Bingo, you hit the nail right on the head. When I saw all those coal miners lining up to support the GOP ticket the other day, I unofficially declared the race to be all over except for the tears and rage on the part of the neo-commies.
Posted on 08/23/2012 8:19:30 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Few pollsters are predicting an electoral landslide for Romney, but two academics from the University of Colorado have run the numbers through a statistical model they built and found Mitt Romney to be the clear winner in November.
LA Times:
Campaign 2012 may have spent weeks stuck on discussions of Mitt Romney's taxes, Joe Biden's rant on putting "y'all in chains" and "legitimate rape" and abortion, but a pair of Colorado political scientists believe the struggling economy will still be the dominant issue and will pave the way for a Romney victory. Using a state-by-state analysis of unemployment and per-capita income, academics Kenneth Bickers and Michael Berry of the University of Colorado project that Romney will win 52.9% of the popular vote and 320 electoral votes. The political scientists discuss their findings here.
Their forecast suggests that President Obama will lose in almost all of the swing states, including North Carolina, Virginia, New Hampshire, Colorado, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida.
The Obama camp might note that the president leads, if narrowly, in most of those states. Pennsylvania is considered solidly enough in the Democrat's column that both sides have stopped television advertising there. But Bickers said much of the polling thus far means relatively little, with much of the electorate still not focused on the race. The academics said their model focuses on the preeminent issue of the economy. Applied retrospectively, the model predicts the correct winner in every presidential contest going back to 1980, they said.
No doubt if the election turns on how the economy is doing, Romney has a chance for a clear victory. Romney's problem has been and will be how to focus the attention of the voter on the economic failures of this president
(Excerpt) Read more at americanthinker.com ...
I don’t think I’d put money in PA just yet, but the rest are very possible.
I think Romney is going to proved Obama a mirror image of the McCain race. VA, FL, IN, NC flips back to GOP easily, whereas Romney could win Iowa much like Obama won North Carolina, and Wisconsin could be the flipside of VA. New Hampshire or Colorado is Indiana...basically just a flip of 2008.
It is likely that eventually, Obama will run out of distractions and in the last 10 days of the race, the economy will move front and center.
This is why we have to prepare for an October surprise.
Zero's team will have to manufacture distractions.
Media will not question them if they make zero look good.
I think Romney is going to win Wisconsin, Iowa, Florida, Indiana, Colorado, and NC. I think Obama will hold Virginia. In this scenerio, Romney needs to win Minnesota, Michican, Ohio, Pennsylvania, OR New Hampshire AND Nevada.
If His Excellency, AKA IWON, gets to see that report while roosting upside down from one of the rafters in the White House attic, he might just blow. It is definitely the time for Romney to turn the fire up even higher. O is wrapped so tight, he will go off with little provocation especially if his internal polls show exactly what that poll shows: him losing most of the swing states.
There has even been a subtle change in the lap dog media lately too. He is actually getting challenged on occasion. His comment yesterday that the OHIO spelling was an altered photo, the press reported it was not. Small almost unnoticeable changes may become more of a torrent when it gets closer to the election. The IWON will not be able to handle it, bank on that.
In light of the documentary out on him, someone should ask him if his apology tour of two years ago supports the contention made in the movie. That would definitely do it!
When they say got everyone right going back to 1980, does that include 1980? If so, this model looks to be a good one. The media that year was way off, as much as any year. If this model saw the underlying fundamentals and predicted Reagan in a big win, I would trust it’s findings this year.
Which leads to my new Nightmare Scenario....
On the night before the election a freak early season Noreaster roars up the East Coast and dumps over a foot of snow from D.C. to Boston.
The City of Philadelphia is buried in blizzard conditions. It is basically shut down. Unable to move or go anywhere, turnout in the Philadelphia region is historically light, allowing Romney to take Pennsylvania.
The next day the NAACP, Urban League, New Black Panthers, and all other usual suspects gin up an outcry that they have been “disenfranchised” and demand a do-over. But nothing in Pennsylvania or Federal Law permits this.
The result is protests, rioting, chaos in the streets, and, eventually, Martial Law.
I’m really hoping it just rains.
“Mitt Romney to be the clear winner in November.”
Be still my beating heart
If Romney fights for PA, he can win PA... Don’t kid yourself. PA Democrats outside of Philly area, are NOT left wing ideologues, they are BLUE DOGS, and Obama has basically lost them.
Romney brings the fight to PA, he very well can win it. If he doens’t fight for it he probably won’t.
Their forecast suggests that President Obama will lose in almost all of the swing states, including North Carolina, Virginia, New Hampshire, Colorado, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida.
