Posted on 08/22/2012 12:20:32 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
There's no way that Republicans can lose a Senate race in Missouri while winning two in Massachusetts and Connecticut ... right? Would Spock have to wear a goatee in that universe? Rasmussen’s new poll in the Nutmeg State shows Republican nominee Linda McMahon out to a slight lead over Democratic nominee Chris Murphy in their first look at the general election race for Joe Lieberman's US Senate seat:
Former wrestling executive Linda McMahon holds a narrow lead over Democratic Congressman Chris Murphy in Rasmussen Reports’ first look at Connecticut’s U.S. Senate race.
A new telephone survey of Likely Voters in Connecticut shows McMahon with 49% of the vote to Murphy’s 46%. One percent (1%) prefer some other candidate, and five percent (5%) are undecided.
McMahon will surely make Murphy's support for ObamaCare a big issue in the election, but Rasmussen sees that as more of a push:
Murphy voted in favor of President Obama’s health care reform law and has publicly stated that the law will save money on Medicare. When it comes to the future of Medicare, 44% of Connecticut voters are scared more by the president’s health care law than the reform proposal by Mitt Romney’s running mate Paul Ryan. But just as many (43%) say they are more scared of Ryan’s proposal on Medicare. Connecticut voters are more evenly divided on the question than voters are nationwide.
Eighty percent (80%) of Connecticut voters who fear the health care law’s impact on Medicare more support McMahon. Murphy is backed by 77% of those who fear Ryan’s plan for Medicare more.
This can’t be right, can it? Rasmussen must be using a Republican-friendly sample, people will assume … but they’d be wrong. In fact, the sample D/R/I (46/32/22) more closely resembles the 2008 Democratic wave exit polls (43/27/31) than the 2010 exit polls (39/28/33) for Connecticut. Remember that Republicans lost the Senate seat in 2010 even with the narrower gap in turnout, too. Murphy has a seven-point lead among women, which Rasmussen oversamples (56/44) in comparison to 2008 (53/47) and 2010 (49/51). The poll sample, if anything, might be tilted a little in Murphy’s favor.
So how does McMahon get her lead? She has a 24-point margin among independents, 55/31, for one thing. McMahon only trails by nine among voters under 40 (40/49), but gets a majority of the other two age demos, including an 18-point lead among seniors. Both candidates are seen favorably by voters, but McMahon’s 54/43 is slightly better than Murphy’s 50/41. Among independents, though, McMahon again far outpaces Murphy, with a 57/36 compared to Murphy’s 38/46 — and only 6% of independents view Murphy “very favorably,” as opposed to 23% for McMahon.
The big difference, besides the obvious advantage among independents, is probably the economy. Democrats will be on defense, especially Murphy, who currently has a seat in the House. Only 5% of voters rate the economy as “good,” with no one rating it excellent. A majority of 57% rate it “poor,” and another 37% only rate it “fair.” That will not help an incumbent, not even in Connecticut.
If McMahon can maintain her advantage over Murphy, the GOP may get an unexpected pickup to make up for the now-expected loss in Missouri. It might also force Obama to spend some resources to make sure McMahon doesn’t drive enough turnout to have Connecticut voters thinking about change at the very top of the ticket, too.
I expect the final tally in the POTUS race to not be close. Current polls in no way, shape, or form are reflecting reality in terms of motivation to remove this POS from office. I predict that turnout on the GOP will be shockingly big.
Post the picture of the Vulcan chick in her mirror universe uniform!! Now that’s a nice visual!
The discussion of numbers is too esoteric for many. Ehe visceral issue of a Death Panel is far more effective politically.
Madison - Rolling on from last week’s primary victory, Republican Tommy Thompson leads Democrat Tammy Baldwin in the U.S. Senate race, two new polls show.
A poll by Marquette University Law School found the former governor leading the U.S. representative from Madison by 50%-41%. That lead for the former longtime governor and former federal Health and Human Services secretary was just larger than the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 4.2% percentage points.
The telephone poll was conducted on August 16-19 with 576 likely voters and included cellphones in its sample.
Also Wednesday, a new poll by Democratic firm Public Policy Polling gave Thompson a 49%-44% lead, a bump from a poll by the firm in July that had the pair tied at 45%. The margin is still just within the 2.7% margin of error for the poll, which surveyed 1,308 likely voted using an automated telephone survey.
Obama has a MAX popular vote number of 42-43%, and thats if he runs a perfect campaign, his campaign is a joke. I Honestly think this guy will be LUCKY to hit 40% of the vote on election day. He may very well get a lower pecentage of the vote than Hoover in 1932. We are looking at a repudiation of an administration of epic proportions folks... This isn’t going to be a squeaker.
