more Indies start listening, nobama will start to run low on funds and the final 3 or 4 weeks may see nobama unable to put together many ads. By then it'll almost be a done deal anyway regardless of how various polls want to push.

One thing I have noted, dems and nobama in particular are so emotionally tied to their far left ideology they give away their fear with body language. The worse their internal polls show, the more desperate they will come across. Desperation never gins up support.

[1010RD]

Excellent and good stuff. The movement for the most part is in the right direction. I think VA will go for Romney in the end.

[randita]

Below is a list of competitive or potentially competitive Senate races. With input from several FR political experts, I have ranked the list from most to least likely GOP win. The rankings will change as the election season progresses.

Note the differentiation between the seats that represent GOP Holds and those that represent opportunities for Gains. Democrats currently control 53 seats in the Senate (including two independents who caucus with the Democrats), Republicans 47. If Republicans hold all the seats they have currently, they will need to gain four more seats to have a majority.

We will likely lose ME, so we'll need five gains for a majority. As of 8/19/12, the best opportunities for those gains are in the states of NE, MO, WI, ND, and MT.

Links to GOP primary winners' websites are included so you can learn more about the candidates and donate, if you feel so inclined.

If you're interested in all polling on Senate races, check out Real Clear Politics Senate Polls.

It's widely thought that the GOP will keep the House, so besides the battle for the White House, the next focus has to be the Senate.

 

8/19/12 Race for the U.S. Senate Ranked Roughly From Most to Least Likely GOP Win
State	Republican Candidate	Democrat/IND Candidate	Hold OR Gain
NE*	Debra Fischer	Bob Kerrey	GAIN
AZ*	Primary 8/28/12 (Jeff Flake#)		HOLD
IN*	Richard Mourdock	Joe Donnelly	HOLD
MO	Todd Akin	Claire McCaskill+	GAIN
WI*	Tommy Thompson	Tammy Baldwin	GAIN
NV	Dean Heller+	Shelley Berkley	HOLD
ND*	Rick Berg	Heidi Heitcamp	GAIN
MT	Denny Rehberg	Jon Tester*	GAIN
MA	Scott Brown+	Elizabeth Warren	HOLD
VA*	George Allen	Tim Kaine	GAIN
OH	Josh Mandel	Sherrod Brown+	GAIN
FL	Connie Mack	Bill Nelson+	GAIN
MI	Pete Hoekstra	Debbie Stabenow+	GAIN
NM*	Heather Wilson	Martin Heinrich	GAIN
NJ	Joe Kyrillos	Bob Menendez+	GAIN
PA	Tom Smith	Bob Casey+	GAIN
HI*	Linda Lingle	Mazie Hirono	GAIN
WV	John Raese	Joe Manchin+	GAIN
CT*	Linda McMahon	Chris Murphy	GAIN
ME*	Charles Summers	Angus King (Ind.)	HOLD
WA	Michael Baumgartner	Maria Cantwell+	GAIN
*Open Seat      +Incumbent      #GOP Frontrunner

 

[SharpRightTurn]

BTTT

[justiceseeker93]

Given the impact of the third party Nadar vote for the Bush election, I would like to see some analysis of the potential impact of the Libertarian Party, Green Party, and Goode and Rohmer third party vote probabilities.

I'll be shocked if the third parties combined will get anything more than 2% of the total national popular vote. That would be a generous estimate. And Nader's impact on the Bush election in 2000 was merely the result of a very unusually tight race in Florida: 500+ votes separating Bush and Gore out of more than 5 million total votes cast which happened to be decisive for Bush's margin in the electoral college. (It was not because of any unusual strength for Nader's Green Party candidacy.) The probability of a similar occurrence this year is very small.

That's why when you see a Ras poll indicating that 6% in a particular state (like Ohio this week) prefer a third party candidate, you can bet your farm that the majority of those third party people will either stay home or vote for one of the major candidates, with Romney getting more of their votes than Obama. Remember that some people who receive a robo-call from a pollster will prefer, because they are uncomfortable talking to an electronic voice about Obama, to wimp out and say they're undecided or are supporting another candidate.

Obama can't mathematically win re-election with only 45% of the popular vote. He won't be getting very much more from the segment of voters who are now telling a pollster that they are undecided or voting third party, certainly not enough to push him past Romney.

[RedMDer]

FReepers who believe in and support our pro-life, pro-family, pro-limited government conservative causes, enjoy reading and participating on FR, think it's a worthwhile endeavor and would like to help us keep it going. Please click the link. The Republic you save may be your own.

FReepers who believe in and support our pro-life, pro-family, pro-limited government conservative causes, enjoy reading and participating on FR, think it's a worthwhile endeavor and would like to help us keep it going. Please click the link. The Republic you save may be your own.

---

FReepers who believe in and support our pro-life, pro-family, pro-limited government conservative causes, enjoy reading and participating on FR, think it's a worthwhile endeavor and would like to help us keep it going.
Please click the link.
The Republic you save may be your own.

[Political Junkie Too]

And don't forget that if Gore had won his home state or Clinton's home state, Florida would not have mattered - making a 3rd party impact moot.

-PJ

[rbmillerjr]

Keep in mind that the organization that does a meta analysis of only Likely Voters...is showing Romney with 294 EVs right now, where Lean states are counted.