Good news ping
Landslide? I can see a tsunami coming in November from my window.
From the article:
“Applied retrospectively, the model predicts the correct winner in every presidential contest going back to 1980, they said.”
Retrospectively, I can correctly predict last week’s weather, and I am not even a meteorologist.
Obama is LOST in the South and the Rust Belt!
Only state in the south he may hold could be VA with the DC area skewing the state. Obama will lose NC, FL
In the Rust belt, the ONLY 2 states safe for Obama are MN and IL. Obama will lose IA,WI,IN and OH easily.
PA and MI are battleground, if Romney fights for them, he can win them. Ff Romney fights for PA and MI, best Obama can do is spend a crap load of time and money hope for a squeaker to hold them, and honestly I don’t think he can hold PA if Romney fights for it.
The polls are crap folks. PA and MI are currently battleground, Romney fights for him, he can win them.
Obama’s flat out animosity toward the Blue Dog voter, makes him a Dead Man Walking throughout the rust belt and south.
Obama, Pelosi and Reid have driven the Democratic party over a demographic cliff. They have lost the Working Class White Voter (the blue dogs) and no democrat can win without this continengent.
Obama is heading for an electoral loss where at best he can do is get 42-43% of the popular vote, and in reality, could very well not even get 40% of the vote. He may get less of the popular vote than any incumbent president Herbert Hoover in 1932, and very well may get less than Hoover did.
And if I remember correctly, the biggest reason this model predicted Carter in 1980 (narrowly, even then) is that Carter was polling well ahead of Reagan in July 1980, double digits ahead in fact.
In contrast, Obama and Romney are polling even in 2012 -- and even THAT is with polls of "registered voters" (instead of "likely") and/or an over-sampling of Dems.
I’m not really impressed, because in retrospect, even if the winners in those races were mediocre, the loses generally stank on ice. [Minor candidates in brackets].
1980 Ronald Reagan vs. Jimmy “malaise” Carter. [”Mister” Anderson].
1984 Ronald Reagan vs. Walter “duh” Mondale.
1988 George H.W. “Reagan’s coattails” Bush vs. Michael “rape my wife, please” Dukakis.
1992 Bill “the con artist” Clinton vs. George H.W. “read my lips” Bush. [Ross “plum loco” Perot].
1996 Bill “I like big butts” Clinton vs. Bob “Bob Dole says” Dole.
2000 George W. “police state” Bush vs. Al “Manbearpig” Gore.
2004 George W. “even more police state” Bush vs. John “the traitor” Kerry.
2008 Obama vs. John “the living undead” McCain.
Bingo, you hit the nail right on the head. When I saw all those coal miners lining up to support the GOP ticket the other day, I unofficially declared the race to be all over except for the tears and rage on the part of the neo-commies.
Obama has OBLITERATED the coal industry, he won’t get 10% of the UMW Union if that’s vote. In fact the UMW Union pulled all money from his campaign, they aren’t giving him a dime.
Pelosi, Reid and Obama have driven away one of the biggest blocks of their voting contingency. Working class white voters... This is why the Rust Belt is looking at a GENERATIONAL shift. Once this group en masse decides to break with generations of tradtionally voting for Democrats, the democrats are DEMOGRAPHICALLY doomed nationally for a long time and that shift is happening folks.
You think the mill worker in Ohio is a radical leftist? Do you think hes voted democrat because he wants gay marriage? Or things someone else built that when he deals with his boss and owner? Hell no. They aren’t socialists, they are just working joes, who have traditionally gone democrat due to generational union ties, not because they believe in socialist or progressive social policies.
They arent’ by and large class warfare types, they just want an honest shot. This administration has effectively spit on them for 4 years, and taken them for granted. Coal has been destroyed by this administration in particular, now I know unions aren’t going to turn Republican overnight, but the rank and file can indeed be wooed away, and frankly there is little need to woo at this point, the dems have pissed on them for 4 years and they are sick of it.
What is happening in the RUST BELT is what happened in the south, its re-aligning and the more radical and open the democrats are to their leftist views, the more this will happen. While the rust belt is not as individualistic as the south, therefor slower to shift, and took more radical democrats to push them away, make no mistake it is happening, and it very well could be like the south a generational shift if republicans when in power don’t overplay their hands, and confuse the rust belt with the south.
InTrade is still at 57.3% for Obama. They have a pretty good record also. I would like to see this improve before I get too excited about a Romney victory.
“Applied retrospectively, the model predicts the correct winner in every presidential contest going back to 1980, they said.”
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