Obviously fight like it is, but there is no way its going ot happen.
If everything were to remain static from 2008 to today just 1 in 14 obama voters would have to change their minds for him to lose. Does anyone really thing a guy who has presided over the biggest disaster of an administration in 100 years isn’t going to lose 1 in 14 of his supporters? Seriously, fewer folks are going to have JOBS the day his term ends than the day he took office!! No president in the modern era can make that claim, not EVEN CARTER!!!
Factor in that things won’t be static from 2008, Republicans won’t be sitting on their hands this time around. I fully expect at the end of the day independents will break close to 2-1 for Romney. IN some polling a full 20% of democrats are admitting they will vote for Romney, when just swing states are polled Obama is down roughly 10 points today... Do you think his numbers can go up??
42-43%, that’s his popular vote max.. and I franly don’t think he’ll hit that.
Sorry, wrong number.
The GOP will take Missouri no matter if Akin or any one of the other two run.
The GOP will lose if there is a write-in candidate.
Leni
Barbara Luna was hot in that episode, too.
I haven’t seen a lot of Linda McMahon, but what I have seen has impressed me. She’s a tough, smart lady. I probably wouldn’t agree with her on every issue (i.e. she’s probably more liberal on some things than I would like) , but Connecticut is another one of those states where I think you have to pick your battles. If she ends up being the equivalent of a Scott Brown, I could certainly live with that as the “replacement” for Joe Lieberman.
I was going to say the same thing...or well, I'll believe it when I see 'Alberto DelRio' drive a FIAT 500 into the arena, instead of the cars ($150K+) that he drives.
Maybe, CT voters are going to pick up 3 house seats (CT-2, CT-4 and CT-5) for the GOP. (CT-1 John Larson and CT-3 Rosie DeNutjob are to LIBERAL to go GOP, even thought John Larson talks - in the district like a conservative - he votes like a LIB and CT-3 is home of New Mexico City (fka New Haven, so Rosie will win!)
Could someone please vote GOP for the state races!! Please!!
The Small towns of the Litchfield Hills are trending Democratic? I hope Roxbury, Bethleham and Morris are Republican.
I hope South Windsor and Glastonbury will go for Romney!! (My towns that I spent time in!! the other town I grew up in (East Hartford won't vote for Romney!)
She had the question of the race last time:
Something like “How do you create a job?” that had her opponent completely deer in the headlights.
Who knows I hope the numbers are true. Two years ago mayve everyone in CT could still convince themselves that Obama would turn it around.
Maybe reality hit them all like a 2x4 in between the eyes these last two years and its dulling the effect of the kool aie.
We’ll see.
Obama got 50% of male voters in 2008. Heh... Anyone think that’s going to happen again? I think not.
CT Goes Republican???
It Is entirely Possible. Don’t sell her short.
If we could get the voter registration rolls clean of non-legal names, and post armed guards at all the Cemeteries to keep the RATS from re-collecting their loyalists, ......
CT’s got a Tax-o-RAT Governor. He may just be enough of a ugly reminder to Get Linda elected.
Yes, most signs if not all point in that direction. The Dims have overplayed their predilections for Marxism, and their media can't cover the Dems for what has happened over the last 4 years and what will happen in the future if there is no change in direction.
Isn't it interesting how wrestling imitates the goings on in the dem party? All the stuff the "bad guys" get away with that everyone except the ref sees. Art, in a manner of speaking, imitating life. Especially how CM Punk schtick of demanding respect, isn't he emulating the crybaby-in-cheif? If I lived in CT Mrs. McMahon would definately have my vote.
Isn't it interesting how wrestling imitates the goings on in the dem party? All the stuff the "bad guys" get away with that everyone except the ref sees. Art, in a manner of speaking, imitating life. Especially CM Punk's schtick of demanding respect, isn't he emulating the crybaby-in-cheif? If I lived in CT Mrs. McMahon would definately have my vote.
Mainstream media predictably has this election as a "horse race" but they are deep in denial. We are going to see a GOP landslide that might well outperform that of 1980.
Furthermore, I believe that Mitt Romney might shock a lot of conservatives who have written him off as a hopeless RINO. The choice of Paul Ryan is only the beginning. Remember that Romney ran successfully for office in what probably is the most liberal state in all of America.
Only a very few Republicans have ever won statewide in Massachusetts over the past 50 years.
I’m skeptical.
2010 was a big year for us — and McMahon was the nominee running against a guy who claimed to serve in Vietnam multiple times and lied through his teeth! She still lost.
The poll is encouraging but we need to see more.
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